Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 20.2%

27 points 12 17-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.4
Predators 1 Wild 2	-0.2		+0.0
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	*-0.1
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Wild vs Jets	-4.8-1.6-1.2+3.2+3.5+4.2		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Blues vs Sharks	-0.4-0.1-0.6-0.1*-0.1+0.5
Sabres vs Stars	+0.5-0.1+0.1*-0.2-0.7-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jets finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

127		50	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																72
111		40	6		-	4	In		75.0	%	75	25															4	*
110		39	6		-	5	In		58.3		67	33															12	*
109		39	7		-	4	In		58.3		75	25															12	*
108		38	7		-	5	In		20.0		35	45	20														20	*
107		38	8		-	4	In		17.9		38	38	23														39	*
106		38	9		-	3	In		9.9		28	48	24														71	*
105		37	9		-	4	In		3.6		24	45	28	3													138	*
104		36	9		-	5	In		2.5		15	44	31	8	2												242	*
103		36	10		-	4	In		0.8		8	47	28	15	2	0											388	*
102		35	10		-	5	In		0.1		6	44	27	18	5		0										673	*
101		35	11		-	4	In		No		3	34	30	26	7	1	0										1,097	*
100		34	11		-	5	In		No		1	28	22	36	11	1	1										1,679	*
99		34	12		-	4	In		No		0	23	17	41	14	3	1	0									2,474	*
98		33	12		-	5	In		No		0	16	13	45	15	8	2	0									3,519	*
97		33	13		-	4	99.9	%	No		0	12	7	46	17	13	4	0	0								5,140	*
96		32	13		-	5	99.8		No			8	4	44	16	20	7	1	0								7,122	*
95		31	13		-	6	99.4		No			5	2	38	13	29	9	3	1	0							9,758	*
94		31	14		-	5	98.3		No			3	1	31	10	36	12	7	2	0							12,599	*
93		30	14		-	6	95.4		No			2	0	24	6	40	13	10	4	1	0						15,908	*
92		30	15		-	5	90.6		No			1	0	17	3	40	13	16	8	2	0	0					20,322	*
91		29	15		-	6	81.2		No			0	0	11	2	37	11	20	14	4	1	0					24,791	*
90		29	16		-	5	68.5		No			0		7	1	32	8	21	21	9	2	0	0				29,498	*
89		28	16		-	6	53.6		No			0		4	0	25	5	19	26	15	4	1	0				34,517	*
88		28	17		-	5	37.8		No			0		2	0	18	3	15	28	23	9	2	0	0			39,332	*
87		27	17		-	6	25.0		No			0		1	0	12	1	10	26	29	15	4	0	0			43,370	*
86		27	18		-	5	14.0		No			0		0	0	7	1	6	21	32	23	8	1	0			47,267	*
85		26	18		-	6	7.7		No					0	0	5	0	3	14	31	30	14	3	0			50,320	*
84		26	19		-	5	3.6		No					0		2	0	1	9	25	34	22	6	1			51,615	*
83		25	19		-	6	1.7		No					0		1	0	0	4	18	33	29	12	2			52,645	*
82		25	20		-	5	0.7		No					0		1	0	0	2	12	29	35	18	3			52,364	*
81		24	20		-	6	0.3		No							0	0	0	1	7	23	37	26	7			50,633	*
80		24	21		-	5	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	16	35	34	11			47,435	*
79		23	21		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	2	10	31	39	17			44,306	*
78		23	22		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	6	25	43	25			40,578	*
77		22	22		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	19	44	34			35,445	*
76		22	23		-	5	Out		No											0	2	13	42	43			31,142	*
75		21	23		-	6	Out		No											0	1	9	38	53			26,180	*
74		21	24		-	5	Out		No											0	0	5	33	62			21,498	*
73		20	24		-	6	Out		No												0	3	26	71			17,498	*
72		20	25		-	5	Out		No												0	2	20	78			13,776	*
71		19	25		-	6	Out		No												0	1	16	83			10,722	*
70		19	26		-	5	Out		No													0	11	89			8,173	*
69		18	26		-	6	Out		No												0	0	9	90			6,153	*
68		18	27		-	5	Out		No													0	6	94			4,401	*
67		17	27		-	6	Out		No													0	4	96			3,183	*
66		17	28		-	5	Out		No													0	2	98			2,152	*
65		16	28		-	6	Out		No														1	99			1,463	*
64		16	29		-	5	Out		No														1	99			951	*
63		15	29		-	6	Out		No														1	99			593	*
62		15	30		-	5	Out		No														0	100			380	*
61		15	31		-	4	Out		No														1	99			255	*
60		14	31		-	5	Out		No															100			150	*
59		14	32		-	4	Out		No														1	99			75	*
27	-58						Out		No															100			170	*

