SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

New York Islanders Playoff Chances 2013

Lost to Pittsburgh 0-5, playoff odds down 18.8 to 30.6%

8 points 4 5-0 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	-8.2		-1.0		-0.8
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	-7.8		-0.5		-0.7
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	-0.7
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.4
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+0.2		+0.1		+0.1
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	+0.2
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	*-0.2
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+0.2
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+0.2
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*+0.2
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*-0.1
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	-0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1			+0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2			-0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	-6.0-0.9-1.1+4.5+5.2+5.6		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.6-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.5+0.6
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.1-0.4-0.5+0.0*-0.2+0.3
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.1-0.4-0.2-0.3-0.1+0.3
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.0-0.2+0.3
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.5+0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	+0.2-0.3-0.1-0.3-0.5*-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.4-0.4*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Islanders finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

74	-86								In		Yes		100															262	*
73		30	4		-	5	0		In		92.5	%	98			3												40	*
72		30	5		-	4	0		In		88.6		97	1		1												79	*
71		30	6		-	3	0		In		83.6		97	1		2												183	*
70		29	6		-	4	0		In		73.6		94	4		2												368	*
69		28	6		-	5	0		In		67.5		91	6		2												767	*
68		28	7		-	4	0		In		53.5		84	10	0	6	0											1,388	*
67		27	7		-	5	0		In		40.1		75	16	1	9	0											2,435	*
66		27	8		-	4	0		In		26.0		64	22	1	12	0											4,033	*
65		26	8		-	5	0		In		15.2		52	26	2	18	1											6,800	*
64		26	9		-	4	0		In		7.1		38	31	4	24	2	0	0									10,761	*
63		25	9		-	5	0		In		2.5		24	33	7	30	5	0										16,121	*
62		25	10		-	4	0		In		0.9		14	31	11	35	9	1	0									24,057	*
61		24	10		-	5	0		In		0.1		7	25	14	36	16	2	0	0								34,244	*
60		24	11		-	4	0		In		0.0		2	17	16	33	25	6	1	0								46,922	*
59		23	11		-	5	0		100.0	%	No		1	9	16	25	33	14	2	0	0							62,445	*
58		23	12		-	4	0		99.9		No		0	4	14	16	34	24	8	1	0							80,492	*
57		22	12		-	5	0		99.4		No		0	1	10	7	27	33	17	4	1	0						100,000	*
56		22	13		-	4	0		97.0		No			0	6	2	15	31	29	13	3	0	0					121,385	*
55		21	13		-	5	0		88.9		No			0	4	0	6	21	33	25	9	2	0	0				141,556	*
54		21	14		-	4	0		70.0		No			0	2	0	1	9	25	33	22	7	1	0	0			85,831	*
		20	13		-	6	0		71.6		No			0	2	0	1	9	26	33	21	7	1	0				76,006	*
53		20	14		-	5	0		45.0		No			0	1	0	0	3	13	29	32	18	5	1	0	0		178,303	*
52		20	15		-	4	0		21.7		No			0	0		0	0	4	17	31	30	14	3	0	0		191,998	*
51		19	15		-	5	0		7.6		No				0		0	0	1	7	21	34	26	10	1	0		74,925
		20	16		-	3	0		7.7		No				0			0	1	7	21	33	26	10	2	0	0	124,704	*
50		19	16		-	4	0		2.2		No				0			0	0	2	11	28	34	20	5	0	0	72,171
		18	15		-	6	0		1.8		No				0			0	0	2	9	25	35	22	6	1	0	127,872	*
49		18	16		-	5	0		0.4		No				0				0	0	3	15	32	32	14	2	0	73,617
		19	17		-	3	0		0.4		No				0			0	0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	122,465	*
48		18	17		-	4	0		0.1		No				0			0		0	1	6	22	36	26	8	1	100,274	*
		17	16		-	6	0		0.1		No								0	0	1	7	23	36	26	7	1	86,378	*
47		17	17		-	5	0		0.0		No									0	0	2	12	31	35	16	2	173,578	*
46		17	18		-	4	0		Out		No										0	1	6	23	39	27	6	155,509	*
45		16	18		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	2	13	36	37	12	135,615	*
44		16	19		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	1	7	28	44	21	114,508	*
43		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	3	19	46	32	93,610	*
42		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	12	43	44	75,361	*
41		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	7	37	55	57,239	*
40		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No													0	4	30	66	43,840	*
39		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	2	23	76	31,731	*
38		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	16	83	22,233	*
37		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	11	88	15,566	*
36		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	8	92	10,272	*
35		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No														0	5	95	6,608	*
34		11	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	3	97	4,075	*
33		10	24		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	2,439	*
32		10	25		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	1,438	*
31		9	25		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	826	*
8	-30								Out		No																100	1,130	*

