Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Oilers 2-1 (so), playoff odds up 3.4 to 20.6%

31 points 12 15-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	+3.1		+0.3
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.5
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	*-0.2

Saturday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flames finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

127		48	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																72
113		39	5		-	4	In		50.0	%	50		50														2	*
112		37	4		-	7	In		50.0		100																4	*
111		37	5		-	6	In		90.0		90		10														10	*
110		38	7		-	3	In		47.8		70	4	26														23	*
109		37	7		-	4	In		13.6		41	18	41														22	*
108		36	7		-	5	In		24.6		40	4	46		11												57	*
107		36	8		-	4	In		15.3		31	20	41		8												85	*
106		35	8		-	5	In		7.8		23	9	53		12		2										180	*
105		35	9		-	4	In		3.1		17	10	52		19		2										294	*
104		34	9		-	5	In		1.4		9	11	53	1	23		3	0									517	*
103		34	10		-	4	In		0.5		5	8	46	2	34		5	1									776	*
102		33	10		-	5	In		0.2		3	6	39	3	36	0	10	1									1,263	*
101		33	11		-	4	99.8	%	No		1	4	33	4	40	0	15	2	0								1,986	*
100		32	11		-	5	100.0		No		1	2	22	6	44	1	21	3	0								2,966	*
99		32	12		-	4	99.8		No		0	1	15	6	43	1	28	6	0								4,292	*
98		31	12		-	5	99.3		No		0	1	9	5	39	2	35	9	1	0							6,170	*
97		31	13		-	4	98.4		No		0	0	5	4	32	3	39	15	2	0							8,411	*
96		30	13		-	5	97.0		No		0	0	2	4	24	4	41	21	3	0							11,385	*
95		30	14		-	4	94.3		No			0	1	2	16	5	42	28	5	0	0						14,939	*
94		29	14		-	5	90.0		No			0	0	2	10	5	38	35	9	1	0						18,599	*
93		28	14		-	6	82.7		No			0	0	1	5	4	32	40	15	2	0						23,534	*
92		28	15		-	5	72.6		No				0	0	2	3	24	43	23	4	0	0					28,203	*
91		27	15		-	6	60.5		No				0	0	1	2	17	40	30	8	1	0					33,166	*
90		27	16		-	5	45.9		No					0	0	1	10	34	37	14	3	0	0				38,387	*
89		26	16		-	6	32.0		No					0	0	1	5	26	39	22	6	1	0				42,897	*
88		26	17		-	5	20.2		No					0	0	0	3	17	36	30	12	2	0	0			46,711	*
87		25	17		-	6	11.1		No						0	0	1	10	30	34	19	6	1	0			50,324	*
86		25	18		-	5	5.5		No							0	0	5	21	34	27	10	2	0			53,156	*
85		24	18		-	6	2.4		No							0	0	2	13	30	32	17	4	0			53,714	*
84		24	19		-	5	0.9		No							0	0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1			53,236	*
83		23	19		-	6	0.3		No							0	0	0	4	16	32	32	14	2			52,082	*
82		23	20		-	5	0.1		No								0	0	1	10	27	36	21	4			49,020	*
81		22	20		-	6	0.0		No									0	1	5	20	37	29	8			46,113	*
80		22	21		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	3	14	34	36	14			41,642	*
79		21	21		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	29	41	21			36,678	*
78		21	22		-	5	Out		No										0	0	5	23	43	28			32,239	*
77		20	22		-	6	Out		No										0	0	3	16	42	38			27,168	*
76		20	23		-	5	Out		No											0	1	11	40	48			22,477	*
75		19	23		-	6	Out		No											0	0	7	35	57			18,212	*
74		19	24		-	5	Out		No											0	0	4	29	66			14,229	*
73		18	24		-	6	Out		No												0	2	24	73			11,134	*
72		18	25		-	5	Out		No												0	1	19	80			8,416	*
71		17	25		-	6	Out		No													1	14	85			6,153	*
70		17	26		-	5	Out		No													0	11	89			4,428	*
69		16	26		-	6	Out		No													0	7	93			3,029	*
68		16	27		-	5	Out		No													0	5	95			2,085	*
67		15	27		-	6	Out		No														3	97			1,378	*
66		15	28		-	5	Out		No														2	98			892	*
65		14	28		-	6	Out		No														1	99			603	*
64		14	29		-	5	Out		No														1	99			360	*
31	-63						Out		No															100			601	*

