Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Ducks 2-1, playoff odds up 3.4 to 80.9%

44 points 21 10-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+3.8		+1.2		+0.4
Devils 2 Senators 3	-0.4		+0.1
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.3				*+0.0
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.3		-0.1
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)			*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-4.5*-0.5-0.4+3.2+3.3+3.7		-1.6-0.5-0.3+1.2+1.2+1.3		-0.5*-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.6
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	+0.2-0.7-0.3-0.5-0.3+0.1
Capitals vs Bruins					+0.0*-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Sabres vs Stars			-0.1+0.2-0.1+0.1-0.2+0.1		-0.1-0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.0+0.1
Blues vs Sharks			+0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Wings finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-142						In		Yes		100																198	*
121		36	8		-	5	In		97.2	%	99		1														141	*
120		36	9		-	4	In		97.1		100																207	*
119		35	9		-	5	In		97.9		100		0														331	*
118		35	10		-	4	In		95.3		99	0	0														578	*
117		34	10		-	5	In		93.9		99	0	1														882	*
116		34	11		-	4	In		90.6		98	0	1														1,490	*
115		33	11		-	5	In		86.4		97	1	2														2,199	*
114		33	12		-	4	In		81.1		96	1	3														3,294	*
113		32	12		-	5	In		75.3		94	2	4		0												4,742	*
112		32	13		-	4	In		67.6		91	3	6		0												6,612	*
111		31	13		-	5	In		58.7		87	4	9		0		0										9,054	*
110		30	13		-	6	In		47.4		81	6	12		0												12,038	*
109		30	14		-	5	In		36.6		74	8	17	0	1		0										15,605	*
108		29	14		-	6	In		26.8		66	11	22	0	2		0										19,614	*
107		29	15		-	5	In		17.9		56	13	27	0	3	0	0	0									23,937	*
106		28	15		-	6	In		10.4		46	15	33	0	5		0										28,975	*
105		28	16		-	5	In		5.3		35	17	39	1	8	0	0	0									33,642	*
104		27	16		-	6	In		2.5		25	18	41	2	13	0	1	0									38,728	*
103		27	17		-	5	100.0	%	0.9		16	17	42	4	18	0	2	0	0								43,041	*
102		26	17		-	6	100.0		0.2		9	15	39	6	25	0	5	0	0								47,022	*
101		26	18		-	5	100.0		0.0		5	12	33	9	31	1	8	1	0								50,017	*
100		25	18		-	6	99.8		0.0		2	9	25	12	35	2	14	2	0	0							52,366	*
99		25	19		-	5	99.6		No		1	6	16	13	36	4	20	5	0	0							53,291	*
98		24	19		-	6	98.9		No		0	3	9	12	33	6	27	8	1	0							52,674	*
97		24	20		-	5	97.2		No		0	2	4	10	26	9	32	14	3	0	0	0					51,359	*
96		23	20		-	6	93.3		No		0	1	2	7	18	12	33	21	6	1	0						48,884	*
95		23	21		-	5	85.9		No		0	0	1	4	10	12	31	28	12	2	0	0					44,982	*
94		22	21		-	6	73.6		No			0	0	2	5	10	24	32	19	6	1	0	0				40,721	*
93		22	22		-	5	57.5		No			0	0	1	2	8	16	31	27	12	3	0	0				36,407	*
92		21	22		-	6	39.4		No			0	0	0	0	5	9	25	31	20	8	2	0				31,669	*
91		21	23		-	5	23.1		No			0		0	0	2	4	16	29	27	15	5	1	0			26,715	*
90		20	23		-	6	11.3		No					0	0	1	2	9	22	30	23	11	3	0	0		21,781	*
89		20	24		-	5	4.7		No					0	0	1	0	4	14	26	29	19	6	1	0		18,003	*
88		19	24		-	6	1.8		No					0		0	0	1	7	19	30	27	13	3	0		14,118	*
87		19	25		-	5	0.5		No							0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1		10,960	*
86		18	25		-	6	0.2		No							0	0	0	1	6	18	31	28	13	2	0	8,272	*
85		18	26		-	5	0.0		No								0	0	0	3	11	26	34	21	5	0	6,067	*
84		17	26		-	6	Out		No										0	1	6	21	36	29	9	0	4,451	*
83		17	27		-	5	Out		No											0	2	13	32	37	15	1	3,065	*
82		16	27		-	6	Out		No											0	1	7	26	41	23	1	2,209	*
81		16	28		-	5	Out		No												0	3	19	42	33	2	1,525	*
80		15	28		-	6	Out		No												0	2	13	38	43	4	912	*
79		15	29		-	5	Out		No													1	7	32	52	8	556	*
78		14	29		-	6	Out		No													0	4	28	56	12	362	*
77		14	30		-	5	Out		No														3	22	57	18	251	*
76		14	31		-	4	Out		No															15	66	19	154	*
75		13	31		-	5	Out		No															6	71	23	90	*
74		12	31		-	6	Out		No																69	31	29	*
73		11	31		-	7	Out		No																54	46	13	*
72		10	31		-	8	Out		No																25	75	8	*
70	-71						Out		No																	100	3	*
69		10	34		-	5	Out		No																33	67	3
44	-65						Out		No																	100	73	*

