Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Panthers 2-1 (ot), playoff odds up 1.7 to 9.1%

30 points 14 18-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	+1.4		+0.3
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.2
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Flyers vs Hurricanes	-2.7-0.6-0.8+1.8+2.4+2.3		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Capitals vs Bruins	-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.2+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.0-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Hurricanes finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

111	-126						In		96.2	%	100																79	*
110		37	5		-	6	In		66.7		67	33															3	*
109		37	6		-	5	In		33.3		61	28	11														18	*
108		37	7		-	4	In		33.3		72	11	11	6													18	*
107		36	7		-	5	In		23.4		55	30	15														47	*
106		36	8		-	4	In		12.1		38	42	15	1	3												99	*
105		35	8		-	5	In		5.5		37	34	25	3	2												181	*
104		35	9		-	4	In		1.1		22	39	28	6	4												285	*
103		34	9		-	5	In		0.8		14	39	29	10	7	0	1										497	*
102		34	10		-	4	In		0.7		9	37	26	17	9	1	1										845	*
101		33	10		-	5	In		0.1		4	36	22	25	12	1	1										1,346	*
100		33	11		-	4	99.9	%	No		2	27	14	32	16	5	4	0	0								1,952	*
99		32	11		-	5	In		No		1	20	12	35	17	9	5	1									2,984	*
98		32	12		-	4	99.4		No		0	14	6	36	17	15	8	2	1	0							4,297	*
97		31	12		-	5	98.3		No		0	9	2	32	13	24	12	5	2	0	0						6,042	*
96		31	13		-	4	95.0		No		0	5	1	26	9	30	15	10	4	1	0	0	0				8,505	*
95		30	13		-	5	87.6		No			3	0	18	5	33	13	16	9	3	1	0	0				11,211	*
94		30	14		-	4	73.6		No			1	0	12	2	30	11	18	16	8	2	0	0	0			14,761	*
93		29	14		-	5	56.0		No			1	0	7	1	24	7	17	22	15	6	1	0	0			18,841	*
92		28	14		-	6	37.8		No			0		3	0	17	4	13	23	22	12	4	1	0			23,530	*
91		28	15		-	5	22.3		No			0		2	0	11	1	8	20	26	20	9	2	0	0		28,425	*
90		27	15		-	6	11.0		No			0		1	0	6	0	4	13	25	27	17	6	1	0		33,250	*
89		27	16		-	5	4.9		No			0		0		3	0	1	7	19	29	25	12	3	0		38,340	*
88		26	16		-	6	1.9		No					0		1	0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	1		42,945	*
87		26	17		-	5	0.6		No					0		1	0	0	1	6	19	31	28	12	2		47,545	*
86		25	17		-	6	0.2		No					0		0		0	0	3	11	26	34	20	5	0	50,052	*
85		25	18		-	5	0.1		No					0		0			0	1	6	19	34	30	9	0	52,505	*
84		24	18		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	3	12	31	37	16	0	53,637	*
83		24	19		-	5	0.0		No							0				0	1	7	25	41	24	1	53,623	*
82		23	19		-	6	0.0		No							0				0	0	3	18	42	34	2	51,767	*
81		23	20		-	5	Out		No											0	0	2	12	39	44	3	49,389	*
80		22	20		-	6	Out		No											0	0	1	7	34	53	5	46,146	*
79		22	21		-	5	Out		No											0	0	0	4	27	60	9	41,771	*
78		21	21		-	6	Out		No													0	2	21	64	13	37,025	*
77		21	22		-	5	Out		No													0	1	15	66	18	31,654	*
76		20	22		-	6	Out		No													0	0	10	66	24	27,315	*
75		20	23		-	5	Out		No														0	7	63	31	22,416	*
74		19	23		-	6	Out		No														0	4	58	37	17,891	*
73		19	24		-	5	Out		No														0	2	54	43	14,279	*
72		18	24		-	6	Out		No															2	47	51	10,944	*
71		18	25		-	5	Out		No															1	40	59	8,200	*
70		17	25		-	6	Out		No															1	35	64	6,067	*
69		17	26		-	5	Out		No															0	28	71	4,548	*
68		16	26		-	6	Out		No															0	25	75	3,045	*
67		16	27		-	5	Out		No															0	20	80	2,143	*
66		16	28		-	4	Out		No																16	84	1,365	*
65		15	28		-	5	Out		No																11	89	940	*
64		14	28		-	6	Out		No																7	93	594	*
63		14	29		-	5	Out		No																9	91	384	*
62		13	29		-	6	Out		No																5	95	217	*
61		13	30		-	5	Out		No																3	97	119	*
60		13	31		-	4	Out		No																6	94	83	*
30	-59						Out		No																	100	155	*

