St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 72.6%

37 points 16 12-5

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Predators 1 Wild 2	-0.4				-0.0
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.2
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	*-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Blues vs Sharks	+4.3+3.9+3.6-0.8*-0.5-5.2		+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2		+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Wild vs Jets	-0.2-0.5-0.9-0.2-0.3+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.0
Sabres vs Stars	+0.5+0.2-0.0-0.4-0.7-0.4				+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Avalanche vs Canucks	-0.3-0.6-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blues finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

116	-135						In		Yes		100																129	*
115		37	8		-	4	In		84.8	%	91	8	2														66	*
114		36	8		-	5	In		78.8		83	17															104	*
113		36	9		-	4	In		70.8		80	16	4														226	*
112		35	9		-	5	In		66.1		76	18	6														360	*
111		35	10		-	4	In		54.8		68	23	10														568	*
110		34	10		-	5	In		46.5		62	28	10	0	0												956	*
109		34	11		-	4	In		33.3		50	37	13	0	0												1,437	*
108		33	11		-	5	In		25.8		43	38	17	1	0												2,202	*
107		33	12		-	4	In		16.5		35	41	23	1	0												3,264	*
106		32	12		-	5	In		9.3		26	43	27	3	1												4,699	*
105		32	13		-	4	In		4.7		19	45	30	5	1												6,638	*
104		31	13		-	5	In		1.9		13	45	32	8	2	0											8,786	*
103		30	13		-	6	In		0.7		8	42	33	14	3	0											12,019	*
102		30	14		-	5	In		0.2		5	39	31	20	4	0	0										15,628	*
101		29	14		-	6	In		0.0		2	34	28	29	7	1	0										19,536	*
100		29	15		-	5	In		0.0		1	28	24	36	9	2	0										24,182	*
99		28	15		-	6	In		No		1	23	18	44	11	4	0	0									28,806	*
98		28	16		-	5	In		No		0	17	13	49	13	7	1	0									34,053	*
97		27	16		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	13	8	52	14	12	1	0	0								38,637	*
96		27	17		-	5	100.0		No		0	9	4	52	14	19	2	0	0								43,043	*
95		26	17		-	6	99.9		No		0	6	2	48	12	27	4	1	0	0							47,104	*
94		26	18		-	5	99.4		No			4	1	42	10	36	5	2	1	0	0						50,291	*
93		25	18		-	6	98.3		No			2	0	35	7	43	7	5	2	0	0						51,980	*
92		25	19		-	5	95.8		No			1	0	27	4	48	7	8	4	1	0						53,453	*
91		24	19		-	6	90.8		No			1	0	20	2	49	7	11	7	2	0	0					52,815	*
90		24	20		-	5	82.8		No			0	0	14	1	47	6	14	12	4	1	0	0				50,883	*
89		23	20		-	6	71.0		No			0	0	9	0	42	5	15	18	9	2	0	0				48,636	*
88		23	21		-	5	57.2		No			0		6	0	35	3	13	23	15	4	1	0	0			45,078	*
87		22	21		-	6	42.9		No			0		3	0	28	2	10	24	22	9	2	0	0			41,264	*
86		22	22		-	5	29.5		No			0		2		20	1	7	22	28	16	4	1	0			36,596	*
85		21	22		-	6	18.5		No					1		14	0	4	18	30	24	9	2	0			31,528	*
84		21	23		-	5	10.9		No					0		9	0	2	12	28	30	16	4	0			26,514	*
83		20	23		-	6	5.9		No					0		5	0	1	7	23	33	23	8	1			22,020	*
82		20	24		-	5	3.1		No					0		3		0	4	16	32	30	13	2			17,729	*
81		19	24		-	6	1.4		No					0		1		0	2	10	28	34	20	4			14,074	*
80		19	25		-	5	0.8		No					0		1	0	0	1	6	20	35	29	9			10,866	*
79		18	25		-	6	0.3		No							0			0	3	14	33	35	14			8,341	*
78		18	26		-	5	0.1		No							0			0	1	9	28	41	22			6,243	*
77		17	26		-	6	0.1		No							0				0	5	21	44	30			4,411	*
76		17	27		-	5	Out		No											0	2	16	42	39			3,050	*
75		16	27		-	6	Out		No											0	2	10	39	49			2,196	*
74		16	28		-	5	Out		No												1	7	35	57			1,440	*
73		15	28		-	6	Out		No												0	3	29	68			931	*
72		15	29		-	5	Out		No													1	19	80			544	*
71		15	30		-	4	Out		No													2	15	83			371	*
70		14	30		-	5	Out		No													1	11	88			217	*
69		14	31		-	4	Out		No														7	93			150	*
68		13	31		-	5	Out		No														6	94			87	*
67		13	32		-	4	Out		No															100			44	*
66		13	33		-	3	Out		No														7	93			29	*
37	-65						Out		No															100			96	*

