Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 11.5%

28 points 13 20-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.2
Predators 1 Wild 2	-0.2
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Avalanche vs Canucks	+2.6+2.7+1.9-0.7-0.9-3.1		+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blues vs Sharks	-0.3-0.8-0.5+0.2+0.3+0.4		-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Sabres vs Stars	+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Avalanche finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122		47	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																72
108		37	4		-	6	In		No				100														1
107		37	5		-	5	In		37.5	%	50	13	38														8	*
106		37	6		-	4	In		5.6		33	33	28	6													18	*
105		36	6		-	5	In		No		22	44	28		6												18	*
104		36	7		-	4	In		2.4		15	44	32	5	5												41	*
103		35	7		-	5	In		1.1		19	40	30	8	4												91	*
102		35	8		-	4	In		0.8		6	43	22	21	8												125	*
101		34	8		-	5	In		No		3	31	33	24	8	1											242	*
100		34	9		-	4	In		No		1	24	26	33	13	1	1										411	*
99		33	9		-	5	In		No		1	21	19	40	15	3	2										725	*
98		33	10		-	4	In		No		0	17	13	44	17	6	3										1,128	*
97		32	10		-	5	99.9	%	No			11	8	44	20	12	5	0	0								1,830	*
96		32	11		-	4	99.8		No			7	4	41	18	20	7	1	0								2,784	*
95		31	11		-	5	99.6		No			4	2	37	16	27	11	3	0								4,036	*
94		31	12		-	4	98.4		No			2	1	30	12	34	13	6	1	0							5,711	*
93		30	12		-	5	96.3		No			1	0	23	7	40	14	11	3	0	0						7,929	*
92		30	13		-	4	91.0		No			1	0	17	4	39	14	16	7	1	0	0					10,622	*
91		29	13		-	5	82.1		No			0	0	10	2	37	12	21	13	4	1	0					14,018	*
90		29	14		-	4	69.4		No			0		7	1	31	10	22	20	8	2	0					18,292	*
89		28	14		-	5	53.7		No			0		4	0	24	6	20	26	15	4	1	0	0			22,581	*
88		28	15		-	4	38.5		No			0		2	0	18	3	16	27	23	9	2	0				27,513	*
87		27	15		-	5	24.4		No			0		1	0	12	1	10	27	28	16	4	1	0			32,894	*
86		26	15		-	6	14.4		No					0	0	7	1	6	21	32	23	9	2	0			38,018	*
85		26	16		-	5	7.3		No					0	0	4	0	3	14	29	30	15	4	0			42,863	*
84		25	16		-	6	3.5		No					0		2	0	1	8	24	33	23	7	1			46,617	*
83		25	17		-	5	1.5		No					0		1	0	0	4	17	32	30	13	2			50,376	*
82		24	17		-	6	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	2	11	28	35	20	4			52,626	*
81		24	18		-	5	0.2		No							0	0	0	1	6	21	36	28	8			54,244	*
80		23	18		-	6	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	14	33	36	14			54,246	*
79		23	19		-	5	0.0		No							0	0		0	1	9	28	41	21			52,575	*
78		22	19		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	1	5	22	43	29			49,999	*
77		22	20		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	16	42	38			46,624	*
76		21	20		-	6	Out		No											0	1	11	39	48			42,259	*
75		21	21		-	5	Out		No											0	1	7	35	58			37,685	*
74		20	21		-	6	Out		No											0	0	4	30	66			32,798	*
73		20	22		-	5	Out		No												0	2	23	75			27,563	*
72		19	22		-	6	Out		No												0	1	18	81			23,038	*
71		19	23		-	5	Out		No												0	1	13	86			18,548	*
70		18	23		-	6	Out		No													0	10	90			14,500	*
69		18	24		-	5	Out		No													0	7	93			11,059	*
68		17	24		-	6	Out		No													0	4	96			8,294	*
67		17	25		-	5	Out		No													0	3	97			6,113	*
66		17	26		-	4	Out		No														2	98			4,387	*
65		16	26		-	5	Out		No													0	1	99			3,049	*
64		15	26		-	6	Out		No														1	99			2,061	*
63		15	27		-	5	Out		No														1	99			1,342	*
62		15	28		-	4	Out		No														0	100			876	*
