Boston Bruins Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.8 to 54.1%

36 points 16 10-4

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.5				-0.1
Devils 2 Senators 3	-0.4		+0.1
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.3
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*-0.1				*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Capitals vs Bruins	-6.3-1.0-1.2+4.5+4.8+5.3		-0.5*-0.2-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.4		-0.6-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.5
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.6-1.0-0.7+0.1-0.1+0.9				-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1
Sabres vs Stars	-0.3-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.4				-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	+0.2-0.9-0.7-0.3-0.4+0.2				+0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.0
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bruins finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-140						In		97.3	%	100																187	*
117		38	9		-	5	In		96.5		99	1															114	*
116		38	10		-	4	In		90.7		98	1	1														226	*
115		37	10		-	5	In		84.0		97	1	1														313	*
114		37	11		-	4	In		81.8		96	2	3		0												588	*
113		36	11		-	5	In		72.0		93	2	4		0												871	*
112		35	11		-	6	In		63.8		89	3	8		0												1,349	*
111		35	12		-	5	In		53.9		84	6	10		0												1,976	*
110		34	12		-	6	In		44.7		79	8	12	0	1												2,981	*
109		34	13		-	5	In		33.6		69	10	19	0	2		0										4,324	*
108		33	13		-	6	In		22.8		62	12	24	0	2		0										5,992	*
107		33	14		-	5	In		14.5		50	15	30	0	4		0										8,166	*
106		32	14		-	6	In		8.3		40	17	35	1	8		0										10,684	*
105		32	15		-	5	In		3.9		28	18	40	1	12	0	1	0									13,897	*
104		31	15		-	6	100.0	%	1.5		20	17	41	3	18	0	3	0	0								17,584	*
103		31	16		-	5	100.0		0.5		12	15	40	5	23	0	5	0	0								21,500	*
102		30	16		-	6	100.0		0.1		6	12	35	7	30	0	9	1	0								26,263	*
101		30	17		-	5	99.9		0.0		3	9	28	9	34	1	14	2	0	0							30,686	*
100		29	17		-	6	99.6		0.0		1	6	19	11	36	2	20	4	0	0							35,071	*
99		29	18		-	5	99.0		No		0	4	11	10	34	4	27	8	1	0	0						39,777	*
98		28	18		-	6	97.6		No		0	2	6	9	28	7	33	14	2	0	0	0					43,689	*
97		28	19		-	5	94.3		No		0	1	2	7	20	9	35	21	5	0	0	0					46,946	*
96		27	19		-	6	87.9		No			0	1	4	12	10	33	28	10	2	0	0					49,633	*
95		27	20		-	5	77.7		No			0	0	2	6	9	27	33	18	4	1	0					50,986	*
94		26	20		-	6	62.5		No		0	0	0	1	2	7	19	34	26	9	2	0	0				51,799	*
93		26	21		-	5	45.1		No			0	0	0	1	4	11	29	32	17	5	1	0	0			51,227	*
92		25	21		-	6	28.3		No			0		0	0	2	5	20	32	25	11	3	0	0			49,381	*
91		25	22		-	5	15.0		No					0	0	1	2	12	27	30	19	8	2	0	0		46,261	*
90		24	22		-	6	6.7		No					0		0	1	6	18	29	27	14	4	1	0		42,808	*
89		24	23		-	5	2.6		No					0		0	0	2	10	24	30	23	9	2	0		38,961	*
88		23	23		-	6	0.8		No							0	0	1	5	16	28	29	16	4	0		34,513	*
87		23	24		-	5	0.2		No							0	0	0	2	9	22	32	25	9	1	0	29,710	*
86		22	24		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	1	4	14	30	32	16	3	0	25,431	*
85		22	25		-	5	0.0		No							0		0	0	2	8	24	36	24	6	0	20,943	*
84		21	25		-	6	Out		No										0	1	4	17	35	33	11	0	17,046	*
83		21	26		-	5	Out		No										0	0	2	11	31	38	18	1	13,660	*
82		20	26		-	6	Out		No										0	0	1	5	23	42	27	2	10,727	*
81		20	27		-	5	Out		No												0	3	16	42	36	3	8,153	*
80		19	27		-	6	Out		No												0	1	10	38	45	6	5,925	*
79		19	28		-	5	Out		No												0	0	7	31	52	9	4,450	*
78		18	28		-	6	Out		No													0	3	25	59	13	3,122	*
77		18	29		-	5	Out		No													0	2	19	60	19	2,140	*
76		17	29		-	6	Out		No														1	15	60	25	1,473	*
75		17	30		-	5	Out		No													0	0	9	58	32	1,047	*
74		16	30		-	6	Out		No															7	55	39	627	*
73		16	31		-	5	Out		No															3	48	49	409	*
72		15	31		-	6	Out		No														0	1	41	58	244	*
71		15	32		-	5	Out		No															3	41	56	164	*
70		15	33		-	4	Out		No															1	33	66	108	*
69		13	32		-	7	Out		No																31	69	48	*
68		13	33		-	6	Out		No																26	74	34	*
67		14	35		-	3	Out		No																26	74	19	*
36	-66						Out		No																	100	87	*

