New York Rangers Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Penguins 1-0, playoff odds up 5.1 to 40.3%

37 points 17 14-3

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Rangers 1 Penguins 0	+5.2		+0.1		+0.5
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.8				+0.1
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.3
Devils 2 Senators 3					+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.2-0.2-0.8-0.0+0.1+0.4				-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1
Flyers vs Hurricanes	-0.2-0.8-0.3-0.2+0.0+0.4				-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Bruins					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rangers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

116	-133						In		98.0	%	100																101	*
115		37	7		-	4	In		79.3		90	7	3														29	*
114		37	8		-	3	In		86.8		95	3	3														38	*
113		36	8		-	4	In		72.5		92	5	2														91	*
112		35	8		-	5	In		69.6		92	8	1														171	*
111		35	9		-	4	In		54.9		85	11	4														306	*
110		34	9		-	5	In		45.4		79	16	5														507	*
109		34	10		-	4	In		38.6		72	20	8														841	*
108		33	10		-	5	In		24.9		63	24	12	0	0												1,305	*
107		33	11		-	4	In		16.3		52	32	14	0	0		0										1,984	*
106		32	11		-	5	In		9.4		41	38	18	2	1												3,007	*
105		32	12		-	4	In		5.9		32	41	22	3	2												4,283	*
104		31	12		-	5	In		2.4		21	44	25	6	4	0	0										6,213	*
103		31	13		-	4	In		0.9		14	42	27	11	6	0	0										8,607	*
102		30	13		-	5	In		0.2		8	41	25	17	8	1	1	0									11,427	*
101		29	13		-	6	In		0.0		4	35	22	24	12	2	1	0									15,011	*
100		29	14		-	5	100.0	%	No		2	28	16	31	15	5	3	0	0								18,390	*
99		29	15		-	4	99.9		No		1	21	10	36	17	10	5	1	0	0							23,523	*
98		28	15		-	5	99.5		No		0	15	6	37	16	17	8	2	0	0	0						28,040	*
97		27	15		-	6	98.6		No		0	9	2	34	13	25	11	5	1	0	0						33,451	*
96		27	16		-	5	95.7		No		0	6	1	28	8	31	13	9	3	1	0		0				38,106	*
95		26	16		-	6	89.2		No			3	0	20	5	35	13	13	8	3	0	0	0				43,395	*
94		26	17		-	5	77.8		No			2	0	14	2	33	10	17	14	6	1	0	0				47,623	*
93		25	17		-	6	62.5		No			1	0	9	1	29	7	17	19	13	4	1	0				50,051	*
92		25	18		-	5	43.7		No			0		5	0	22	4	13	23	21	10	3	0	0			52,596	*
91		24	18		-	6	27.6		No			0	0	2	0	15	2	8	21	26	18	6	1	0			53,542	*
90		24	19		-	5	15.2		No			0		1	0	9	1	4	15	27	26	13	3	0	0		53,517	*
89		23	19		-	6	7.5		No			0		0		5	0	2	9	23	30	21	8	1	0		52,140	*
88		23	20		-	5	3.2		No					0		2	0	1	5	16	30	28	15	4	0		49,150	*
87		22	20		-	6	1.4		No					0		1	0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	1	0	45,928	*
86		22	21		-	5	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	1	4	16	31	31	14	2	0	41,788	*
85		21	21		-	6	0.1		No							0		0	0	2	10	26	35	22	5	0	36,704	*
84		21	22		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	5	19	36	30	9	0	31,864	*
83		20	22		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	12	32	37	15	0	27,059	*
82		20	23		-	5	0.0		No							0				0	1	7	26	41	24	1	22,497	*
81		19	23		-	6	0.0		No							0				0	0	4	19	42	33	2	17,949	*
80		19	24		-	5	Out		No												0	1	13	39	42	4	14,420	*
79		18	24		-	6	Out		No												0	1	7	34	51	7	10,831	*
78		18	25		-	5	Out		No												0	0	4	27	58	11	8,310	*
77		17	25		-	6	Out		No													0	2	21	60	16	6,038	*
76		17	26		-	5	Out		No														1	15	61	22	4,452	*
75		16	26		-	6	Out		No														0	10	60	29	3,075	*
74		16	27		-	5	Out		No														0	7	57	35	2,100	*
73		15	27		-	6	Out		No														0	3	51	46	1,440	*
72		15	28		-	5	Out		No														0	2	51	47	895	*
71		15	29		-	4	Out		No															2	39	59	582	*
70		14	29		-	5	Out		No															2	35	63	365	*
69		13	29		-	6	Out		No															1	27	73	200	*
68		13	30		-	5	Out		No															1	26	73	135	*
67		13	31		-	4	Out		No																14	86	84	*
66		12	31		-	5	Out		No																7	93	45	*
65		12	32		-	4	Out		No																	100	21	*
64		11	32		-	5	Out		No																21	79	14	*
37	-63						Out		No																	100	79	*

