Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Lost to Flames 1-2 (so), playoff odds down 1 to 25.4%

34 points 16 18-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	-1.2		-0.1
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.6
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	*-0.2
Predators 1 Wild 2	*-0.1		+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Sabres vs Stars	+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.3+0.0-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oilers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

112	-126						In		Yes		100																80	*
111		37	6		-	3	In		50.0	%	63	13	25														8	*
110		36	6		-	4	In		45.5		45	9	36		9												11	*
109		36	7		-	3	In		45.5		58	6	36														33	*
108		35	7		-	4	In		20.6		33	16	49		2												63	*
107		35	8		-	3	In		14.2		32	19	46		3												113	*
106		34	8		-	4	In		11.1		23	17	53	1	7												198	*
105		34	9		-	3	In		3.1		21	11	52	1	14		1										359	*
104		33	9		-	4	In		1.4		10	12	52	1	22		2										587	*
103		32	9		-	5	In		0.7		7	9	52	3	26		3										965	*
102		32	10		-	4	In		0.2		4	7	40	5	36	0	8	1									1,603	*
101		31	10		-	5	In		0.0		2	4	34	6	40	0	12	1									2,415	*
100		31	11		-	4	99.9	%	No		1	3	25	7	44	0	18	2	0								3,582	*
99		30	11		-	5	99.8		No		0	2	17	7	44	1	23	4	0								5,235	*
98		30	12		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	11	7	40	2	30	8	0	0							7,330	*
97		29	12		-	5	99.0		No		0	1	6	6	35	3	37	12	1	0							9,972	*
96		29	13		-	4	97.9		No		0	0	3	4	27	4	41	18	2	0							13,295	*
95		28	13		-	5	95.8		No		0	0	1	3	19	5	42	25	4	0							17,630	*
94		28	14		-	4	92.0		No			0	1	2	12	5	40	32	8	0							21,708	*
93		27	14		-	5	86.5		No			0	0	1	7	5	35	38	12	1	0						26,831	*
92		27	15		-	4	77.2		No			0	0	0	3	4	27	42	20	3	0	0					31,849	*
91		26	15		-	5	66.1		No				0	0	1	3	20	42	27	6	1	0					37,336	*
90		26	16		-	4	52.1		No					0	1	2	13	37	34	12	2	0	0				42,751	*
89		25	16		-	5	37.8		No				0	0	0	1	7	30	38	19	5	1	0	0			46,727	*
88		25	17		-	4	24.2		No					0	0	1	4	20	38	27	9	2	0	0			50,578	*
87		24	17		-	5	14.5		No					0	0	0	1	13	32	32	16	4	0	0			53,186	*
86		23	17		-	6	7.6		No					0		0	1	7	25	35	24	8	1	0			54,726	*
85		23	18		-	5	3.4		No							0	0	3	17	32	31	14	3	0			54,798	*
84		22	18		-	6	1.4		No							0	0	1	10	26	34	22	7	1			53,388	*
83		22	19		-	5	0.5		No								0	0	5	19	33	29	11	2			51,325	*
82		21	19		-	6	0.1		No								0	0	2	12	29	35	18	4			47,279	*
81		21	20		-	5	0.0		No									0	1	7	23	37	26	6			42,997	*
80		20	20		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	4	16	35	33	11			38,579	*
79		20	21		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	2	11	30	40	17			33,039	*
78		19	21		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	1	6	25	43	25			28,035	*
77		19	22		-	5	Out		No										0	0	3	19	43	34			23,129	*
76		18	22		-	6	Out		No										0	0	2	13	41	44			18,648	*
75		18	23		-	5	Out		No											0	1	9	38	53			14,635	*
74		17	23		-	6	Out		No												0	5	32	62			11,345	*
73		17	24		-	5	Out		No												0	3	27	70			8,454	*
72		17	25		-	4	Out		No												0	2	20	78			6,242	*
71		16	25		-	5	Out		No												0	1	15	84			4,460	*
70		16	26		-	4	Out		No													0	11	88			3,024	*
69		15	26		-	5	Out		No													0	8	92			2,124	*
68		15	27		-	4	Out		No													0	6	94			1,370	*
67		14	27		-	5	Out		No													0	3	97			822	*
66		14	28		-	4	Out		No														2	98			577	*
65		13	28		-	5	Out		No														2	98			341	*
64		13	29		-	4	Out		No														1	99			210	*
63		12	29		-	5	Out		No														1	99			119	*
62		12	30		-	4	Out		No														2	98			63	*
34	-61						Out		No															100			146	*