Total:							54.1	%	1.3	%	4	3	7	3	10	3	12	12	10	8	7	7	6	4	3	0	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Capitals vs Bruins	+1.0+0.1+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.8
Senators vs Canadiens	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Sabres vs Stars	+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1*-0.0
Avalanche vs Canucks	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-140						100
119		39	8		-	5	89	11
118		39	9		-	4	97	3
117		38	9		-	5	96	3	1
116		38	10		-	4	91	7	1		1
115		37	10		-	5	84	13	1		1
114		37	11		-	4	82	14	2		3				0
113		36	11		-	5	72	21	2		4				0
112		35	11		-	6	64	25	3		8				0
111		35	12		-	5	54	30	6	0	10	0			0
110		34	12		-	6	45	34	8	0	12	0	0		1
109		34	13		-	5	34	36	9	1	19	1	0		2				0
108		33	13		-	6	23	39	11	1	23	1	0		2				0
107		33	14		-	5	15	36	13	2	27	2	0		4				0
106		32	14		-	6	8	31	14	3	30	4	1		8	0			0
105		32	15		-	5	4	25	13	5	32	8	1		11	0	0		1		0
104		31	15		-	6	2	18	11	6	29	12	3	0	17	0	0		3		0		0
103		31	16		-	5	1	11	8	7	24	16	5	0	22	1	0		5	0	0		0
102		30	16		-	6	0	6	5	7	16	19	7	0	27	3	0		9	0	1		0
101		30	17		-	5	0	3	3	6	9	18	8	1	29	5	1		13	0	2		0	0
100		29	17		-	6	0	1	1	5	4	15	10	1	28	8	2		19	0	4		0	0
99		29	18		-	5		0	0	3	1	10	8	2	22	12	4	0	26	1	8	0	1	0	0
98		28	18		-	6		0	0	2	0	5	6	3	14	13	7	0	30	3	14	0	2	0	0	0
97		28	19		-	5		0	0	1	0	2	4	3	7	12	9	0	29	5	21	0	5	0	0	0
96		27	19		-	6			0	0	0	1	2	2	3	9	9	1	25	8	28	1	10	2	0	0
95		27	20		-	5				0		0	1	2	1	5	7	1	17	10	32	2	17	4	1	0
94		26	20		-	6		0		0		0	0	1	0	2	5	2	9	10	30	4	26	9	2	0	0
93		26	21		-	5				0		0	0	0	0	1	2	2	4	8	23	6	31	17	5	1	0	0
92		25	21		-	6				0			0	0		0	1	1	1	5	13	7	30	26	12	3	1	0
91		25	22		-	5								0		0	0	1	0	2	5	7	23	30	21	9	2	0	0
90		24	22		-	6								0			0	0	0	1	1	4	13	26	28	18	6	1	0	0
89		24	23		-	5								0			0	0	0	0	0	2	5	17	28	26	15	5	1	0	0
88		23	23		-	6											0	0		0	0	1	1	7	19	28	24	14	5	1	0	0
87		23	24		-	5												0		0		0	0	2	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	0
86		22	24		-	6												0				0	0	0	3	10	21	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
85		22	25		-	5												0				0	0	0	1	4	11	22	26	21	11	4	1	0
84		21	25		-	6																		0	0	1	5	14	23	27	19	9	2	0	0
83		21	26		-	5																			0	0	1	6	15	25	26	17	7	1	0	0
82		20	26		-	6																				0	0	2	8	17	27	26	15	5	1	0
81		20	27		-	5																					0	0	3	10	21	31	23	10	2	0
80		19	27		-	6																						0	1	4	14	27	30	18	5	0
79		19	28		-	5																						0	0	2	8	19	31	27	10	1
78		18	28		-	6																								0	3	13	29	34	19	2
77		18	29		-	5																								0	1	7	23	38	26	5
76		17	29		-	6																									0	3	15	36	36	9
75		17	30		-	5																										1	9	33	41	16
74		16	30		-	6																										0	5	27	44	24
73		16	31		-	5																										0	2	19	44	34
72		15	31		-	6																											1	11	47	41
71		15	32		-	5																											1	6	47	46
70		15	33		-	4																												7	36	56
69		13	32		-	7																												4	31	65
68		13	33		-	6																													29	71
67		14	35		-	3																													26	74
36	-66																																			100

Total:							1	3	1	1	4	4	2	1	6	3	3	0	9	3	10	2	9	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	0	0