Total:							40.3	%	0.3	%	1	5	2	9	3	12	3	5	7	9	10	10	9	8	6	1	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rangers 1 Penguins 0	-0.9
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	-0.1
Islanders 3 Capitals 4 (so)	+0.1
Devils 2 Senators 3	-0.0
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Capitals vs Bruins	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Flyers vs Hurricanes	+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0
Avalanche vs Canucks	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.0
Blues vs Sharks	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Senators vs Canadiens	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0
Wild vs Jets	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

117	-133						100
116		37	6		-	5	88	12
115		37	7		-	4	79	10	7		3
114		37	8		-	3	87	8	3		3
113		36	8		-	4	73	20	5		2
112		35	8		-	5	70	22	8		1
111		35	9		-	4	55	30	11		4
110		34	9		-	5	45	34	15	0	5
109		34	10		-	4	39	33	19	1	8
108		33	10		-	5	25	38	22	2	12	0	0		0
107		33	11		-	4	16	36	28	4	13	1	0		0				0
106		32	11		-	5	9	32	31	7	17	2	2		1
105		32	12		-	4	6	26	31	10	19	3	3		2
104		31	12		-	5	2	19	30	14	19	6	6		4	0	0		0
103		31	13		-	4	1	13	24	18	18	9	11	0	6	0	0		0
102		30	13		-	5	0	8	19	21	13	12	16	0	8	0	1		1		0
101		29	13		-	6	0	4	13	22	9	13	23	1	11	1	2		1		0
100		29	14		-	5		2	8	20	5	12	29	3	13	3	5	0	3	0	0		0
99		29	15		-	4		1	4	17	2	9	31	5	12	4	10	0	5	0	1		0	0
98		28	15		-	5		0	2	13	1	5	28	8	10	6	17	0	7	0	2	0	0	0	0
97		27	15		-	6		0	1	8	0	2	22	12	6	7	24	0	10	1	5	0	1	0	0
96		27	16		-	5		0	0	5	0	1	15	13	3	6	30	1	10	2	9	0	3	1	0		0
95		26	16		-	6			0	3	0	0	8	12	1	4	31	3	9	4	13	0	8	3	0	0	0
94		26	17		-	5			0	2		0	4	10	0	2	27	6	6	4	15	1	14	7	1	0	0
93		25	17		-	6				1		0	2	7	0	1	20	9	3	4	14	3	19	13	5	1	0
92		25	18		-	5			0	0			1	4	0	0	12	9	1	3	9	4	22	21	10	3	0	0
91		24	18		-	6				0		0	0	2		0	6	8	0	2	5	4	19	26	19	7	1	0	0
90		24	19		-	5				0			0	1		0	3	6	0	1	1	3	12	25	27	15	5	1	0	0
89		23	19		-	6				0			0	0			1	4	0	0	0	2	6	17	29	24	12	3	1	0	0
88		23	20		-	5							0	0			0	2		0	0	1	2	9	22	29	22	10	3	1	0	0
87		22	20		-	6								0			0	1		0	0	0	0	3	11	24	28	20	9	3	1	0	0
86		22	21		-	5								0			0	0		0		0	0	1	4	13	24	27	18	8	2	0	0	0
85		21	21		-	6											0	0				0		0	1	5	15	25	26	17	8	2	0	0
84		21	22		-	5												0						0	0	2	7	17	25	25	16	6	2	0	0
83		20	22		-	6												0							0	0	2	8	19	26	25	14	5	1	0
82		20	23		-	5												0							0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	3	0	0
81		19	23		-	6												0						0		0	0	1	4	13	25	29	19	7	1	0
80		19	24		-	5																					0	0	2	6	18	28	28	15	3	0
79		18	24		-	6																						0	0	3	10	23	32	23	8	1
78		18	25		-	5																							0	1	5	16	31	32	14	2
77		17	25		-	6																							0	0	2	9	25	36	24	4
76		17	26		-	5																								0	1	5	19	37	32	8
75		16	26		-	6																									0	2	13	32	40	13
74		16	27		-	5																									0	1	7	27	46	19
73		15	27		-	6																										0	3	18	49	29
72		15	28		-	5																											2	15	49	34
71		15	29		-	4																											1	10	43	46
70		14	29		-	5																											0	6	39	55
69		13	29		-	6																												4	32	65
68		13	30		-	5																												2	31	67
67		13	31		-	4																												1	14	85
66		12	31		-	5																												2	4	93
65		12	32		-	4																														100
64		11	32		-	5																													21	79
37	-63																																			100

Total:							0	1	2	3	1	1	5	4	2	1	9	3	2	1	4	1	6	7	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	0