Total:							25.4	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	0	3	1	8	12	14	14	14	13	12	9			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	+0.2
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.1
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.1
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Capitals vs Bruins	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Avalanche vs Canucks	-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

112	-126						100
111		37	6		-	3	50	13	13		25
110		36	6		-	4	45		9		36				9
109		36	7		-	3	45	12	6		36
108		35	7		-	4	21	13	16		49				2
107		35	8		-	3	14	18	19	1	46				3
106		34	8		-	4	11	12	16	1	50	3	1		7
105		34	9		-	3	3	18	8	3	45	7	1		13	1			1
104		33	9		-	4	1	9	9	3	41	12	1		22	1			2
103		32	9		-	5	1	6	6	4	33	18	2	0	24	2			3
102		32	10		-	4	0	4	3	4	18	21	4	0	32	3	0		8	0	1
101		31	10		-	5	0	2	2	3	10	24	5	1	33	8	0		12	0	1
100		31	11		-	4		1	1	2	4	21	5	1	29	15	0		16	1	2		0
99		30	11		-	5		0	0	2	1	16	5	2	23	21	1		20	3	4	0	0
98		30	12		-	4		0	0	1	0	11	4	3	13	28	2	0	23	7	8	0	0	0
97		29	12		-	5		0	0	1	0	6	2	4	6	29	2	0	24	14	11	1	1	0
96		29	13		-	4		0		0		3	1	3	2	25	3	1	19	23	15	3	2	0	0
95		28	13		-	5		0	0	0		1	0	3	1	19	3	2	12	30	17	8	4	0	0
94		28	14		-	4				0		1	0	2	0	12	2	3	6	34	16	16	6	1	0	0	0	0
93		27	14		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	7	1	4	2	33	12	26	9	3	1	0	0	0
92		27	15		-	4				0		0	0	0		3	0	4	0	27	6	35	10	8	4	1	0	0	0
91		26	15		-	5						0		0		1	0	3	0	20	2	40	8	10	9	5	2	0	0
90		26	16		-	4								0		1	0	2	0	13	1	36	5	10	14	11	6	2	0	0	0
89		25	16		-	5						0		0		0	0	1		7	0	30	2	7	14	18	14	6	2	0	0	0
88		25	17		-	4								0		0	0	1		4	0	20	0	3	9	18	21	15	7	2	0	0
87		24	17		-	5								0		0		0		1		13	0	1	4	12	21	23	16	6	2	0	0
86		23	17		-	6								0				0		1		7	0	0	1	6	15	24	24	15	6	1	0	0	0
85		23	18		-	5												0		0		3		0	0	2	7	18	26	24	14	5	1	0
84		22	18		-	6												0		0		1		0	0	0	3	9	20	27	23	12	3	1	0	0
83		22	19		-	5														0		0				0	1	4	12	24	28	20	9	2	0	0
82		21	19		-	6														0		0				0	0	1	5	15	26	28	17	6	1	0
81		21	20		-	5																0				0	0	0	2	8	20	30	26	12	2	0
80		20	20		-	6																0					0	0	1	3	12	26	32	20	6	0
79		20	21		-	5																0						0	0	1	6	19	32	29	11	1
78		19	21		-	6																0						0	0	0	3	12	28	35	19	3
77		19	22		-	5																							0	0	1	6	22	38	28	5
76		18	22		-	6																								0	0	3	14	35	37	10
75		18	23		-	5																									0	1	9	31	43	16
74		17	23		-	6																									0	1	4	24	48	23
73		17	24		-	5																										0	3	17	48	32
72		17	25		-	4																										0	1	12	46	42
71		16	25		-	5																											0	7	42	50
70		16	26		-	4																											0	4	37	59
69		15	26		-	5																											0	2	30	68
68		15	27		-	4																												2	25	74
67		14	27		-	5																												1	19	81
66		14	28		-	4																												0	15	85
65		13	28		-	5																												1	11	89
64		13	29		-	4																													7	93
63		12	29		-	5																													5	95
62		12	30		-	4																													3	97
34	-61																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	6	2	10	2	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	7	6	3