Total:							20.2	%	0.0	%	0	1	0	4	1	8	2	4	8	11	13	15	16	16			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.1
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	*+0.0
Rangers 1 Penguins 0	-0.0
Devils 2 Senators 3	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Wild vs Jets	+1.0+0.3+0.2-0.7-0.8-0.8
Sabres vs Stars	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Blues vs Sharks	+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Avalanche vs Canucks	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.0
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

127		50	0		-	0	100
111		40	6		-	4	75		25
110		39	6		-	5	58	8	33
109		39	7		-	4	58	17	25
108		38	7		-	5	20	15	40	5	20
107		38	8		-	4	18	21	33	5	23
106		38	9		-	3	10	18	41	7	20	4
105		37	9		-	4	4	20	39	6	25	3	3
104		36	9		-	5	2	12	35	9	22	9	8		2
103		36	10		-	4	1	7	30	17	19	9	15		2	0	0
102		35	10		-	5	0	6	25	19	15	11	17	1	5	1			0
101		35	11		-	4		3	13	21	10	20	24	2	6	1	1		0
100		34	11		-	5		1	7	21	4	18	31	5	9	2	1		1
99		34	12		-	4		0	4	19	2	15	31	10	8	6	3		1	0	0
98		33	12		-	5		0	2	15	0	12	26	19	6	9	7	0	2	0	0
97		33	13		-	4		0	1	11	0	7	20	25	4	13	12	1	3	1	0		0
96		32	13		-	5			0	8	0	4	13	31	2	14	16	5	4	3	1	0	0
95		31	13		-	6			0	5		2	7	31	1	13	18	11	3	6	3	1	1	0
94		31	14		-	5				3		1	3	28	0	10	16	20	2	9	4	2	2	0	0
93		30	14		-	6			0	2		0	1	23	0	6	12	29	1	12	5	6	3	1	0	0	0
92		30	15		-	5				1		0	0	17		3	7	34	0	13	4	12	5	3	1	0	0
91		29	15		-	6				0		0	0	11		2	3	34	0	11	2	18	5	6	5	2	1	0	0
90		29	16		-	5				0			0	7		1	1	31	0	8	1	20	4	8	9	6	3	1	0	0
89		28	16		-	6				0			0	4		0	0	25	0	5	0	19	2	6	11	13	9	4	1	0	0
88		28	17		-	5				0				2		0	0	18		3	0	15	1	3	9	15	16	11	5	1	0	0	0
87		27	17		-	6				0				1		0	0	12		1		10	0	1	5	12	19	19	12	5	1	0	0
86		27	18		-	5				0				0		0	0	7		1		6	0	0	2	6	15	23	21	13	5	1	0	0	0
85		26	18		-	6								0		0		5		0		3	0	0	0	2	8	18	25	22	12	4	1	0	0
84		26	19		-	5								0				2		0		1		0	0	1	3	10	21	26	21	10	3	0	0
83		25	19		-	6								0				1		0		0		0	0	0	1	4	13	24	28	19	8	2	0	0
82		25	20		-	5								0				1		0		0				0	0	1	6	16	27	27	16	5	1	0
81		24	20		-	6												0		0		0				0	0	0	2	9	21	30	25	11	2	0
80		24	21		-	5												0				0					0	0	1	4	13	27	31	19	5	0
79		23	21		-	6												0										0	0	1	7	20	33	28	10	1
78		23	22		-	5												0											0	0	3	13	29	35	18	2
77		22	22		-	6												0											0	0	1	7	23	38	27	5
76		22	23		-	5																								0	0	3	15	37	36	8
75		21	23		-	6																								0	0	1	10	32	43	14
74		21	24		-	5																									0	0	5	26	48	21
73		20	24		-	6																										0	3	19	49	29
72		20	25		-	5																										0	1	13	48	38
71		19	25		-	6																											0	9	45	46
70		19	26		-	5																											0	5	40	55
69		18	26		-	6																											0	3	34	63
68		18	27		-	5																											0	1	28	71
67		17	27		-	6																											0	1	22	77
66		17	28		-	5																												0	17	82
65		16	28		-	6																												0	12	88
64		16	29		-	5																													10	90
63		15	29		-	6																												0	7	93
62		15	30		-	5																													6	94
61		15	31		-	4																													4	96
60		14	31		-	5																													1	99
59		14	32		-	4																													1	99
27	-58																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	1	7	0	2	0	4	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	10	6