Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 86.3%

46 points 21 8-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.2				-0.1
Devils 2 Senators 3	-0.2		+0.2
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.2		-0.2
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.3-0.1-0.4-0.1*+0.2+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.2-0.3+0.2
Sabres vs Stars	-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.3+0.3		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Blues vs Sharks			+0.2-0.3-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.2
Avalanche vs Canucks			+0.1-0.2+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings			+0.2-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Lightning finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

128	-144						In		Yes		100																75	*
127		38	6		-	5	In		90.0	%	90		10														10	*
122	-126						In		99.6		100																462	*
121		35	9		-	5	In		97.6		100		0														375	*
120		35	10		-	4	In		98.4		100																546	*
119		34	10		-	5	In		97.4		100	0	0														948	*
118		34	11		-	4	In		95.1		100	0	0														1,479	*
117		33	11		-	5	In		91.9		99	0	0														2,192	*
116		33	12		-	4	In		89.2		98	1	1														3,222	*
115		32	12		-	5	In		86.1		97	1	1														4,775	*
114		32	13		-	4	In		79.3		95	2	3		0												6,675	*
113		31	13		-	5	In		72.8		94	3	4		0												9,099	*
112		30	13		-	6	In		63.9		90	4	5		0												12,113	*
111		30	14		-	5	In		53.8		85	6	8		0												15,510	*
110		29	14		-	6	In		42.9		80	8	12	0	0												19,494	*
109		29	15		-	5	In		33.0		73	11	16	0	1		0										24,269	*
108		28	15		-	6	In		22.7		64	13	21	0	2		0										28,743	*
107		28	16		-	5	In		15.1		54	16	26	0	3		0										33,880	*
106		27	16		-	6	In		8.3		43	19	32	1	5		0	0									38,638	*
105		27	17		-	5	In		4.0		33	21	37	1	8	0	1	0									43,252	*
104		26	17		-	6	In		1.6		22	21	40	3	12	0	2	0									47,311	*
103		26	18		-	5	100.0	%	0.5		14	19	40	5	18	0	3	0	0								49,868	*
102		25	18		-	6	100.0		0.1		8	17	37	8	24	0	6	1	0								52,034	*
101		25	19		-	5	99.9		0.0		4	13	30	11	30	1	9	1	0								53,355	*
100		24	19		-	6	99.8		No		2	9	22	13	34	2	15	3	0	0							52,794	*
99		24	20		-	5	99.4		No		1	6	14	14	34	5	21	6	1	0							51,623	*
98		23	20		-	6	98.3		No		0	3	7	13	29	8	28	10	2	0	0						48,817	*
97		23	21		-	5	95.9		No		0	2	3	10	22	11	32	16	4	0	0						44,953	*
96		22	21		-	6	90.6		No		0	1	1	7	14	12	32	24	8	1	0	0					40,817	*
95		22	22		-	5	80.8		No		0	0	0	4	7	12	27	30	15	4	1	0					36,542	*
94		21	22		-	6	66.7		No			0	0	2	3	10	20	32	23	8	2	0	0				31,150	*
93		21	23		-	5	48.5		No			0	0	1	1	6	12	28	29	16	5	1	0				26,644	*
92		20	23		-	6	30.4		No			0		0	0	4	6	20	30	25	11	3	0	0			22,019	*
91		20	24		-	5	16.5		No					0	0	2	2	12	25	29	19	8	2	0			17,810	*
90		19	24		-	6	7.4		No					0	0	1	1	6	18	28	27	15	4	1	0		13,954	*
89		19	25		-	5	2.6		No					0		0	0	2	10	23	30	23	10	2	0		10,877	*
88		18	25		-	6	0.9		No							0	0	1	4	16	28	29	17	5	0	0	8,324	*
87		18	26		-	5	0.2		No							0	0	0	2	8	22	33	25	10	1		6,096	*
86		17	26		-	6	Out		No										1	4	14	29	32	16	3	0	4,320	*
85		17	27		-	5	Out		No										0	1	8	23	36	25	7	0	3,102	*
84		16	27		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	16	34	34	12	0	2,087	*
83		16	28		-	5	Out		No											0	2	9	30	40	19	1	1,453	*
82		15	28		-	6	Out		No												1	5	24	43	26	2	1,002	*
81		15	29		-	5	Out		No												0	2	15	42	37	4	599	*
80		14	29		-	6	Out		No													0	9	39	45	7	358	*
79		14	30		-	5	Out		No													1	7	26	59	8	246	*
78		14	31		-	4	Out		No													1	3	22	60	14	151	*
77		13	31		-	5	Out		No														5	14	60	21	95	*
76		12	31		-	6	Out		No														2	4	74	19	47	*
75		12	32		-	5	Out		No																65	35	17	*
74		13	34		-	2	Out		No																64	36	11	*
73		12	34		-	3	Out		No																43	57	7	*
72		12	35		-	2	Out		No																	100	3	*
71		10	34		-	5	Out		No																25	75	4	*
46	-67						Out		No																	100	73	*