61		14	28		-	5	Out		No														0	100			554	*
28	-60						Out		No															100			916	*

Total:							11.5	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	2	0	5	1	3	6	9	12	16	20	26			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Avalanche vs Canucks	-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1+0.2+0.8
Blues vs Sharks	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Sabres vs Stars	-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.0
Wild vs Jets	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1*+0.1-0.0
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122		47	0		-	0	100
108		37	4		-	6					100
107		37	5		-	5	38	13	13		38
106		37	6		-	4	6	28	28	6	28		6
105		36	6		-	5		22	44		22	6			6
104		36	7		-	4	2	12	37	7	29	2	5		5
103		35	7		-	5	1	18	27	12	18	12	8		4
102		35	8		-	4	1	5	28	15	7	15	20	1	7	1
101		34	8		-	5		3	10	20	12	21	24		7	2	1
100		34	9		-	4		1	7	17	5	21	28	5	11	1	1		1	0
99		33	9		-	5		1	4	17	1	18	26	14	8	7	3		2
98		33	10		-	4		0	2	15	0	12	28	17	6	11	6	0	2	1
97		32	10		-	5			1	10		8	20	24	4	15	11	1	3	2	0	0	0
96		32	11		-	4			0	7		4	14	28	2	16	16	4	4	3	1	0	0
95		31	11		-	5			0	4		2	7	30	1	15	19	9	4	7	3	1	0
94		31	12		-	4				2		1	3	27	0	12	17	17	3	10	4	2	1	0		0
93		30	12		-	5				1		0	1	22	0	7	13	27	2	13	5	6	3	1	0	0
92		30	13		-	4				1		0	0	16		4	8	31	1	14	4	12	5	3	1	0	0	0
91		29	13		-	5				0		0	0	10		2	4	33	0	12	2	19	5	6	4	2	1	0
90		29	14		-	4				0			0	6		1	2	29	0	10	1	21	4	8	9	6	3	1	0	0
89		28	14		-	5				0				4		0	0	23		6	0	20	2	6	12	13	8	4	1	0	0
88		28	15		-	4				0				2		0	0	17		3	0	16	1	4	9	16	16	10	4	1	0	0	0
87		27	15		-	5				0				1		0	0	12		1		10	0	1	5	13	20	19	12	5	1	0	0
86		26	15		-	6								0		0		7		1		6	0	0	2	7	16	23	21	12	4	1	0	0
85		26	16		-	5								0		0		4		0		3	0	0	0	2	9	18	25	21	12	4	1	0	0
84		25	16		-	6								0				2		0		1		0	0	1	3	11	21	26	21	10	3	0	0	0
83		25	17		-	5								0				1		0		0			0	0	1	4	13	24	27	19	8	2	0	0
82		24	17		-	6								0				0		0		0			0	0	0	1	6	16	27	27	16	5	1	0
81		24	18		-	5												0		0		0				0	0	0	2	8	20	30	25	11	2	0
80		23	18		-	6												0				0					0	0	1	4	12	26	31	20	6	0
79		23	19		-	5												0		0								0	0	1	6	19	32	29	12	1
78		22	19		-	6												0											0	0	3	11	28	35	20	3
77		22	20		-	5												0											0	0	1	6	21	38	29	5
76		21	20		-	6																								0	0	3	14	35	38	9
75		21	21		-	5																									0	1	9	31	45	14
74		20	21		-	6																									0	1	5	24	50	21
73		20	22		-	5																										0	2	17	51	30
72		19	22		-	6																									0	0	1	11	49	39
71		19	23		-	5																										0	1	7	45	47
70		18	23		-	6																										0	0	5	40	55
69		18	24		-	5																											0	3	34	64
68		17	24		-	6																											0	1	28	71
67		17	25		-	5																												1	23	77
66		17	26		-	4																												1	17	82
65		16	26		-	5																												0	15	85
64		15	26		-	6																											0	0	10	89
63		15	27		-	5																													8	92
62		15	28		-	4																													5	95
61		14	28		-	5																													6	94
60		13	28		-	6																													1	99
59		13	29		-	5																													2	98
58		13	30		-	4																													2	98
56	-57																																			100
55		11	31		-	5																													5	95
28	-54																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	3	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	10