Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.09 to 60%

11 points 5 3-1 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+5.5		+0.7		+0.6
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.2
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	*-0.1		+0.1		-0.0
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-7.4-1.7-1.7+4.7+5.4+6.2		-1.4-0.5-0.4+0.9+1.1+1.2		-0.8-0.2-0.2+0.5+0.6+0.7
Columbus vs Calgary	+0.3-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.6-0.1				+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1		-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas					-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.0+0.1*-0.0-0.2-0.1
St. Louis vs Detroit					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vancouver finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

76	-89								In		Yes		100															156	*
75		30	5		-	4	0		In		99.1	%	99	1														113	*
74		30	6		-	3	0		In		97.0		99	1														167	*
73		29	6		-	4	0		In		97.9		99	1														339	*
72		29	7		-	3	0		In		96.9		99	1														644	*
71		28	7		-	4	0		In		92.5		96	4		0												1,085	*
70		28	8		-	3	0		In		90.2		95	5	0	0												1,782	*
69		27	8		-	4	0		In		84.1		92	7	0	0												2,858	*
68		27	9		-	3	0		In		76.9		88	11	0	1												4,384	*
67		26	9		-	4	0		In		64.9		81	17	1	1	0											6,556	*
66		25	9		-	5	0		In		51.6		73	24	1	2	0											9,492	*
65		25	10		-	4	0		In		36.8		62	32	3	4	0											13,133	*
64		24	10		-	5	0		In		22.4		49	40	5	6	0	0										17,989	*
63		24	11		-	4	0		In		11.5		34	47	10	9	1	0										22,845	*
62		23	11		-	5	0		In		4.4		21	48	17	12	2	0										29,287	*
61		23	12		-	4	0		In		1.2		11	43	25	15	4	0	0									35,404	*
60		22	12		-	5	0		In		0.2		5	33	34	18	9	2	0									41,927	*
59		22	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	21	39	16	16	5	1	0	0							48,015	*
58		21	13		-	5	0		100.0		No		0	11	40	12	21	12	3	0	0							53,793	*
57		21	14		-	4	0		99.8		No		0	5	37	7	20	20	9	2	0							32,446	*
		20	13		-	6	0		99.6		No		0	3	34	5	19	23	12	3	0	0						25,055	*
56		20	14		-	5	0		98.0		No		0	1	28	2	12	25	21	9	2	0						22,794
		21	15		-	3	0		97.9		No			1	28	2	12	24	21	9	2	0	0					38,141	*
55		20	15		-	4	0		92.0		No			0	21	1	6	18	27	19	7	1	0	0				36,036	*
		19	14		-	6	0		87.7		No			0	17	0	4	16	27	23	10	2	0	0				25,116	*
54		19	15		-	5	0		70.3		No			0	12	0	1	7	21	29	21	7	1	0				22,953
		20	16		-	3	0		70.3		No			0	12	0	1	8	21	29	21	8	1	0				37,968	*
53		19	16		-	4	0		45.5		No			0	8	0	0	2	10	25	30	18	6	1	0			22,104
		18	15		-	6	0		40.2		No				7		0	2	9	23	30	21	7	1	0			36,757	*
52		18	16		-	5	0		17.6		No			0	4		0	0	2	11	26	31	19	6	1	0		55,427	*
51		18	17		-	4	0		5.5		No				2			0	0	3	14	29	31	16	4	0	0	49,928	*
50		17	17		-	5	0		1.4		No				1			0	0	1	5	17	32	29	13	3	0	44,017	*
49		17	18		-	4	0		0.4		No				0				0	0	1	7	22	34	26	9	1	37,874	*
48		16	18		-	5	0		0.1		No				0					0	0	2	11	28	35	19	4	31,560	*
47		16	19		-	4	0		0.0		No				0						0	1	4	19	36	31	9	25,440	*
46		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	1	10	30	40	19	19,873	*
45		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	4	21	44	30	15,321	*
44		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No												0	2	12	42	44	11,395	*
43		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	7	35	57	8,196	*
42		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	28	69	5,693	*
41		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	2	20	78	3,839	*
40		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No														1	13	86	2,504	*
39		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	10	90	1,649	*
38		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No														0	6	94	992	*
37		11	24		-	4	0		Out		No															4	96	629	*
36		10	24		-	5	0		Out		No															2	98	344	*
35		10	25		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	185	*
34		9	25		-	5	0		Out		No																100	109	*
33		9	26		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	54	*
11	-32								Out		No																100	132	*

