San Jose Sharks Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Coyotes 4-3 (so), playoff odds up 2 to 93.1%

47 points 23 12-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	+1.8		+0.8		+0.3
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	-0.3
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.3				+0.1
Devils 2 Senators 3			+0.2
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Blues vs Sharks	-2.3-0.3-0.2+1.6+1.5+1.9		-1.4-0.4-0.3+0.9+1.2+1.2		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Stars	+0.2-0.1+0.0+0.1-0.4-0.1
Avalanche vs Canucks					+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sharks finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

121	-139						In		Yes		100																180	*
120		35	8		-	3	In		97.6	%	98		2														124	*
119		34	8		-	4	In		98.0		98	1	1														199	*
118		33	8		-	5	In		94.8		96	1	3														381	*
117		33	9		-	4	In		95.3		96	2	3														665	*
116		32	9		-	5	In		91.9		94	1	5														978	*
115		32	10		-	4	In		87.0		90	2	7														1,564	*
114		31	10		-	5	In		80.5		86	3	11														2,454	*
113		31	11		-	4	In		75.8		84	4	12		0												3,543	*
112		30	11		-	5	In		66.7		76	7	17		0												5,211	*
111		30	12		-	4	In		55.6		69	7	23		0												7,335	*
110		29	12		-	5	In		47.9		64	9	27	0	1		0										10,028	*
109		29	13		-	4	In		35.2		54	11	34	0	1												13,397	*
108		28	13		-	5	In		25.3		46	13	39	0	2		0										17,570	*
107		28	14		-	4	In		16.1		37	14	45	0	4		0										21,892	*
106		27	14		-	5	In		9.1		28	15	50	0	6		0										26,799	*
105		27	15		-	4	In		4.3		20	15	54	1	10	0	0										31,804	*
104		26	15		-	5	In		1.9		14	13	56	2	14	0	1										37,631	*
103		26	16		-	4	In		0.6		9	12	56	3	19	0	1	0									42,519	*
102		25	16		-	5	In		0.2		5	10	52	5	26	0	2	0									46,861	*
101		25	17		-	4	In		0.0		3	8	46	7	31	0	4	0									50,728	*
100		24	17		-	5	100.0	%	0.0		1	5	39	9	38	0	6	0	0								53,185	*
99		23	17		-	6	100.0		No		1	4	30	11	43	1	10	0	0								54,771	*
98		23	18		-	5	100.0		No		0	2	21	12	46	2	15	1	0								54,994	*
97		22	18		-	6	100.0		No		0	1	14	12	45	4	21	2	0								53,485	*
96		22	19		-	5	99.8		No		0	1	8	11	42	6	28	4	0	0							51,073	*
95		21	19		-	6	99.4		No		0	0	4	9	36	9	33	7	1	0							47,589	*
94		21	20		-	5	98.6		No			0	2	7	28	11	38	12	1	0	0						43,101	*
93		20	20		-	6	96.9		No			0	1	5	19	13	41	18	3	0	0						38,157	*
92		20	21		-	5	93.1		No			0	0	3	12	13	40	26	6	1	0						33,009	*
91		19	21		-	6	86.7		No			0	0	2	6	12	35	32	11	2	0	0					28,120	*
90		19	22		-	5	77.1		No				0	1	3	9	28	36	18	4	1	0					23,014	*
89		18	22		-	6	63.5		No				0	0	1	6	20	36	26	9	2	0	0				18,713	*
88		18	23		-	5	47.7		No					0	0	4	12	31	31	16	5	1	0				14,533	*
87		17	23		-	6	32.8		No					0	0	2	7	24	33	24	9	2	0	0			11,129	*
86		17	24		-	5	19.8		No					0		1	3	15	31	29	15	4	1	0			8,347	*
85		16	24		-	6	9.8		No							1	1	8	24	32	23	10	2	0			6,195	*
84		16	25		-	5	4.8		No							0	0	4	16	29	29	16	4	0			4,392	*
83		16	26		-	4	2.1		No							0	0	2	10	24	32	23	8	1			2,887	*
82		15	26		-	5	0.7		No							0		1	4	16	32	30	14	2			2,021	*
81		15	27		-	4	0.1		No									0	2	11	25	35	21	6			1,374	*
80		14	27		-	5	0.3		No							0		0	1	5	20	36	28	10			933	*
79		14	28		-	4	Out		No											2	15	33	35	15			556	*
78		13	28		-	5	Out		No											1	8	35	37	19			367	*
77		12	28		-	6	Out		No											1	5	22	44	28			190	*
76		12	29		-	5	Out		No											1	6	12	35	46			121	*
75		12	30		-	4	Out		No													6	43	51			63	*
74		11	30		-	5	Out		No													11	26	63			35	*
73		11	31		-	4	Out		No													14	29	57			14	*
72		11	32		-	3	Out		No														33	67			9	*
71		10	32		-	4	Out		No														17	83			6	*
47	-70						Out		No															100			74	*