Total:							86.3	%	8.6	%	20	9	17	5	14	3	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.1
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*-0.0
Devils 2 Senators 3	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sabres vs Stars	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Capitals vs Bruins	-0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Senators vs Canadiens	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Blues vs Sharks	-0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.0+0.0
Avalanche vs Canucks	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

128	-144						100
127		38	6		-	5	90				10
123	-126						100
122		36	9		-	4	99	1
121		35	9		-	5	98	2			0
120		35	10		-	4	98	2
119		34	10		-	5	97	2	0		0
118		34	11		-	4	95	4	0		0
117		33	11		-	5	92	7	0		0
116		33	12		-	4	89	9	1		1
115		32	12		-	5	86	11	1		1
114		32	13		-	4	79	16	2		3				0
113		31	13		-	5	73	21	3	0	4	0			0
112		30	13		-	6	64	26	4	0	5	0			0
111		30	14		-	5	54	32	6	0	8	0			0
110		29	14		-	6	43	37	8	0	12	0	0		0
109		29	15		-	5	33	40	10	1	15	1	0		1				0
108		28	15		-	6	23	41	12	1	20	1	0		2				0
107		28	16		-	5	15	39	14	3	24	2	0		3	0			0
106		27	16		-	6	8	35	14	4	28	5	1		5	0			0		0
105		27	17		-	5	4	29	14	6	29	8	1		8	0	0		1		0
104		26	17		-	6	2	21	12	9	28	13	3	0	12	0	0		2		0
103		26	18		-	5	0	14	9	10	23	17	5	0	17	1	0		3	0	0		0
102		25	18		-	6	0	8	6	10	16	21	8	0	22	2	0		5	0	1		0
101		25	19		-	5	0	4	4	10	10	20	10	1	25	5	1		9	0	1		0
100		24	19		-	6		2	2	7	4	17	12	2	25	9	2	0	15	0	3		0	0
99		24	20		-	5		1	1	5	1	12	11	3	21	12	5	0	20	1	6	0	1	0
98		23	20		-	6		0	0	3	0	7	8	4	14	15	8	0	25	3	10	0	2	0	0
97		23	21		-	5		0	0	2	0	3	5	5	7	14	11	0	27	5	16	0	4	0	0
96		22	21		-	6		0	0	1	0	1	3	4	3	11	11	1	23	9	23	1	8	1	0	0
95		22	22		-	5		0		0	0	0	1	3	1	6	10	2	16	11	28	2	15	4	1	0
94		21	22		-	6				0		0	0	2	0	3	7	3	9	11	28	4	23	9	2	0	0
93		21	23		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	1	4	3	4	9	22	6	29	16	5	1	0	0
92		20	23		-	6				0			0	0	0	0	2	2	1	5	12	8	28	25	12	4	1	0
91		20	24		-	5								0		0	1	1	0	2	5	7	21	29	21	9	2	0
90		19	24		-	6								0		0	0	1	0	1	1	4	12	25	28	19	7	1	0	0
89		19	25		-	5								0			0	0	0	0	0	2	5	15	27	26	16	6	2	0	0
88		18	25		-	6												0		0	0	1	1	7	18	27	25	15	5	1	0	0
87		18	26		-	5												0		0		0	0	2	8	19	26	23	14	5	2	0
86		17	26		-	6																	0	0	3	10	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0
85		17	27		-	5																		0	0	4	10	20	26	22	12	4	1	0
84		16	27		-	6												0							0	1	3	11	23	28	21	10	3	1
83		16	28		-	5																				0	1	4	13	24	27	19	8	2	0	0
82		15	28		-	6																				0	0	2	4	17	27	25	17	7	1	0
81		15	29		-	5																						0	2	8	20	33	24	10	2	0
80		14	29		-	6																								5	12	27	32	17	6	1
79		14	30		-	5																								1	9	12	33	32	13	1
78		14	31		-	4																								1	3	9	26	35	25	1
77		13	31		-	5																										7	20	43	23	6
76		12	31		-	6																										2	4	36	51	6
75		12	32		-	5																											6	29	53	12
74		12	33		-	4																											9	9	55	27
73		12	34		-	3																												29	43	29
72		12	35		-	2																														100
71		10	34		-	5																													50	50
46	-67																																			100

Total:							9	12	5	4	10	7	4	1	9	4	3	0	8	2	6	1	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0