Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.8 to 43.3%
40 points   18 13-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2 -0.5
-0.0
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1 +0.5
Devils 2 Senators 3 -0.4
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Maple Leafs vs Panthers+5.8+5.2+4.7-1.7-1.8-6.8
+0.2+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.1-0.2
+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.6
Senators vs Canadiens-0.7*-0.5-0.7*+0.2*+0.1+0.8
-0.0*-0.0-0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings+0.2-0.8*-0.1*-0.4*-0.6*-0.0
+0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Capitals vs Bruins+0.5*+0.0*-0.4*-0.4*-0.4-0.3
Sabres vs Stars-0.4*-0.2*-0.3*+0.1*+0.4+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Maple Leafs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
117-134In96.3%100108*
116367-4In81.498243*
115368-3In80.299181*
114358-4In79.29622125*
113359-3In64.694140260*
112349-4In66.692350449*
111339-5In49.4836110686*
1103310-4In40.57681611,148*
1093210-5In30.8681020011,811*
1083211-4In19.75912260202,628*
1073111-5In13.449143105004,106*
1063112-4In7.23816371815,706*
1053012-5In2.9271840213107,991*
1043013-4100.0%1.3181642318030010,709*
1032913-5In0.411153952405114,111*
1022914-499.90.1612337310101018,210*
1012814-599.80.0392693511530022,605*
1002714-699.4No1517103632251027,498*
992715-598.4No03101033428920032,640*
982716-496.5No0258267331630037,756*
972616-592.4No01261893423710042,477*
962516-685.1No0013109313113200047,093*
952517-573.2No000257253420510050,640*
942417-657.5No001261633281120052,845*
932418-540.3No0001310263220710054,346*
922318-624.1No00002418312713410053,880*
912319-512.2No001210243122920052,088*
902219-65.2No000041628281651050,066*
892220-51.9No00028223025112046,763*
882120-60.5No00041427311951042,199*
872121-50.1No00017203326111037,745*
862021-60.0No0003132934183032,598*
852022-50.0No00172236267027,784*
841922-60.0No000315343413023,007*
831923-5OutNo0019284020118,214*
821823-6OutNo005224229214,517*
811824-5OutNo02154138311,053*
801724-6OutNo019374668,564*
791725-5OutNo006305496,253*
781625-6OutNo032459144,394*
771626-5OutNo021761203,229*
761526-6OutNo011361262,102*
751527-5OutNo0760331,383*
741528-4OutNo155539944*
731428-5OutNo44353554*
721429-4OutNo24058354*
711329-5OutNo04851209*
701330-4OutNo3169110*
691230-5OutNo287283*
681231-4OutNo237739*
671131-5OutNo326822*
661031-6OutNo425812*
651234-1OutNo40605*
40-64OutNo10077*
Total:43.3%0.5%22528311121110998641874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2 +0.1
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)*+0.0
Devils 2 Senators 3 +0.0
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Maple Leafs vs Panthers-0.9-0.8-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.0
Senators vs Canadiens+0.1*+0.0+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Capitals vs Bruins-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Sabres vs Stars+0.0*+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Blues vs Sharks-0.0*-0.1*+0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
119-134100
118387-2928
117377-38317
116367-481162
115368-380191
114358-4791722
113359-36530140
112349-46725350
111339-5493461100
1103310-44135801501
1093210-531379120101
1083211-42040111242020
1073111-513361222830500
1063112-47311343251801
1053012-5324125309212010
1043013-41161062913301700300
1032913-5011772217502310501
1022914-40647151960283010010
1012814-50336818813051150300
1002714-611431491279302115010
992715-5003198221124027190200
982716-40010463131370303160300
972616-50010233612802962307100
962516-600001122881238301132000
952517-500001104611510322206100
942417-600010242792942812300
932418-5000001213720631207100
922318-60000011141172928144100
912319-5000010246203024113000
902219-6000000131125302082000
892220-500000014152628176100
882120-60000016172826155100
872121-50000027192724145100
862021-60000292027231251000
852022-5001310212722124100
841922-6000141222272110300
831923-5001513242719820
821823-6002616272716510
811824-500292229241120
801724-600141326322050
791725-50027193228111
781625-6003132735193
771626-50172237276
761526-600315363610
751527-529304218
741528-4016254722
731428-503164338
721429-41114544
711329-5104743
701229-623860
691230-523365
681231-42674
671131-53664
661031-64258
651234-14060
40-64100
Total:02112321532083102109765443322110