Total:									30.6	%	0.2	%	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	11	9	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	+1.5
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	+1.5
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-0.1
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	-0.1
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.0
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	-0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	-0.0
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	+0.0
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	+1.2+0.2+0.2-0.9-1.0-1.1
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1-0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

74	-86								100
73		30	4		-	5	0		93	5					3
72		30	5		-	4	0		89	9	1				1
71		30	6		-	3	0		84	13	1				2
70		29	6		-	4	0		74	20	4				2
69		28	6		-	5	0		68	24	6				2	0
68		28	7		-	4	0		54	31	9	0	0		6		0
67		27	7		-	5	0		40	35	15	1	1		9	0	0
66		27	8		-	4	0		26	38	20	2	1		12	1	0
65		26	8		-	5	0		15	37	22	5	2	0	16	2	1	0
64		26	9		-	4	0		7	31	23	9	4	0	20	4	2	0	0		0
63		25	9		-	5	0		3	22	19	14	7	0	22	8	5	0	0
62		25	10		-	4	0		1	13	13	17	10	1	21	13	9	0	1	0	0
61		24	10		-	5	0		0	7	7	18	12	3	17	19	15	2	2	0	0		0
60		24	11		-	4	0		0	2	3	14	11	5	10	22	20	5	6	0	1	0	0
59		23	11		-	5	0			1	1	9	9	7	5	21	20	13	12	1	2	0	0		0
58		23	12		-	4	0			0	0	4	5	8	1	14	13	20	19	6	7	0	1	0	0
57		22	12		-	5	0			0	0	1	3	8	0	7	6	21	18	14	15	3	4	0	1	0
56		22	13		-	4	0				0	0	1	5	0	2	1	14	10	21	19	10	11	1	3	0	0	0	0
55		21	13		-	5	0					0	0	3	0	0	0	5	3	18	14	19	18	7	9	2	0	0	0	0
54		21	14		-	4	0					0	0	2		0	0	1	0	9	5	20	16	17	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
53		20	14		-	5	0					0	0	1		0		0	0	3	1	12	7	21	18	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
52		20	15		-	4	0					0	0	0				0	0	0	0	4	2	15	10	19	21	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
51		19	15		-	5	0						0	0				0		0	0	1	0	6	3	10	19	23	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
50		19	16		-	4	0							0						0	0	0	0	2	1	3	10	18	24	21	13	6	2	0	0
		18	15		-	6	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	2	7	15	23	23	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
49		18	16		-	5	0							0						0		0		0	0	0	2	7	14	23	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
48		18	17		-	4	0							0						0		0		0	0	0	0	2	5	13	22	25	20	10	3	1	0	0
47		17	17		-	5	0																	0		0	0	0	1	5	12	22	26	20	10	3	0	0
46		17	18		-	4	0																				0	0	0	1	5	13	23	27	20	9	2	0
45		16	18		-	5	0																					0	0	0	1	5	15	26	28	18	6	1
44		16	19		-	4	0																							0	0	1	7	18	30	28	13	2
43		15	19		-	5	0																							0	0	0	2	10	24	33	23	6
42		15	20		-	4	0																								0	0	1	4	16	33	33	13
41		14	20		-	5	0																									0	0	2	9	28	40	22
40		14	21		-	4	0																									0	0	1	4	20	42	33
39		13	21		-	5	0																										0	0	2	13	40	45
38		13	22		-	4	0																											0	1	7	35	57
37		12	22		-	5	0																											0	0	4	28	67
36		12	23		-	4	0																												0	2	22	76
35		11	23		-	5	0																													1	15	84
34		11	24		-	4	0																													0	11	88
33		10	24		-	5	0																													0	7	93
32		10	25		-	4	0																													0	5	95
31		9	25		-	5	0																													0	4	96
30		9	26		-	4	0																													0	2	98
29		9	27		-	3	0																														2	98
28		8	27		-	4	0																															100
27		8	28		-	3	0																														2	98
8	-26																																					100

Total:									0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	4