Total:							93.1	%	4.4	%	9	5	24	6	24	4	15	7	3	2	1	1	0	0			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	-0.6
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.1
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blues vs Sharks	+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7
Avalanche vs Canucks	-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Stars	-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0
Senators vs Canadiens	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-139						100
120		35	8		-	3	98	1			2
119		34	8		-	4	98		1		1
118		33	8		-	5	95	1	1		3
117		33	9		-	4	95	0	2		3
116		32	9		-	5	92	2	1		5
115		32	10		-	4	87	3	2		7
114		31	10		-	5	81	5	3		11
113		31	11		-	4	76	8	4		12				0
112		30	11		-	5	67	9	7	0	17	0			0
111		30	12		-	4	56	13	7	0	23	0			0
110		29	12		-	5	48	16	9	0	26	0	0		1				0
109		29	13		-	4	35	18	11	0	33	1	0		1
108		28	13		-	5	25	20	12	0	38	2	0		2				0
107		28	14		-	4	16	21	13	1	42	3	0		4	0			0
106		27	14		-	5	9	19	13	2	45	6	0		6	0			0
105		27	15		-	4	4	16	12	3	44	10	1		10	0	0		0
104		26	15		-	5	2	12	9	4	40	16	2	0	13	0	0		1
103		26	16		-	4	1	9	7	5	32	23	3	0	18	1	0		1		0
102		25	16		-	5	0	5	5	5	23	29	5	0	22	3	0		2	0	0
101		25	17		-	4	0	3	3	5	13	33	7	1	25	7	0		4	0	0
100		24	17		-	5	0	1	1	4	6	32	8	2	25	13	0		6	0	0		0
99		23	17		-	6		1	1	3	2	28	8	4	21	22	1	0	9	1	0	0	0
98		23	18		-	5		0	0	2	1	20	7	6	15	31	2	0	11	3	1	0	0
97		22	18		-	6		0	0	1	0	14	5	8	8	37	3	0	13	7	2	0	0
96		22	19		-	5		0	0	1	0	8	2	9	3	38	5	2	13	15	4	1	0	0
95		21	19		-	6		0		0		4	1	8	1	35	5	4	10	23	5	2	1	0
94		21	20		-	5				0		2	0	7	0	28	5	7	6	32	7	5	1	0	0	0
93		20	20		-	6				0		1	0	4	0	19	3	10	3	38	6	12	2	1	0	0	0
92		20	21		-	5				0		0	0	3	0	12	2	11	1	39	5	21	3	2	1	0	0	0
91		19	21		-	6				0		0		2		6	1	11	0	35	2	30	4	4	3	2	0	0
90		19	22		-	5						0		1		3	0	9	0	28	1	36	3	6	7	5	2	1	0	0
89		18	22		-	6						0		0		1	0	6		20	0	36	2	5	9	10	7	3	1	0
88		18	23		-	5								0		0	0	4		12	0	31	0	3	8	14	14	9	4	1	0
87		17	23		-	6								0		0		2		7		24	0	1	4	11	19	18	10	3	1	0	0
86		17	24		-	5								0				1		3		15		0	2	7	16	23	19	9	3	1	0
85		16	24		-	6												1		1		8		0	0	3	9	20	25	20	10	3	1	0
84		16	25		-	5												0		0		4			0	1	5	13	22	25	19	9	2	0
83		16	26		-	4												0		0		2				0	1	6	15	27	25	16	7	1	0
82		15	26		-	5												0				1					0	2	7	20	25	27	13	3	1
81		15	27		-	4																0					0	0	3	12	23	28	22	10	2	0
80		14	27		-	5												0				0							1	5	15	28	27	18	5	1
79		14	28		-	4																							0	1	7	22	32	28	8	1
78		13	28		-	5																								1	4	19	28	31	14	3
77		12	28		-	6																								1	1	9	25	36	26	3
76		12	29		-	5																									1	5	14	36	34	11
75		12	30		-	4																											11	33	37	19
74		11	30		-	5																											6	26	51	17
73		11	31		-	4																											7	29	50	14
72		12	33		-	1																												11	56	33
71		10	32		-	4																													67	33
47	-70																																			100

Total:							4	4	3	2	12	13	3	3	9	14	1	2	5	10	2	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0