SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2013

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.2 to 68.8%

9 points 4 3-1 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+5.1		+1.4		+0.5
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-5.0		-2.0		-0.6
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	-0.3
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	+0.3
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.2
Toronto 4 Boston 2	+0.2
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	+0.2
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	-0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*-0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	*-0.1				-0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0			+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2			-0.1
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3			+0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1			+0.1
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2			+0.1
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0			+0.1
Columbus 2 Detroit 5			*-0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0			-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Carolina	-5.6-0.2-0.1+5.0+5.8+6.1		-1.0-0.2-0.3+1.0+1.0+1.2		-0.6-0.0-0.0+0.5+0.6+0.6
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.1-0.4-0.2*-0.0-0.5+0.3				+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	+0.3-0.1+0.0*-0.3-0.5-0.2
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.0-0.1+0.3		+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.2-0.3+0.3				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3		-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.1*+0.1				-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.0+0.1*-0.1-0.2-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Washington			-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

77	-89								In		99.0	%	100															513	*
76		32	5		-	3	0		In		97.7		99	0		0												311	*
75		31	5		-	4	0		In		97.0		100	0														657	*
74		31	6		-	3	0		In		94.5		99	1		0												1,226	*
73		30	6		-	4	0		In		91.0		99	1		0												2,251	*
72		30	7		-	3	0		In		88.6		97	2	0	0												3,863	*
71		29	7		-	4	0		In		81.3		95	4		1												6,586	*
70		29	8		-	3	0		In		73.1		92	7	0	1												10,337	*
69		28	8		-	4	0		In		62.2		87	11	0	2												15,969	*
68		28	9		-	3	0		In		49.6		81	16	1	3	0											23,798	*
67		27	9		-	4	0		In		36.1		71	23	1	5	0											34,054	*
66		27	10		-	3	0		In		23.6		60	30	3	8	0	0										46,816	*
65		26	10		-	4	0		In		13.0		47	37	5	11	0	0										62,495	*
64		25	10		-	5	0		In		5.8		34	41	9	15	1	0	0									80,612	*
63		25	11		-	4	0		In		2.1		21	42	15	19	3	0	0									100,921	*
62		24	11		-	5	0		In		0.5		11	38	21	23	6	0	0	0								122,716	*
61		24	12		-	4	0		In		0.1		5	30	28	24	11	2	0	0								142,823	*
60		23	12		-	5	0		In		0.0		2	20	31	23	19	5	1	0								162,423	*
59		23	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	No		0	11	32	18	25	11	2	0	0							71,224
		22	12		-	6	0		100.0		0.0		0	11	31	18	25	12	2	0	0							107,792	*
58		22	13		-	5	0		99.9		No		0	5	28	11	26	22	7	1	0	0						120,491	*
		23	14		-	3	0		99.9		No		0	5	29	11	26	20	6	1	0	0						70,870	*
57		22	14		-	4	0		99.5		No		0	2	23	5	22	28	16	4	0	0	0					78,529
		21	13		-	6	0		99.4		No		0	2	22	5	21	29	17	5	1	0						120,143	*
56		21	14		-	5	0		97.0		No		0	1	16	2	12	27	27	12	3	0	0					199,061	*
55		21	15		-	4	0		90.4		No			0	11	0	5	19	31	23	8	1	0					118,444	*
		20	14		-	6	0		86.2		No			0	9	0	3	16	30	27	11	2	0	0				77,325	*
54		20	15		-	5	0		70.1		No			0	6	0	1	8	23	32	22	7	1	0	0			184,737	*
53		20	16		-	4	0		44.6		No				3	0	0	2	12	27	32	18	5	1	0			172,398	*
52		19	16		-	5	0		21.1		No				1	0	0	0	4	15	31	30	14	3	0	0		153,331	*
51		19	17		-	4	0		7.6		No				1			0	1	6	20	33	27	11	2	0	0	134,181	*
50		18	17		-	5	0		2.1		No				0			0	0	2	9	25	34	22	7	1	0	113,592	*
49		18	18		-	4	0		0.4		No				0				0	0	3	14	31	32	16	3	0	93,397	*
48		17	18		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	6	21	35	27	9	1	75,133	*
47		17	19		-	4	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	29	36	18	3	58,659	*
46		16	19		-	5	0		Out		No										0	1	5	20	38	29	7	44,398	*
45		16	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	2	12	33	39	15	32,777	*
44		15	20		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	5	25	45	24	23,335	*
43		15	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	2	16	45	36	16,409	*
42		14	21		-	5	0		Out		No													1	10	41	48	11,096	*
41		14	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	5	34	60	7,301	*
40		13	22		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	2	27	71	4,521	*
39		13	23		-	4	0		Out		No														1	19	80	2,793	*
38		13	24		-	3	0		Out		No														0	14	86	1,708	*
37		12	24		-	4	0		Out		No															10	90	998	*
36		11	24		-	5	0		Out		No														0	6	93	562	*
35		11	25		-	4	0		Out		No															4	96	301	*
34		11	26		-	3	0		Out		No															3	97	160	*
33		10	26		-	4	0		Out		No														1	1	98	81	*
9	-32								Out		No																100	342	*

