SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Florida, playoff odds up 2.2 to 58.4%

9 points 3 2-3 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	-0.5				-0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	-0.4
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.3
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+0.2
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	+0.2
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	+0.2
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*+0.1
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*+0.1
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	*+0.1
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	*-0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*-0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	*-0.1				+0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6					-0.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+5.4+4.6+4.2-2.1-2.2-8.1		+0.5+0.4+0.3-0.2-0.3-0.7		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.7
Winnipeg vs Florida	+5.2+5.0+4.1-1.9-2.1-8.1		+0.5+0.5+0.3-0.3-0.2-0.7		+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.8
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.0+0.0+0.4		+0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.1-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	+0.3-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.6*-0.1		-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	+0.3-0.3-0.2-0.5-0.3-0.2				+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.3*-0.3+0.3				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	+0.1-0.2+0.0-0.4-0.5+0.0				+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1*+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Washington			-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

76	-89								In		Yes		100															459	*
75		31	5		-	4	0		In		97.9	%	100			0												233	*
74		31	6		-	3	0		In		94.6		99	1														478	*
73		30	6		-	4	0		In		91.2		98	2		0												861	*
72		30	7		-	3	0		In		88.2		97	2		0												1,651	*
71		29	7		-	4	0		In		80.1		95	4		1												3,011	*
70		29	8		-	3	0		In		71.8		91	7	0	1												5,101	*
69		28	8		-	4	0		In		62.1		87	12	0	2												8,075	*
68		28	9		-	3	0		In		48.3		79	17	1	3	0											12,796	*
67		27	9		-	4	0		In		36.2		70	23	1	5	0											19,158	*
66		26	9		-	5	0		In		22.7		59	30	3	8	0											27,924	*
65		26	10		-	4	0		In		12.5		46	36	5	11	1	0										39,096	*
64		25	10		-	5	0		In		5.6		33	41	9	16	1	0										53,079	*
63		25	11		-	4	0		In		1.9		21	41	15	20	3	0	0									69,689	*
62		24	11		-	5	0		In		0.5		11	37	21	24	7	1	0	0								88,707	*
61		24	12		-	4	0		In		0.1		5	28	26	26	13	2	0	0								108,743	*
60		23	12		-	5	0		In		0.0		2	19	30	24	20	6	1	0								129,937	*
59		23	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	No		0	10	29	18	27	13	2	0	0							151,010	*
58		22	13		-	5	0		99.9		No		0	4	25	11	28	23	8	1	0	0						169,284	*
57		22	14		-	4	0		99.4		No		0	2	20	5	21	30	18	5	1	0	0					183,282	*
56		21	14		-	5	0		96.7		No			0	14	2	11	28	28	14	3	0	0					193,050	*
55		21	15		-	4	0		89.4		No			0	9	0	5	19	32	24	9	2	0					77,765	*
		20	14		-	6	0		86.8		No			0	8	0	4	17	31	27	11	2	0	0				121,117	*
54		20	15		-	5	0		68.6		No			0	5	0	1	7	23	32	23	8	1	0	0			198,459	*
53		20	16		-	4	0		42.9		No			0	3	0	0	2	11	27	32	19	5	1	0	0		192,084	*
52		19	16		-	5	0		20.3		No				1	0	0	0	4	15	31	31	15	3	0	0		180,539	*
51		19	17		-	4	0		7.1		No				0		0	0	1	6	20	33	27	11	2	0	0	164,559	*
50		18	17		-	5	0		1.9		No				0		0	0	0	2	9	25	34	22	6	1	0	146,037	*
49		18	18		-	4	0		0.4		No				0				0	0	3	14	31	32	16	3	0	126,987	*
48		17	18		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	6	21	35	27	9	1	106,006	*
47		17	19		-	4	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	30	36	18	3	86,809	*
46		16	19		-	5	0		0.0		No									0	0	1	5	21	39	29	7	68,331	*
45		16	20		-	4	0		0.0		No				0							0	2	12	34	38	13	52,744	*
44		15	20		-	5	0		Out		No											0	1	6	26	44	23	39,462	*
43		15	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	3	18	45	34	29,148	*
42		14	21		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	11	42	47	20,455	*
41		14	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	6	35	59	13,858	*
40		13	22		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	28	69	9,242	*
39		13	23		-	4	0		Out		No														2	20	78	5,937	*
38		12	23		-	5	0		Out		No														1	14	85	3,734	*
37		12	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	11	89	2,294	*
36		11	24		-	5	0		Out		No														0	7	93	1,425	*
35		11	25		-	4	0		Out		No															4	96	717	*
34		11	26		-	3	0		Out		No															3	97	423	*
33		10	26		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	241	*
32		10	27		-	3	0		Out		No															1	99	109	*
31		9	27		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	61	*
30		9	28		-	3	0		Out		No																100	28	*
29		8	28		-	4	0		Out		No															7	93	14	*
9	-28								Out		No																100	251	*

