New York Islanders Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Lost to Capitals 3-4 (so), playoff odds down 1 to 62%

41 points 19 12-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Islanders 3 Capitals 4 (so)	-1.3		*-0.1		-0.1
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.8				+0.1
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	*-0.2
Rangers 1 Penguins 0	*-0.1
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.1
Devils 2 Senators 3			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.6				-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Flyers vs Hurricanes	-0.3-0.4-0.2-0.0-0.2+0.4
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.3+0.0-0.4+0.1-0.2+0.3
Capitals vs Bruins					-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Sabres vs Stars			-0.1-0.0+0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Islanders finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-137						In		98.3	%	100																121	*
118		36	7		-	5	In		92.2		98	2															51	*
117		36	8		-	4	In		92.9		100																84	*
116		36	9		-	3	In		89.0		99	1															172	*
115		35	9		-	4	In		87.1		97	2	1														279	*
114		35	10		-	3	In		77.7		93	5	2														529	*
113		34	10		-	4	In		70.2		91	7	2														823	*
112		33	10		-	5	In		64.0		86	10	4														1,276	*
111		33	11		-	4	In		52.5		81	14	5		0												2,027	*
110		32	11		-	5	In		40.9		75	18	7		0												3,022	*
109		32	12		-	4	In		32.0		68	22	9	0	0												4,457	*
108		31	12		-	5	In		22.1		59	28	12	0	0												6,049	*
107		31	13		-	4	In		12.6		47	35	17	1	1												8,482	*
106		30	13		-	5	In		7.5		37	39	21	2	1	0	0										11,387	*
105		30	14		-	4	In		3.6		27	43	24	4	2	0	0										14,772	*
104		29	14		-	5	In		1.3		17	44	26	9	4	0	0										18,599	*
103		28	14		-	6	In		0.4		11	43	26	14	6	0	0	0									23,563	*
102		28	15		-	5	In		0.1		6	38	24	21	9	1	1	0									28,204	*
101		27	15		-	6	100.0	%	0.0		3	33	20	29	12	3	1	0	0								33,278	*
100		27	16		-	5	100.0		No		1	26	14	36	15	6	2	0	0	0							38,335	*
99		26	16		-	6	99.9		No		0	20	9	39	15	12	4	1	0	0							42,794	*
98		26	17		-	5	99.5		No		0	14	4	39	14	20	7	2	0	0	0						47,163	*
97		25	17		-	6	98.0		No		0	9	2	35	10	28	9	5	2	0	0	0					50,304	*
96		25	18		-	5	94.7		No		0	5	1	29	7	34	11	9	4	1	0	0	0				52,594	*
95		24	18		-	6	87.2		No		0	3	0	21	3	37	10	13	9	3	1	0	0				53,599	*
94		24	19		-	5	74.7		No			1	0	14	1	35	8	15	15	8	2	0	0				53,505	*
93		23	19		-	6	57.9		No			1	0	9	0	29	5	14	20	15	6	1	0	0			52,332	*
92		23	20		-	5	40.7		No			0		5	0	22	3	11	21	22	12	3	0	0			48,992	*
91		22	20		-	6	25.3		No			0		2	0	15	1	6	18	26	20	8	2	0	0		46,090	*
90		22	21		-	5	13.7		No			0		1		9	0	3	13	26	27	16	5	1	0		41,489	*
89		21	21		-	6	6.6		No			0		0		5	0	1	7	20	30	24	10	2	0		37,013	*
88		21	22		-	5	3.1		No					0	0	3	0	0	3	14	27	30	18	5	0		31,802	*
87		20	22		-	6	1.3		No					0		1	0	0	1	7	21	32	26	10	1	0	27,282	*
86		20	23		-	5	0.4		No					0		0		0	0	3	14	29	33	18	3	0	22,483	*
85		19	23		-	6	0.1		No					0		0			0	1	7	23	36	26	7	0	18,278	*
84		19	24		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	16	33	34	13	0	14,223	*
83		18	24		-	6	Out		No										0	0	1	10	28	39	21	1	10,996	*
82		18	25		-	5	Out		No											0	0	5	21	42	29	2	8,413	*
81		17	25		-	6	Out		No												0	3	14	41	39	3	6,091	*
80		17	26		-	5	Out		No												0	1	9	35	48	6	4,374	*
79		16	26		-	6	Out		No													0	5	30	55	9	3,066	*
78		16	27		-	5	Out		No													0	3	24	59	14	2,127	*
77		16	28		-	4	Out		No														1	17	61	20	1,350	*
76		15	28		-	5	Out		No														1	12	64	24	967	*
75		15	29		-	4	Out		No														0	7	61	31	574	*
74		14	29		-	5	Out		No															4	58	38	356	*
73		14	30		-	4	Out		No															4	45	50	231	*
72		12	29		-	7	Out		No															4	56	40	112	*
71		13	31		-	4	Out		No																60	40	57	*
70		13	32		-	3	Out		No																29	71	31	*
69		11	31		-	6	Out		No																43	57	21	*
68		11	32		-	5	Out		No																38	62	13	*
67		10	32		-	6	Out		No																	100	8	*
66		10	33		-	5	Out		No																33	67	3	*
41	-65						Out		No																	100	77	*