Total:							9.1	%	0.0	%	0	1	0	2	1	3	1	2	3	5	7	10	13	19	26	8	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	-0.6
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	-0.0
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Flyers vs Hurricanes	+0.8*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

126		48	0		-	0	100
113		40	5		-	3	50	50
112		37	3		-	8		100
111		38	5		-	5	75	25
110		37	5		-	6	67		33
109		37	6		-	5	33	28	28		11
108		37	7		-	4	33	39	11		11		6
107		36	7		-	5	23	32	21	9	15
106		36	8		-	4	12	26	35	7	14	1	1		3
105		35	8		-	5	6	31	28	6	21	4	3		2
104		35	9		-	4	1	21	25	14	24	5	6		4	0
103		34	9		-	5	1	14	22	18	21	8	10		6	0	0		1
102		34	10		-	4	1	8	18	20	13	14	17	0	8	1	1		1
101		33	10		-	5	0	3	14	21	10	12	23	2	10	2	1		1
100		33	11		-	4		2	7	20	4	10	30	2	13	3	5		3	0	0		0
99		32	11		-	5		1	4	16	2	10	30	5	13	4	9	0	5	0	1
98		32	12		-	4		0	2	12	1	5	28	8	10	7	15		8	0	2		1	0
97		31	12		-	5		0	1	8	0	2	21	11	6	7	24	0	11	1	5	0	2	0	0
96		31	13		-	4		0	0	5		1	14	12	3	6	29	1	12	3	10	0	4	1	0	0	0
95		30	13		-	5			0	3		0	7	10	1	4	30	3	10	4	15	1	9	3	1	0	0
94		30	14		-	4			0	1		0	3	8	0	2	25	5	6	5	17	1	16	8	2	0	0	0
93		29	14		-	5			0	1		0	1	6	0	1	17	7	3	4	14	3	22	15	6	1	0	0
92		28	14		-	6				0			0	3		0	10	7	1	3	9	4	22	23	13	4	1	0
91		28	15		-	5				0			0	2		0	5	7	0	1	4	4	18	26	21	10	3	0	0
90		27	15		-	6				0			0	1		0	2	4	0	0	1	3	10	23	28	19	7	2	0	0
89		27	16		-	5				0			0	0			1	3	0	0	0	1	4	15	26	27	16	6	1	0	0	0
88		26	16		-	6								0			0	1		0	0	0	1	7	18	28	25	13	4	1	0	0
87		26	17		-	5								0			0	0		0	0	0	0	2	9	20	28	23	12	4	1	0	0
86		25	17		-	6								0			0	0				0	0	0	3	10	22	27	21	11	4	1	0	0
85		25	18		-	5								0				0					0	0	1	4	12	23	27	20	10	3	1	0	0
84		24	18		-	6												0				0		0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	9	2	0	0	0
83		24	19		-	5												0						0	0	0	1	6	16	25	27	17	6	1	0
82		23	19		-	6												0							0	0	0	2	8	18	28	25	14	4	1	0
81		23	20		-	5																			0	0	0	0	3	10	23	29	23	9	2	0
80		22	20		-	6																				0	0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4	0
79		22	21		-	5																				0		0	0	2	8	22	32	26	9	1
78		21	21		-	6																						0	0	1	4	14	30	33	16	2
77		21	22		-	5																							0	0	1	8	24	37	25	4
76		20	22		-	6																								0	0	4	17	36	34	8
75		20	23		-	5																									0	2	11	32	41	14
74		19	23		-	6																									0	1	6	26	47	20
73		19	24		-	5																									0	0	3	20	49	27
72		18	24		-	6																										0	2	13	48	37
71		18	25		-	5																										0	1	9	44	46
70		17	25		-	6																											0	6	39	55
69		17	26		-	5																											0	3	33	64
68		16	26		-	6																											0	2	28	70
67		16	27		-	5																												1	24	76
66		16	28		-	4																												0	18	81
65		15	28		-	5																												0	13	87
64		14	28		-	6																												1	8	92
63		14	29		-	5																													10	90
62		13	29		-	6																													5	95
61		13	30		-	5																													3	97
60		13	31		-	4																													7	93
30	-59																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	3	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	9	9	9	8	4