Minnesota Wild Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Predators 2-1, playoff odds up 5.4 to 45.9%

35 points 16 16-3

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Predators 1 Wild 2	+5.4		+0.4
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.4
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Wild vs Jets	+5.7+5.4+4.7-1.5-1.7-6.7		+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
Sabres vs Stars	+0.8+0.0+0.3-1.0-0.9-0.6		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Blues vs Sharks	-0.7-0.8-0.6+0.2-0.4+0.9		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Wild finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

114	-129						In		98.7	%	100																76	*
113		37	6		-	4	In		75.0		75	25															8	*
112		37	7		-	3	In		84.0		84	12	4														25	*
111		36	7		-	4	In		51.9		65	23	12														52	*
110		35	7		-	5	In		46.1		63	26	11														76	*
109		35	8		-	4	In		38.7		56	27	17														142	*
108		35	9		-	3	In		21.7		45	34	20	0													226	*
107		34	9		-	4	In		20.9		38	39	22	2													422	*
106		33	9		-	5	In		8.3		27	42	28	4	0												738	*
105		33	10		-	4	In		4.7		19	44	31	5	1												1,139	*
104		32	10		-	5	In		2.4		12	43	33	9	2												1,689	*
103		32	11		-	4	In		0.6		8	41	33	14	4	0											2,698	*
102		31	11		-	5	In		0.1		5	37	32	21	6	0	0										3,925	*
101		31	12		-	4	In		0.0		2	32	28	28	8	1	0										5,697	*
100		30	12		-	5	In		No		1	26	23	36	11	2	1	0									7,991	*
99		30	13		-	4	In		No		1	20	17	42	15	5	1	0									10,639	*
98		29	13		-	5	In		No		0	15	11	47	16	9	2	0									14,181	*
97		29	14		-	4	100.0	%	No		0	11	6	48	17	14	4	0	0								18,249	*
96		28	14		-	5	99.9		No		0	7	4	44	16	22	6	1	0	0							22,814	*
95		28	15		-	4	99.6		No			5	2	39	13	30	8	3	0	0							27,506	*
94		27	15		-	5	98.8		No		0	3	1	33	10	37	10	5	1	0							32,870	*
93		26	15		-	6	97.0		No			1	0	26	6	43	12	9	3	0	0						37,705	*
92		26	16		-	5	92.7		No			1	0	19	3	45	12	13	6	1	0	0					42,616	*
91		25	16		-	6	85.6		No			0	0	13	2	42	11	18	11	3	0	0					46,959	*
90		25	17		-	5	74.7		No			0	0	8	1	38	8	19	18	6	1	0	0				50,437	*
89		24	17		-	6	61.3		No			0		5	0	31	6	19	24	12	3	0	0				52,982	*
88		24	18		-	5	46.3		No			0		3	0	24	3	16	28	19	6	1	0	0			54,283	*
87		23	18		-	6	32.1		No			0		1	0	18	2	11	27	26	12	2	0	0			53,916	*
86		23	19		-	5	20.7		No			0		1	0	12	1	7	23	31	18	5	1	0			52,815	*
85		22	19		-	6	11.9		No					0	0	7	0	4	18	32	26	10	2	0			50,190	*
84		22	20		-	5	6.3		No					0		4	0	2	12	29	32	17	4	0			46,434	*
83		21	20		-	6	3.1		No					0		2	0	1	7	22	34	24	8	1			42,494	*
82		21	21		-	5	1.6		No					0		1	0	0	3	16	32	31	14	2			37,891	*
81		20	21		-	6	0.7		No					0		1		0	2	10	27	35	21	4			32,752	*
80		20	22		-	5	0.2		No							0		0	1	6	20	36	29	8			27,545	*
79		19	22		-	6	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	14	34	36	14			22,657	*
78		19	23		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	9	29	40	21			18,306	*
77		18	23		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	5	22	43	29			14,435	*
76		18	24		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	16	43	39			11,224	*
75		17	24		-	6	Out		No											0	1	11	39	48			8,273	*
74		17	25		-	5	Out		No											0	0	7	34	58			6,107	*
73		17	26		-	4	Out		No												0	4	30	66			4,401	*
72		16	26		-	5	Out		No												0	2	22	75			2,941	*
71		15	26		-	6	Out		No													1	19	80			2,063	*
70		15	27		-	5	Out		No													1	14	85			1,383	*
69		14	27		-	6	Out		No													0	9	90			878	*
68		14	28		-	5	Out		No														8	92			584	*
67		14	29		-	4	Out		No													0	6	94			341	*
66		13	29		-	5	Out		No														4	96			195	*
65		13	30		-	4	Out		No														1	99			118	*
35	-64						Out		No															100			232	*