Total:									58.4	%	1.5	%	4	7	10	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.2
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+0.1
Phoenix 4 Dallas 2	-0.0
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*-0.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	-0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Florida	-1.1-0.9-0.8+0.4+0.5+1.6
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-1.0-0.9-0.8+0.4+0.4+1.5
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0
Buffalo vs Montreal	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-89								100
75		31	5		-	4	0		98	2					0
74		31	6		-	3	0		95	5	1
73		30	6		-	4	0		91	7	2				0
72		30	7		-	3	0		88	9	2				0
71		29	7		-	4	0		80	15	4				1
70		29	8		-	3	0		72	20	7	0	0		1
69		28	8		-	4	0		62	25	11	0	0		2
68		28	9		-	3	0		48	31	16	0	1		3	0	0
67		27	9		-	4	0		36	34	22	1	1		5	0	0
66		26	9		-	5	0		23	36	27	3	3	0	7	1	0
65		26	10		-	4	0		13	34	30	7	5	0	10	1	1		0
64		25	10		-	5	0		6	27	28	12	9	0	13	3	1	0	0
63		25	11		-	4	0		2	19	23	18	14	1	14	6	3	0	0		0
62		24	11		-	5	0		0	11	15	22	18	3	14	10	6	0	1	0	0		0
61		24	12		-	4	0		0	5	7	21	20	6	11	15	11	2	2	0	0		0
60		23	12		-	5	0		0	2	3	16	19	10	7	17	15	5	5	0	1	0	0
59		23	13		-	4	0			0	1	9	15	14	3	16	15	12	11	2	2	0	0		0
58		22	13		-	5	0			0	0	4	9	16	1	10	10	18	16	6	7	1	1	0	0	0
57		22	14		-	4	0			0	0	2	5	15	0	5	4	17	15	15	14	3	5	0	1	0	0
56		21	14		-	5	0				0	0	2	12	0	2	1	11	8	20	17	11	12	2	3	0	0	0
55		21	15		-	4	0					0	1	8	0	0	0	4	2	16	11	20	18	8	9	3	0	0	0	0
54		20	15		-	5	0					0	0	5		0	0	1	0	7	4	19	14	18	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
53		20	16		-	4	0					0	0	3		0	0	0	0	2	1	12	7	22	17	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
		19	15		-	6	0						0	2		0		0	0	1	0	8	5	20	16	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
52		19	16		-	5	0						0	1		0		0	0	0	0	4	1	14	8	18	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
51		19	17		-	4	0						0	0				0		0	0	1	0	6	2	8	17	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
50		18	17		-	5	0						0	0				0		0		0	0	2	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
49		18	18		-	4	0							0								0	0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	24	19	10	3	1	0	0
48		17	18		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	11	4	1	0	0
47		17	19		-	4	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	4	11	21	26	22	11	4	1	0
46		16	19		-	5	0																	0				0	0	1	4	11	22	28	22	10	2	0
45		16	20		-	4	0							0														0	0	0	1	4	13	25	29	20	7	1
44		15	20		-	5	0																							0	0	1	6	16	29	29	15	3
43		15	21		-	4	0																								0	0	2	8	23	34	25	7
42		14	21		-	5	0																									0	1	4	14	32	35	15
41		14	22		-	4	0																									0	0	1	8	25	41	24
40		13	22		-	5	0																											0	4	18	42	36
39		13	23		-	4	0																										0	0	1	12	37	49
38		12	23		-	5	0																											0	1	6	34	59
37		12	24		-	4	0																												0	3	27	70
36		11	24		-	5	0																													2	21	78
35		11	25		-	4	0																													1	16	84
34		11	26		-	3	0																														9	91
33		10	26		-	4	0																														7	93
32		10	27		-	3	0																														4	96
31		9	27		-	4	0																														5	95
30		9	28		-	3	0																															100
29		8	28		-	4	0																														14	86
9	-28																																					100

Total:									1	3	3	4	5	5	2	4	3	4	3	4	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1