Total:									60.0	%	3.6	%	7	10	15	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	-1.2
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	+0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+0.0
Phoenix 4 Dallas 2	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+1.6+0.4+0.4-1.0-1.2-1.3
Edmonton vs Dallas	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0*-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0*-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Nashville vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-89								100
75		30	5		-	4	0		99		1
74		30	6		-	3	0		97	2	1
73		29	6		-	4	0		98	1	1
72		29	7		-	3	0		97	2	1
71		28	7		-	4	0		93	4	4				0
70		28	8		-	3	0		90	5	5		0		0
69		27	8		-	4	0		84	8	7		0		0
68		27	9		-	3	0		77	11	11	0	0		1
67		26	9		-	4	0		65	16	17	0	1		1		0
66		25	9		-	5	0		52	21	23	1	1		2	0	0
65		25	10		-	4	0		37	25	31	2	3	0	3	0	0
64		24	10		-	5	0		22	26	36	4	5	0	6	0	0		0
63		24	11		-	4	0		11	23	37	9	10	0	8	1	1		0
62		23	11		-	5	0		4	17	33	15	16	1	10	2	2	0	0
61		23	12		-	4	0		1	10	22	21	23	2	11	4	4	0	0		0
60		22	12		-	5	0		0	4	12	21	28	6	10	7	8	1	2	0	0
59		22	13		-	4	0		0	1	4	17	28	12	7	10	13	3	5	0	1	0	0		0
58		21	13		-	5	0			0	1	10	21	19	3	9	13	8	11	1	3	0	0		0
		22	14		-	3	0			0	1	10	22	19	3	9	13	8	11	1	3	0	0	0	0
57		21	14		-	4	0			0	0	5	14	23	1	6	8	12	15	5	8	0	2	0	0
		20	13		-	6	0			0	0	3	12	22	1	5	7	12	17	6	12	1	3	0	0	0
56		20	14		-	5	0			0	0	1	6	22	0	2	2	10	12	12	17	4	8	0	2	0
		21	15		-	3	0				0	1	6	22	0	2	2	10	12	12	17	4	8	0	2	0	0
55		20	15		-	4	0					0	3	17	0	1	0	5	5	13	16	12	17	3	7	1	0	0
		19	14		-	6	0					0	2	17		0	0	4	4	13	15	12	18	4	8	2	0	0	0
54		19	15		-	5	0					0	1	11		0		1	1	7	6	15	17	12	18	9	3	1	0	0
		20	16		-	3	0					0	1	12		0	0	1	1	7	6	14	17	11	17	9	3	1	0	0		0
53		19	16		-	4	0					0	0	7		0		0	0	2	1	8	8	16	19	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
52		18	16		-	5	0					0	0	4				0		0	0	2	1	10	9	18	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
51		18	17		-	4	0						0	2						0	0	0	0	3	2	7	15	21	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
50		17	17		-	5	0							1						0		0	0	1	0	1	4	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
49		17	18		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	2	7	14	22	23	17	9	3	1	0
48		16	18		-	5	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0
47		16	19		-	4	0							0													0	0	0	1	4	10	20	26	22	12	4	1
46		15	19		-	5	0																						0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	2
45		15	20		-	4	0																							0	0	1	4	12	24	31	22	6
44		14	20		-	5	0																									0	1	5	15	30	34	14
43		14	21		-	4	0																									0	0	1	7	24	40	27
42		13	21		-	5	0																											0	3	15	39	42
41		13	22		-	4	0																											0	1	10	35	54
40		12	22		-	5	0																											0	0	5	27	68
39		12	23		-	4	0																												0	2	20	77
38		11	23		-	5	0																												0	1	14	85
37		11	24		-	4	0																														9	91
36		10	24		-	5	0																														6	94
35		10	25		-	4	0																														6	94
34		9	25		-	5	0																														1	99
33		9	26		-	4	0																														2	98
11	-32																																					100

Total:									4	3	5	4	7	8	2	2	3	2	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2