Total:									68.8	%	2.8	%	7	10	13	7	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	1	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	+1.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	-1.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	+0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-0.0
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	-0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Carolina	+1.1+0.0+0.0-1.0-1.2-1.3
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

80	-89								100
79		34	4		-	2	0		98	2
78		33	4		-	3	0		98	2
77		33	5		-	2	0		98	2
76		32	5		-	3	0		98	2	0				0
75		31	5		-	4	0		97	3	0
74		31	6		-	3	0		95	5	1				0
73		30	6		-	4	0		91	8	1				0
72		30	7		-	3	0		89	9	2		0		0
71		29	7		-	4	0		81	14	4				1
70		29	8		-	3	0		73	19	7	0	0		1
69		28	8		-	4	0		62	25	11	0	0		2	0
68		28	9		-	3	0		50	31	15	0	1		3	0	0
67		27	9		-	4	0		36	35	22	1	1		5	0	0
66		27	10		-	3	0		24	36	27	3	3	0	7	1	0		0
65		26	10		-	4	0		13	34	30	7	5	0	9	1	0	0	0
64		25	10		-	5	0		6	28	29	12	9	0	12	3	1	0	0		0
63		25	11		-	4	0		2	19	24	19	14	1	14	5	3	0	0		0
62		24	11		-	5	0		1	11	15	23	19	3	13	9	6	0	0	0	0		0
61		24	12		-	4	0		0	5	8	22	22	6	11	14	10	1	2	0	0		0
60		23	12		-	5	0		0	2	3	17	21	11	7	16	14	5	5	0	0	0	0
59		23	13		-	4	0		0	0	1	10	16	15	3	15	14	11	10	1	2	0	0		0
58		22	13		-	5	0			0	0	5	10	18	1	10	9	17	15	6	6	0	1	0	0	0
57		22	14		-	4	0			0	0	2	5	17	0	5	4	17	15	14	13	3	4	0	0	0	0
56		21	14		-	5	0			0		1	2	14	0	2	1	11	8	20	17	11	11	2	3	0	0	0	0
55		21	15		-	4	0					0	1	10		0	0	4	2	16	11	20	17	8	8	2	0	0	0	0
54		20	15		-	5	0					0	0	6		0	0	1	0	7	4	19	14	18	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
53		20	16		-	4	0						0	3		0		0	0	2	1	11	6	21	16	18	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
52		19	16		-	5	0						0	1		0		0		0	0	4	1	14	9	18	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
51		19	17		-	4	0						0	1						0	0	1	0	6	2	9	17	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
50		18	17		-	5	0							0						0		0	0	2	0	2	7	15	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
49		18	18		-	4	0							0								0	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	3	1	0	0
48		17	18		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	1	4	11	21	25	21	11	4	1	0	0
47		17	19		-	4	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	4	11	21	26	22	11	4	1	0
46		16	19		-	5	0																				0	0	0	1	4	11	22	28	22	10	3	0
45		16	20		-	4	0																						0	0	1	4	13	24	29	20	7	1
44		15	20		-	5	0																							0	0	1	5	16	29	30	16	3
43		15	21		-	4	0																								0	0	2	8	22	34	26	7
42		14	21		-	5	0																									0	0	4	14	32	35	15
41		14	22		-	4	0																										0	1	7	25	42	24
40		13	22		-	5	0																											0	3	18	43	36
39		13	23		-	4	0																											0	1	10	39	50
38		13	24		-	3	0																												1	6	32	60
37		12	24		-	4	0																												0	4	27	69
36		11	24		-	5	0																													2	19	79
35		11	25		-	4	0																													0	12	88
34		11	26		-	3	0																														11	89
33		10	26		-	4	0																													1	5	94
32		9	26		-	5	0																														6	94
9	-31																																					100

Total:									3	4	4	5	6	7	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0