Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 85.9%

45 points 21 8-3

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Senators 3	-0.3		+0.3
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.3		-0.3
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.2				*+0.0
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.2				-0.1
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)			-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Sabres vs Stars	+2.7+2.7+2.6-0.1-0.2-3.5		+1.8+1.9+1.6-0.4*-0.4-2.2		+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.0*-0.1-0.5
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.4-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.2+0.4
Capitals vs Bruins	+0.3-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.3-0.1				+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Maple Leafs vs Panthers					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings					+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sabres finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

121	-145						In		99.5	%	100																1,010	*
120		35	10		-	5	In		96.8		100	0	0														630	*
119		35	11		-	4	In		95.8		99	0	1														1,055	*
118		34	11		-	5	In		94.5		99	0	0														1,606	*
117		34	12		-	4	In		91.1		99	0	1														2,550	*
116		33	12		-	5	In		89.0		98	1	1														3,554	*
115		33	13		-	4	In		83.0		97	1	2														5,080	*
114		32	13		-	5	In		76.9		95	2	3		0												7,206	*
113		31	13		-	6	In		69.3		92	3	5		0												9,419	*
112		31	14		-	5	In		61.3		89	4	7		0												12,602	*
111		30	14		-	6	In		51.0		84	6	10		0		0										16,414	*
110		30	15		-	5	In		40.3		77	9	13	0	1		0										20,234	*
109		29	15		-	6	In		30.1		70	11	18	0	1		0										24,783	*
108		29	16		-	5	In		20.3		61	14	23	0	2		0										29,625	*
107		28	16		-	6	In		12.9		51	16	29	0	3		0	0									34,748	*
106		28	17		-	5	In		6.8		40	19	34	1	6		0	0									38,986	*
105		27	17		-	6	In		3.1		29	20	39	2	10	0	1	0									43,505	*
104		27	18		-	5	100.0	%	1.2		20	20	42	3	14	0	2	0	0								47,317	*
103		26	18		-	6	100.0		0.4		12	18	40	6	20	0	3	0	0								49,788	*
102		26	19		-	5	100.0		0.1		7	15	36	9	26	0	6	1	0	0							52,208	*
101		25	19		-	6	99.9		0.0		3	12	29	11	32	1	10	1	0								52,588	*
100		25	20		-	5	99.7		No		1	8	20	14	35	3	16	3	0	0							52,497	*
99		24	20		-	6	99.3		No		0	5	12	14	33	5	23	6	1	0							50,410	*
98		24	21		-	5	98.0		No		0	3	6	12	29	9	29	11	2	0	0						47,643	*
97		23	21		-	6	95.3		No		0	1	3	9	21	12	32	18	4	0	0	0					44,474	*
96		23	22		-	5	89.2		No		0	1	1	6	13	13	31	25	9	2	0	0	0				40,265	*
95		22	22		-	6	78.7		No			0	0	3	6	12	26	30	16	4	1	0					35,500	*
94		22	23		-	5	63.1		No			0	0	2	3	9	18	31	25	9	2	0	0				30,930	*
93		21	23		-	6	44.8		No			0	0	1	1	6	11	27	30	18	6	1	0	0			26,076	*
92		21	24		-	5	27.2		No			0		0	0	3	5	18	30	26	12	4	1	0			21,640	*
91		20	24		-	6	13.9		No					0	0	2	2	10	24	29	21	9	2	0	0		17,686	*
90		20	25		-	5	6.0		No					0	0	1	1	5	16	28	27	17	5	1	0		13,861	*
89		19	25		-	6	2.4		No					0		0	0	2	9	21	30	24	11	2	0		10,767	*
88		19	26		-	5	0.7		No							0	0	1	4	13	27	31	20	5	1	0	7,916	*
87		18	26		-	6	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	7	18	32	28	12	2		6,023	*
86		18	27		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	3	12	28	34	19	4	0	4,387	*
85		17	27		-	6	Out		No										0	1	7	21	35	28	8	0	3,152	*
84		17	28		-	5	Out		No											1	3	15	32	37	12	1	2,155	*
83		16	28		-	6	Out		No											0	0	9	28	39	23	1	1,433	*
82		16	29		-	5	Out		No												0	3	23	42	28	2	972	*
81		16	30		-	4	Out		No												0	1	13	41	41	4	614	*
80		15	30		-	5	Out		No												0	0	10	34	47	9	364	*
79		14	30		-	6	Out		No													1	5	29	54	11	240	*
78		14	31		-	5	Out		No													1	7	20	55	17	167	*
77		14	32		-	4	Out		No														1	14	64	20	76	*
76		13	32		-	5	Out		No															13	60	28	40	*
75		13	33		-	4	Out		No															5	43	52	21	*
74		11	32		-	7	Out		No																50	50	12	*
73		11	33		-	6	Out		No																20	80	5	*
72		12	35		-	3	Out		No																14	86	7	*
71		11	35		-	4	Out		No																40	60	5	*
70		9	34		-	7	Out		No																100		1
45	-68						Out		No																	100	73	*