Total:							62.0	%	1.2	%	4	11	5	15	4	15	4	5	6	7	7	6	5	4	2	0	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Islanders 3 Capitals 4 (so)	+0.2
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	-0.1
Devils 2 Senators 3	-0.1
Rangers 1 Penguins 0	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Capitals vs Bruins	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Flyers vs Hurricanes	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Sabres vs Stars	+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.0
Blues vs Sharks	+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-137						100
120		38	7		-	3	83	17
119		37	7		-	4	100
118		36	7		-	5	92	6	2
117		36	8		-	4	93	7
116		36	9		-	3	89	10	1
115		35	9		-	4	87	10	2		1
114		35	10		-	3	78	15	5		2
113		34	10		-	4	70	21	7	0	2
112		33	10		-	5	64	21	10	0	4
111		33	11		-	4	53	29	13	0	5				0
110		32	11		-	5	41	34	17	1	7	0			0
109		32	12		-	4	32	36	21	2	9	0	0		0
108		31	12		-	5	22	37	26	3	12	1	0		0
107		31	13		-	4	13	34	29	5	15	1	1		1
106		30	13		-	5	8	29	31	8	18	3	2		1		0		0
105		30	14		-	4	4	24	30	13	19	5	4		2	0	0		0
104		29	14		-	5	1	16	27	17	19	7	9	0	4	0	0		0
103		28	14		-	6	0	11	22	21	15	11	14	0	5	0	0		0		0
102		28	15		-	5	0	6	16	22	11	13	21	1	8	1	1		1		0
101		27	15		-	6	0	3	10	23	7	13	27	2	10	2	3		1	0	0		0
100		27	16		-	5		1	6	20	3	11	32	4	11	3	6	0	2	0	0		0	0
99		26	16		-	6		0	3	17	1	8	32	8	10	5	12	0	4	0	1		0	0
98		26	17		-	5		0	1	12	0	4	27	12	7	6	20	0	6	0	2	0	0	0	0
97		25	17		-	6		0	1	8	0	2	20	15	4	7	27	1	8	1	5	0	2	0	0	0
96		25	18		-	5		0	0	5	0	1	13	16	2	5	32	2	8	2	8	0	4	1	0	0	0
95		24	18		-	6		0	0	3		0	7	14	0	3	32	5	6	4	12	1	9	3	1	0	0
94		24	19		-	5			0	1		0	3	11	0	1	27	8	4	4	13	2	15	8	2	0	0
93		23	19		-	6			0	1		0	1	8	0	0	18	10	2	3	11	3	20	15	6	1	0	0
92		23	20		-	5				0			0	4		0	11	11	0	2	7	4	20	22	13	4	1	0
91		22	20		-	6				0			0	2		0	5	10	0	1	3	4	15	26	22	9	2	0	0
90		22	21		-	5				0			0	1			2	7	0	0	1	2	9	22	28	19	7	1	0	0
89		21	21		-	6				0			0	0			1	4		0	0	1	3	14	26	27	16	6	1	0	0
88		21	22		-	5								0		0	0	2		0	0	0	1	6	17	27	26	14	5	1	0	0
87		20	22		-	6								0			0	1		0		0	0	2	8	19	27	24	13	5	1	0	0
86		20	23		-	5								0			0	0				0	0	0	2	9	20	26	23	13	5	1	0	0
85		19	23		-	6								0				0						0	1	3	10	22	27	22	11	4	1	0
84		19	24		-	5												0						0	0	1	4	12	22	27	21	10	3	0	0
83		18	24		-	6																			0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	8	2	0
82		18	25		-	5																				0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	5	1	0
81		17	25		-	6																					0	0	3	9	21	30	24	10	2	0
80		17	26		-	5																						0	1	4	14	26	30	20	5	0
79		16	26		-	6																							0	1	7	19	31	29	11	1
78		16	27		-	5																							0	1	3	12	29	35	19	3
77		16	28		-	4																								0	1	6	21	39	28	5
76		15	28		-	5																									0	4	17	36	34	9
75		15	29		-	4																										2	10	30	42	17
74		14	29		-	5																										1	5	22	51	21
73		13	29		-	6																											1	22	50	26
72		12	29		-	7																											4	14	48	34
71		13	31		-	4																												16	47	37
70		13	32		-	3																												3	39	58
69		11	31		-	6																												10	38	52
68		11	32		-	5																													38	62
67		10	32		-	6																													13	88
66		10	33		-	5																													33	67
41	-65																																			100

Total:							1	3	4	6	2	3	9	5	3	2	11	3	2	1	4	1	6	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0