Total:							80.9	%	5.6	%	14	6	16	5	15	4	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	0	0	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.8
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*-0.1
Devils 2 Senators 3	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Sabres vs Stars	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Capitals vs Bruins	-0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Senators vs Canadiens	+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Blues vs Sharks	-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0
Flyers vs Hurricanes	-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-142						100
121		36	8		-	5	97	2			1
120		36	9		-	4	97	3
119		35	9		-	5	98	2			0
118		35	10		-	4	95	4	0		0
117		34	10		-	5	94	5	0		1
116		34	11		-	4	91	8	0		1
115		33	11		-	5	86	11	1		2
114		33	12		-	4	81	15	1		3
113		32	12		-	5	75	18	2		4				0
112		32	13		-	4	68	24	3		6				0
111		31	13		-	5	59	28	4	0	9	0			0				0
110		30	13		-	6	47	34	6	0	12	0			0
109		30	14		-	5	37	37	8	0	17	0	0		1				0
108		29	14		-	6	27	39	10	1	21	1	0		2				0
107		29	15		-	5	18	39	11	2	26	2	0		3	0	0		0		0
106		28	15		-	6	10	35	13	3	29	4	0		5	0			0
105		28	16		-	5	5	29	13	4	32	7	1		8	0	0		0		0
104		27	16		-	6	2	22	11	6	31	11	2	0	13	0	0		1		0
103		27	17		-	5	1	15	9	8	27	15	4	0	18	1	0		2	0	0		0
102		26	17		-	6	0	9	7	8	20	19	6	0	23	2	0		5	0	0		0
101		26	18		-	5	0	5	4	8	13	21	8	0	27	4	1		8	0	1		0
100		25	18		-	6	0	2	2	7	6	19	11	1	28	7	2	0	13	0	2		0	0
99		25	19		-	5		1	1	5	2	14	11	2	25	11	4	0	19	1	5		0	0
98		24	19		-	6		0	0	3	1	8	9	3	18	15	6	0	25	2	8	0	1	0
97		24	20		-	5		0	0	2	0	4	6	4	11	15	9	0	28	4	14	0	3	0	0	0
96		23	20		-	6		0	0	1	0	2	3	4	5	13	11	1	26	7	21	0	6	1	0
95		23	21		-	5		0	0	0		1	1	3	1	8	10	1	21	10	27	1	12	2	0	0
94		22	21		-	6			0	0		0	1	2	0	4	8	2	13	11	29	3	19	6	1	0	0
93		22	22		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	2	5	3	6	10	26	5	27	12	3	1	0
92		21	22		-	6				0		0	0	0		0	2	2	2	7	17	8	29	21	8	2	0
91		21	23		-	5				0			0	0		0	1	2	0	4	8	8	25	28	17	6	1	0	0
90		20	23		-	6								0		0	0	1	0	1	3	6	17	28	25	14	4	1	0	0
89		20	24		-	5								0		0	0	1	0	0	1	3	8	20	29	23	11	3	1	0
88		19	24		-	6								0			0	0		0	0	1	3	11	23	28	21	10	3	0	0
87		19	25		-	5												0		0	0	0	1	4	12	24	27	20	9	3	1	0
86		18	25		-	6												0		0	0	0	0	1	5	14	24	26	18	9	3	0	0
85		18	26		-	5														0		0	0	0	1	6	15	24	24	18	8	2	0	0	0
84		17	26		-	6																		0	0	1	7	16	26	26	16	7	2	0	0
83		17	27		-	5																				0	2	7	17	27	25	15	5	1	0
82		16	27		-	6																				0	1	3	9	20	26	24	12	4	0
81		16	28		-	5																					0	1	3	12	22	29	21	9	2
80		15	28		-	6																						0	1	6	16	28	33	12	3	0
79		15	29		-	5																							0	2	9	21	35	24	8	1
78		14	29		-	6																								2	5	17	29	32	15	1
77		14	30		-	5																								1	2	6	23	42	20	6
76		14	31		-	4																										4	18	36	36	6
75		13	31		-	5																										1	8	36	47	9
74		12	31		-	6																											3	34	48	14
73		11	31		-	7																												15	62	23
72		10	31		-	8																												13	38	50
70	-71																																			100
69		10	34		-	5																													67	33
44	-65																																			100

Total:							6	9	4	3	9	7	4	1	10	5	3	1	10	3	8	1	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0