Total:							45.9	%	0.1	%	0	2	1	10	3	18	4	7	11	12	11	9	7	4			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Predators 1 Wild 2	-1.0
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Wild vs Jets	-1.0-0.9-0.8+0.2+0.3+1.2
Sabres vs Stars	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Blues vs Sharks	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Avalanche vs Canucks	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1
Capitals vs Bruins	+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
Senators vs Canadiens	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

116	-129						100
114		38	6		-	3	67	33
113		37	6		-	4	75		25
112		37	7		-	3	84		12		4
111		36	7		-	4	52	13	23		12
110		35	7		-	5	46	17	26		11
109		35	8		-	4	39	17	27	1	17
108		35	9		-	3	22	23	32	2	19	1	0
107		34	9		-	4	21	17	36	3	20	1	2
106		33	9		-	5	8	19	38	4	25	3	4		0
105		33	10		-	4	5	14	38	6	28	4	5		1
104		32	10		-	5	2	10	33	11	25	9	9		2	0
103		32	11		-	4	1	7	26	14	21	12	14	0	3	0	0
102		31	11		-	5	0	5	19	17	15	16	20	1	5	1	0		0
101		31	12		-	4	0	2	13	19	9	19	27	2	7	1	1		0
100		30	12		-	5		1	7	19	4	18	31	5	8	3	2		1	0	0
99		30	13		-	4		1	4	17	1	16	31	11	8	6	5	0	1	0	0
98		29	13		-	5		0	2	13	0	10	28	19	6	10	8	0	2	0	0
97		29	14		-	4		0	1	10	0	6	21	27	4	13	13	1	3	1	0	0	0
96		28	14		-	5		0	0	7	0	4	13	32	2	14	17	5	3	3	1	0	0	0
95		28	15		-	4			0	4		2	7	32	1	13	19	11	3	5	2	0	0	0	0
94		27	15		-	5		0	0	3		1	3	30	0	10	17	20	2	8	3	2	1	0	0	0
93		26	15		-	6			0	1		0	1	25	0	6	13	30	1	11	4	5	2	1	0	0
92		26	16		-	5				1		0	0	18	0	3	8	37	0	12	3	10	4	2	1	0	0	0
91		25	16		-	6				0		0	0	13		2	4	38	0	11	2	16	4	5	3	1	0	0	0
90		25	17		-	5				0		0	0	8		1	2	36	0	8	1	19	3	7	7	5	2	1	0	0
89		24	17		-	6				0			0	5		0	0	31		6	0	19	2	5	10	11	7	3	1	0	0
88		24	18		-	5				0				3		0	0	24		3	0	16	1	3	9	14	14	9	3	1	0	0
87		23	18		-	6				0				1		0	0	18		2	0	11	0	1	5	12	18	17	10	4	1	0	0
86		23	19		-	5				0				1		0	0	12		1		7	0	0	2	7	16	22	19	10	3	1	0	0
85		22	19		-	6								0		0	0	7		0		4		0	0	3	9	19	24	19	9	3	1	0	0
84		22	20		-	5								0				4		0		2		0	0	1	4	12	22	26	18	8	2	0	0
83		21	20		-	6								0				2		0		1			0	0	1	5	15	25	26	17	6	1	0
82		21	21		-	5								0				1		0		0			0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	0	0
81		20	21		-	6								0				1				0					0	1	3	11	23	30	21	8	1	0
80		20	22		-	5												0				0					0	0	1	5	16	28	29	16	4	0
79		19	22		-	6												0				0						0	0	2	9	22	32	25	8	1
78		19	23		-	5												0										0	0	1	4	15	30	33	15	2
77		18	23		-	6												0				0							0	0	2	8	25	37	24	4
76		18	24		-	5												0												0	1	4	17	37	33	8
75		17	24		-	6																								0	0	2	11	33	41	13
74		17	25		-	5																									0	1	7	27	45	21
73		17	26		-	4																										0	3	20	48	29
72		16	26		-	5																										0	2	13	47	38
71		15	26		-	6																											1	9	45	45
70		15	27		-	5																											0	5	40	54
69		14	27		-	6																												3	35	62
68		14	28		-	5																												2	26	72
67		14	29		-	4																												2	23	75
66		13	29		-	5																												1	17	82
65		13	30		-	4																												1	15	84
64		12	30		-	5																													8	92
63		12	31		-	4																													5	95
62		11	31		-	5																													4	96
35	-61																																			100

Total:							0	0	1	2	0	1	3	8	1	2	3	14	0	3	1	6	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	6	6	6	5	4	3	1