Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2013

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.01 to 9.6%

7 points 2 5-3 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Phoenix 4 Dallas 2	-5.1		-0.1		-0.5
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	-4.0		-0.0		-0.5
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-0.2
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+0.2
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	*-0.2
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	*+0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	*+0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	*-0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Edmonton vs Dallas	-2.7-0.4-0.4+2.7+3.2+3.5				-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.5
Dallas vs Anaheim	+2.9+2.7+2.3-0.5-0.5-2.8				+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.4
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+0.0-0.2-0.2*-0.1-0.2+0.1
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.1
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

71	-83								In		Yes		100															245	*
70		30	5		-	3	0		In		82.4	%	82			18												17	*
69		30	6		-	2	0		In		68.3		88	2		10												41	*
68		29	6		-	3	0		In		58.0		81	10		9												81	*
67		28	6		-	4	0		In		40.7		67	11		21	1											162	*
66		28	7		-	3	0		In		25.4		53	13	0	32	2											334	*
65		27	7		-	4	0		In		15.3		44	16	1	36	3											668	*
64		26	7		-	5	0		In		8.6		32	18	1	41	8											1,199	*
63		26	8		-	4	0		In		2.7		20	20	3	44	12	1										2,228	*
62		25	8		-	5	0		In		0.7		11	17	4	47	19	2										3,724	*
61		25	9		-	4	0		In		0.2		5	13	6	43	28	4	0									6,110	*
60		24	9		-	5	0		In		0.0		2	8	6	35	38	11	1	0								9,698	*
59		24	10		-	4	0		100.0	%	No		0	5	5	23	42	20	4	0	0							15,130	*
58		23	10		-	5	0		99.9		No		0	2	4	12	37	32	12	2	0	0						22,188	*
57		23	11		-	4	0		98.7		No			1	2	5	24	37	24	7	1	0						31,992	*
56		22	11		-	5	0		94.3		No			0	1	1	11	29	34	18	5	1	0	0				44,435	*
55		22	12		-	4	0		81.4		No			0	1	0	3	16	32	30	15	4	0	0				59,691	*
54		21	12		-	5	0		58.1		No			0	0	0	1	5	19	33	27	12	3	0	0			77,218	*
53		21	13		-	4	0		31.4		No				0	0	0	1	8	22	33	24	9	2	0	0		97,458	*
52		20	13		-	5	0		12.7		No				0		0	0	2	10	26	33	21	7	1	0		118,793	*
51		20	14		-	4	0		3.5		No				0			0	0	3	14	29	32	17	4	0	0	140,147	*
50		19	14		-	5	0		0.7		No				0			0	0	1	5	18	33	29	12	2	0	160,495	*
49		19	15		-	4	0		0.1		No								0	0	2	10	26	35	21	5	0	92,518	*
		18	14		-	6	0		0.1		No									0	1	7	23	36	26	7	0	85,891	*
48		18	15		-	5	0		0.0		No								0	0	0	3	13	33	35	14	1	117,245	*
		19	16		-	3	0		0.0		No									0	0	3	16	34	33	13	1	74,495	*
47		18	16		-	4	0		0.0		No									0	0	1	6	24	40	25	4	200,634	*
46		17	16		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	2	15	38	36	8	76,324
		18	17		-	3	0		Out		No										0	0	2	15	38	36	8	127,320	*
45		17	17		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	1	7	31	46	15	198,958	*
44		16	17		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	3	22	50	24	190,977	*
43		16	18		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	1	14	50	34	87,387	*
		15	17		-	6	0		Out		No												0	1	14	50	35	89,220	*
42		15	18		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	8	46	45	159,194	*
41		15	19		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	5	40	56	137,866	*
40		14	19		-	5	0		Out		No													0	2	33	65	117,306	*
39		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	25	74	95,930	*
38		13	20		-	5	0		Out		No													0	0	19	80	75,725	*
37		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No														0	14	85	58,346	*
36		12	21		-	5	0		Out		No														0	10	90	43,438	*
35		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No														0	7	93	31,754	*
34		11	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	5	95	22,239	*
33		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	14,902	*
32		10	23		-	5	0		Out		No														0	2	98	9,721	*
31		10	24		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	6,154	*
30		9	24		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	3,778	*
29		9	25		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	2,192	*
28		8	25		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	1,253	*
27		8	26		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	681	*
7	-26								Out		No																100	958	*