Total:							72.6	%	0.5	%	1	7	5	22	5	24	3	5	7	7	6	4	3	1			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Predators 1 Wild 2	+0.1
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.1
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.0
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blues vs Sharks	-0.9-0.8-0.7+0.2+0.1+1.0
Sabres vs Stars	-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Wild vs Jets	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Capitals vs Bruins	+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0
Avalanche vs Canucks	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

116	-135						100
115		37	8		-	4	85	6	8		2
114		36	8		-	5	79	4	17
113		36	9		-	4	71	9	16		4
112		35	9		-	5	66	9	18		6
111		35	10		-	4	55	13	23	0	10
110		34	10		-	5	47	15	27	0	10	0	0		0
109		34	11		-	4	33	16	36	1	12	0	0		0
108		33	11		-	5	26	18	37	1	17	1	1		0
107		33	12		-	4	17	18	39	2	22	1	1		0
106		32	12		-	5	9	17	38	5	25	2	3		1
105		32	13		-	4	5	15	37	8	25	5	5		1	0
104		31	13		-	5	2	11	33	11	24	9	8	0	2	0	0
103		30	13		-	6	1	7	27	16	21	13	14	0	3	0	0
102		30	14		-	5	0	5	20	19	16	16	19	1	4	0	0		0
101		29	14		-	6	0	2	13	21	9	19	26	2	5	1	1		0
100		29	15		-	5	0	1	8	20	5	19	31	6	6	3	2	0	0
99		28	15		-	6		1	4	19	2	16	32	12	6	5	4	0	0	0	0
98		28	16		-	5		0	2	15	0	12	29	20	5	8	7	0	1	0	0
97		27	16		-	6		0	1	12	0	8	22	29	3	11	11	1	1	0	0	0	0
96		27	17		-	5		0	0	9	0	4	15	37	2	12	14	4	1	1	0	0	0
95		26	17		-	6		0	0	6		2	8	40	0	12	17	10	1	2	1	0	0	0
94		26	18		-	5			0	4		1	4	38	0	10	16	19	1	4	2	1	1	0	0
93		25	18		-	6			0	2		0	2	33	0	7	13	30	1	6	2	3	1	0	0	0
92		25	19		-	5				1		0	1	27		4	9	39	0	7	2	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
91		24	19		-	6			0	1		0	0	20		2	5	45	0	7	1	10	3	3	2	1	0	0	0
90		24	20		-	5				0		0	0	14		1	2	45	0	6	1	14	3	5	5	3	1	0	0	0
89		23	20		-	6				0		0	0	9		0	1	41		5	0	15	1	4	7	8	5	2	0	0	0
88		23	21		-	5				0			0	6		0	0	35		3	0	13	0	3	7	11	11	7	3	1	0	0	0
87		22	21		-	6				0				3		0	0	28		2		10	0	1	4	10	16	14	8	3	1	0	0
86		22	22		-	5				0				2			0	20		1		7	0	0	2	6	14	20	17	9	3	0	0
85		21	22		-	6								1				14		0		4	0	0	0	3	9	18	23	18	8	2	0	0	0
84		21	23		-	5								0				9		0		2		0	0	1	4	12	22	25	17	7	2	0	0
83		20	23		-	6								0				5		0		1				0	1	6	15	25	25	15	5	1	0	0
82		20	24		-	5								0				3				0				0	0	2	9	19	28	23	12	3	0
81		19	24		-	6								0				1				0					0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1	0
80		19	25		-	5								0				1		0		0					0	0	1	5	16	28	29	16	4	0
79		18	25		-	6												0										0	0	2	9	23	32	23	8	1
78		18	26		-	5												0										0	0	1	4	15	30	33	15	2
77		17	26		-	6												0											0	0	1	9	23	38	24	5
76		17	27		-	5																								0	1	5	17	37	33	8
75		16	27		-	6																									0	2	10	31	41	14
74		16	28		-	5																									0	1	6	28	45	20
73		15	28		-	6																										0	3	20	49	28
72		15	29		-	5																											1	12	44	42
71		15	30		-	4																											1	8	42	49
70		14	30		-	5																											0	6	42	52
69		14	31		-	4																												3	35	61
68		13	31		-	5																												1	32	67
67		13	32		-	4																													16	84
66		12	32		-	5																													17	83
65		11	32		-	6																													18	82
37	-64																																			100

Total:							0	1	3	5	2	3	7	16	1	4	5	19	0	3	0	5	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	0