Total:							20.6	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	0	2	1	6	11	13	13	14	14	14	12			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	-0.6
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	+0.1
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Wild vs Jets	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

127		48	0		-	0	100
113		39	5		-	4	50				50
112		37	4		-	7	50	50
111		37	5		-	6	90				10
110		38	7		-	3	48	22	4		26
109		37	7		-	4	14	27	18		36	5
108		36	7		-	5	25	16	4		46				11
107		36	8		-	4	15	15	19	1	38	4			8
106		35	8		-	5	8	16	8	1	45	8			12				2
105		35	9		-	4	3	14	8	1	43	9			19	0			2
104		34	9		-	5	1	8	7	4	38	15	1		22	1			3		0
103		34	10		-	4	1	5	4	3	26	20	2	0	30	3			5	0	1
102		33	10		-	5	0	3	3	4	16	24	3	0	31	5	0		10	0	1
101		33	11		-	4		1	1	2	8	25	3	1	30	10	0		15	1	2		0
100		32	11		-	5		1	1	2	3	19	5	1	27	17	1		19	2	3		0
99		32	12		-	4		0	0	1	1	14	4	2	19	24	1	0	24	4	6	0	0
98		31	12		-	5		0	0	1	0	9	3	3	11	27	2	0	26	9	9	0	1	0
97		31	13		-	4		0		0	0	5	1	3	4	28	2	0	23	16	13	1	2	0
96		30	13		-	5		0		0		2	1	3	1	23	3	1	17	24	17	4	3	0	0
95		30	14		-	4				0		1	0	2	0	16	2	2	10	31	18	10	5	1	0
94		29	14		-	5				0		0	0	2	0	10	2	3	4	33	16	19	8	2	0	0
93		28	14		-	6				0		0	0	1		5	1	3	1	31	11	29	11	5	2	0	0
92		28	15		-	5						0		0		2	0	3	0	23	6	37	11	9	5	2	0	0	0
91		27	15		-	6						0		0		1	0	2	0	17	2	38	8	12	11	7	2	0	0	0
90		27	16		-	5								0		0	0	1	0	10	0	34	4	11	15	14	7	3	0	0
89		26	16		-	6								0		0	0	1		5	0	26	1	6	14	19	16	8	3	0	0	0
88		26	17		-	5								0		0		0		3	0	17	0	2	8	17	22	18	9	3	0	0	0
87		25	17		-	6										0		0		1		10	0	1	3	10	21	25	18	9	2	0	0	0
86		25	18		-	5												0		0		5	0	0	1	4	13	23	26	17	8	2	0	0
85		24	18		-	6												0		0		2		0	0	1	6	15	25	26	16	6	1	0	0	0
84		24	19		-	5												0		0		1		0	0	0	2	7	18	27	25	14	5	1	0
83		23	19		-	6												0		0		0			0	0	0	3	9	21	29	23	11	3	0	0
82		23	20		-	5														0		0				0	0	1	4	13	25	29	20	7	1	0
81		22	20		-	6																0					0	0	1	6	17	29	28	14	3	0
80		22	21		-	5																0					0	0	0	2	10	24	32	23	7	1
79		21	21		-	6																0						0	0	1	5	16	31	31	14	1
78		21	22		-	5																							0	0	2	10	26	37	22	3
77		20	22		-	6																								0	1	5	19	37	32	7
76		20	23		-	5																								0	0	2	12	34	40	11
75		19	23		-	6																									0	1	7	28	45	19
74		19	24		-	5																									0	0	4	21	48	26
73		18	24		-	6																										0	2	15	47	35
72		18	25		-	5																										0	1	10	46	43
71		17	25		-	6																											0	6	41	52
70		17	26		-	5																											0	4	35	61
69		16	26		-	6																											0	2	29	69
68		16	27		-	5																											0	1	23	76
67		15	27		-	6																												1	18	81
66		15	28		-	5																												0	14	86
65		14	28		-	6																													10	90
64		14	29		-	5																													7	93
63		14	30		-	4																													2	98
62		13	30		-	5																													2	98
61		12	30		-	6																													1	99
31	-60																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	5	2	9	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	8	7	4