Total:							85.9	%	8.3	%	20	8	17	5	14	3	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.1
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	+0.1
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*-0.0
Devils 2 Senators 3	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sabres vs Stars	-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.1+0.1+0.9
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Capitals vs Bruins	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Senators vs Canadiens	+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-145						100
121		36	10		-	4	99	1
120		35	10		-	5	97	3	0		0
119		35	11		-	4	96	3	0		1
118		34	11		-	5	94	5	0		0
117		34	12		-	4	91	8	0		1
116		33	12		-	5	89	9	1		1
115		33	13		-	4	83	14	1		2
114		32	13		-	5	77	18	2		3				0
113		31	13		-	6	69	23	3	0	5				0
112		31	14		-	5	61	27	4	0	7	0			0
111		30	14		-	6	51	33	6	0	9	0			0				0
110		30	15		-	5	40	37	8	0	13	0	0		1				0
109		29	15		-	6	30	40	10	1	17	1	0		1				0
108		29	16		-	5	20	41	12	2	22	1	0		2	0			0
107		28	16		-	6	13	38	14	3	26	3	0		3	0			0		0
106		28	17		-	5	7	33	15	5	29	5	1		6	0			0		0
105		27	17		-	6	3	26	14	6	30	9	2	0	9	0	0		1		0
104		27	18		-	5	1	19	11	8	28	14	3	0	14	0	0		2		0		0
103		26	18		-	6	0	12	9	10	22	18	5	0	19	1	0		3	0	0		0
102		26	19		-	5	0	7	6	10	15	21	8	0	23	3	0		6	0	1		0	0
101		25	19		-	6	0	3	3	8	8	21	10	1	26	6	1		10	0	1		0
100		25	20		-	5		1	2	7	4	16	12	2	25	10	3	0	16	0	3		0	0
99		24	20		-	6		0	1	4	1	11	11	3	20	14	5	0	22	1	6	0	1	0
98		24	21		-	5		0	0	2	0	6	8	4	13	16	9	0	26	3	11	0	2	0	0
97		23	21		-	6		0	0	1	0	3	5	5	6	15	11	0	26	6	17	0	4	0	0	0
96		23	22		-	5		0	0	1	0	1	2	4	2	10	12	1	22	9	24	1	9	2	0	0	0
95		22	22		-	6				0		0	1	3	1	6	10	2	15	11	28	2	16	4	1	0
94		22	23		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	2	7	3	8	11	27	5	24	10	3	0	0
93		21	23		-	6				0		0	0	1	0	1	3	3	3	8	19	7	29	18	6	1	0	0
92		21	24		-	5				0			0	0		0	1	2	1	4	10	8	28	27	13	4	1	0
91		20	24		-	6							0	0		0	0	1	0	2	4	7	19	29	23	11	3	0	0
90		20	25		-	5								0		0	0	1	0	1	1	4	10	24	29	21	8	2	0	0	0
89		19	25		-	6								0			0	0		0	0	2	4	13	25	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
88		19	26		-	5												0		0	0	1	1	5	15	26	27	17	7	2	0	0
87		18	26		-	6												0		0		0	0	1	6	16	26	25	16	7	2	0
86		18	27		-	5																0	0	0	2	7	17	26	24	15	6	2	0	0
85		17	27		-	6																			1	2	7	19	26	23	15	5	2	0
84		17	28		-	5																			0	0	3	9	20	27	24	13	3	1	0
83		16	28		-	6																				0	1	4	10	21	29	21	12	2	0
82		16	29		-	5																						1	5	15	25	27	19	7	1	0
81		16	30		-	4																						0	2	7	19	30	26	13	3
80		15	30		-	5																							0	2	12	24	27	23	10	1
79		14	30		-	6																								1	6	20	26	31	15	1
78		14	31		-	5																								2	2	13	23	28	26	6
77		14	32		-	4																										5	21	32	37	5
76		13	32		-	5																										3	23	30	35	10
75		13	33		-	4																												19	62	19
74		11	32		-	7																											8	17	42	33
73		11	33		-	6																												20		80
72		12	35		-	3																													29	71
71		11	35		-	4																													40	60
70		9	34		-	7																													100
45	-68																																			100

Total:							8	12	5	4	10	7	4	1	10	4	3	0	8	2	6	1	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0