Total:									9.6	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	11	15	23	24	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phoenix 4 Dallas 2	+1.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	+1.0
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+0.0
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.0
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Edmonton vs Dallas	+0.8+0.0+0.0-0.8-0.9-1.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	-0.8-0.8-0.7+0.1+0.1+0.8
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

71	-83								100
70		30	5		-	3	0		82						18
69		30	6		-	2	0		68	20	2				10
68		29	6		-	3	0		58	23	10				9
67		28	6		-	4	0		41	26	10	1			20	1	1
66		28	7		-	3	0		25	28	11	1	0		31	1	2
65		27	7		-	4	0		15	29	14	3	1		34	2	3
64		26	7		-	5	0		9	24	13	5	1	0	36	4	7	0
63		26	8		-	4	0		3	17	11	8	3	0	35	9	12	0	1
62		25	8		-	5	0		1	10	8	9	4	0	33	14	18	1	2
61		25	9		-	4	0		0	5	4	10	5	1	23	20	26	3	4	0	0
60		24	9		-	5	0		0	1	1	7	4	2	14	21	31	8	10	0	1		0
59		24	10		-	4	0			0	0	4	3	3	5	18	27	15	19	2	4	0	0		0
58		23	10		-	5	0			0	0	2	1	3	1	11	16	21	25	7	11	1	2	0	0	0
57		23	11		-	4	0				0	1	1	2	0	4	6	18	21	16	20	3	7	0	1	0
56		22	11		-	5	0					0	0	1	0	1	1	10	10	19	23	11	16	2	5	1	0	0
55		22	12		-	4	0					0	0	0		0	0	3	2	13	14	18	23	8	14	4	1	0	0	0
54		21	12		-	5	0					0	0	0		0	0	1	0	5	4	15	17	16	22	14	5	1	0	0	0	0
53		21	13		-	4	0						0	0		0		0	0	1	1	7	6	16	19	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
52		20	13		-	5	0							0				0		0	0	2	1	9	9	19	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
51		20	14		-	4	0							0						0	0	0	0	3	2	8	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
50		19	14		-	5	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0	0
49		19	15		-	4	0															0		0	0	0	1	5	12	21	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
		18	14		-	6	0																	0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	1	0	0	0
48		18	15		-	5	0															0		0	0	0	0	1	3	9	18	25	23	14	5	1	0	0
47		18	16		-	4	0																	0			0	0	1	3	9	19	26	23	13	4	1	0
		17	15		-	6	0																				0	0	1	3	8	18	26	25	15	5	1	0
46		17	16		-	5	0																					0	0	1	3	9	20	28	24	12	3	0
45		17	17		-	4	0																					0	0	0	1	3	10	23	30	23	9	1
44		16	17		-	5	0																							0	0	1	4	14	28	31	18	4
		17	18		-	3	0																						0	0	0	1	4	14	28	31	18	4
43		16	18		-	4	0																							0	0	0	1	7	21	34	28	9
42		15	18		-	5	0																								0	0	0	3	12	31	37	17
41		15	19		-	4	0																									0	0	1	6	24	42	27
40		14	19		-	5	0																										0	0	3	16	42	39
39		14	20		-	4	0																										0	0	1	10	38	51
38		13	20		-	5	0																											0	0	6	32	62
37		13	21		-	4	0																											0	0	3	25	71
36		12	21		-	5	0																												0	1	19	79
35		12	22		-	4	0																												0	1	13	86
34		11	22		-	5	0																												0	0	9	91
33		11	23		-	4	0																													0	6	93
32		10	23		-	5	0																													0	4	96
31		10	24		-	4	0																													0	2	98
30		9	24		-	5	0																														2	98
29		9	25		-	4	0																													0	1	99
28		8	25		-	5	0																														1	99
27		8	26		-	4	0																														0	100
26		7	26		-	5	0																														0	100
7	-25																																					100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	13	13