Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.03 to 92.7%

43 points 16 5-11

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.2				+0.1
Oilers 1 Flames 2 (so)	*-0.2
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)			*-0.1		-0.0
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1			-0.2
Devils 2 Senators 3			+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Avalanche vs Canucks	-2.2-0.3-0.1+1.4+1.7+1.8		-1.5*-0.2-0.4+1.0+1.4+1.3		-0.4*-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Sharks					+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Canucks finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

123	-143						In		Yes		100																165	*
122		37	8		-	5	In		98.7	%	99		1														79	*
121		37	9		-	4	In		99.2		99		1														126	*
120		36	9		-	5	In		98.7		99		1														237	*
119		36	10		-	4	In		97.2		98	1	1														386	*
118		35	10		-	5	In		96.1		97	1	2														692	*
117		35	11		-	4	In		93.8		95	1	4														1,022	*
116		34	11		-	5	In		90.1		92	2	6														1,665	*
115		34	12		-	4	In		86.5		90	3	7		0												2,511	*
114		33	12		-	5	In		81.0		86	4	11														3,754	*
113		32	12		-	6	In		73.7		81	5	14		0												5,023	*
112		32	13		-	5	In		64.3		75	7	18	0	0												7,176	*
111		31	13		-	6	In		55.7		69	8	22	0	0												9,706	*
110		31	14		-	5	In		43.8		60	11	28	0	1		0										12,573	*
109		30	14		-	6	In		32.8		51	12	35	0	1		0										15,972	*
108		30	15		-	5	In		23.1		43	13	41	0	2		0										20,440	*
107		29	15		-	6	In		14.6		35	15	46	0	4		0										24,871	*
106		29	16		-	5	In		8.2		26	15	52	1	6		0										29,798	*
105		28	16		-	6	In		3.9		19	15	55	1	10		0										34,468	*
104		28	17		-	5	In		1.6		13	14	56	2	14	0	1	0									39,158	*
103		27	17		-	6	In		0.5		8	12	55	4	20	0	1	0									43,374	*
102		27	18		-	5	In		0.1		5	10	51	6	26	0	2	0									47,056	*
101		26	18		-	6	In		0.0		2	8	45	8	32	0	5	0									49,511	*
100		26	19		-	5	100.0	%	0.0		1	5	37	10	39	1	7	0	0								51,808	*
99		25	19		-	6	100.0		No		0	4	28	12	43	1	12	1	0	0							52,614	*
98		25	20		-	5	100.0		No		0	2	19	13	45	2	17	1	0	0							52,064	*
97		24	20		-	6	99.9		No		0	1	12	12	44	4	24	3	0								50,365	*
96		24	21		-	5	99.8		No		0	1	7	11	40	7	30	5	0	0							47,736	*
95		23	21		-	6	99.3		No		0	0	3	9	32	9	37	9	1	0							44,436	*
94		23	22		-	5	98.4		No			0	1	6	24	12	41	14	2	0	0						40,385	*
93		22	22		-	6	96.2		No			0	1	4	17	13	41	21	4	0	0						35,686	*
92		22	23		-	5	91.7		No			0	0	2	10	12	39	28	7	1	0						30,870	*
91		21	23		-	6	84.5		No				0	1	5	11	34	34	13	2	0	0	0				26,112	*
90		21	24		-	5	73.1		No				0	1	2	8	26	37	21	5	1	0					21,648	*
89		20	24		-	6	58.7		No					0	1	5	17	36	28	11	2	0	0				17,689	*
88		20	25		-	5	43.7		No					0	0	3	11	30	32	18	5	1	0				13,951	*
87		19	25		-	6	28.5		No					0	0	2	5	21	33	25	11	2	0	0			10,958	*
86		19	26		-	5	16.7		No					0	0	1	2	13	29	31	17	5	1	0			8,316	*
85		18	26		-	6	8.8		No							0	1	8	22	31	25	11	2	0			6,206	*
84		18	27		-	5	4.2		No					0		0	0	4	14	27	33	17	5	0			4,337	*
83		17	27		-	6	1.6		No							0	0	1	7	23	33	24	9	1			3,104	*
82		17	28		-	5	0.6		No								0	1	3	14	31	32	16	3			2,175	*
81		16	28		-	6	0.2		No									0	2	10	24	34	24	6			1,463	*
80		16	29		-	5	Out		No										1	4	17	35	32	11			971	*
79		16	30		-	4	Out		No										0	2	10	35	37	16			629	*
78		15	30		-	5	Out		No											1	9	22	40	27			394	*
77		15	31		-	4	Out		No											0	5	20	42	33			239	*
76		13	30		-	7	Out		No												1	11	45	43			142	*
75		14	32		-	4	Out		No												1	10	40	49			84	*
74		14	33		-	3	Out		No													4	40	56			50	*
73		13	33		-	4	Out		No														17	83			24	*
72		12	33		-	5	Out		No														33	67			15	*
43	-71						Out		No															100			86	*

Total:							92.7	%	5.4	%	10	5	25	5	22	4	15	7	3	2	1	1	0	0			874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.1
Sharks 4 Coyotes 3 (so)	+0.1
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Avalanche vs Canucks	+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Blues vs Sharks	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

123	-143						100
122		37	8		-	5	99				1
121		37	9		-	4	99				1
120		36	9		-	5	99				1
119		36	10		-	4	97	1	1		1
118		35	10		-	5	96	1	1		2
117		35	11		-	4	94	1	1		4
116		34	11		-	5	90	2	2		6
115		34	12		-	4	86	3	3		7				0
114		33	12		-	5	81	5	4		11
113		32	12		-	6	74	8	5		14	0			0
112		32	13		-	5	64	10	7	0	18	0	0		0
111		31	13		-	6	56	13	8	0	22	0	0		0
110		31	14		-	5	44	16	11	0	28	0	0		1				0
109		30	14		-	6	33	19	12	0	34	1	0		1				0
108		30	15		-	5	23	20	13	1	39	2	0		2	0			0
107		29	15		-	6	15	20	14	1	43	3	0		4	0			0
106		29	16		-	5	8	18	13	2	45	7	1		6	0			0
105		28	16		-	6	4	15	12	3	44	11	1		10	0			0
104		28	17		-	5	2	11	9	4	38	18	2	0	14	1	0		1		0
103		27	17		-	6	1	8	7	5	30	25	4	0	18	2	0		1	0	0
102		27	18		-	5	0	5	4	6	20	31	5	0	22	4	0		2	0	0
101		26	18		-	6	0	2	2	5	12	33	7	1	24	8	0		4	0	0
100		26	19		-	5	0	1	1	4	5	32	8	2	24	15	1	0	7	1	0	0	0
99		25	19		-	6		0	0	3	2	26	8	4	19	24	1	0	10	2	1	0	0	0
98		25	20		-	5		0	0	2	0	18	6	7	13	32	2	0	13	4	1	0	0	0
97		24	20		-	6		0	0	1	0	12	4	8	7	37	4	1	14	9	3	0	0		0
96		24	21		-	5		0	0	1	0	7	2	9	3	37	5	2	13	17	4	1	0	0
95		23	21		-	6		0		0		3	1	8	1	32	5	4	10	27	6	3	1	0	0
94		23	22		-	5				0		1	0	5	0	24	4	7	5	35	7	7	1	0	0	0	0
93		22	22		-	6				0		1	0	4	0	17	3	10	2	39	6	15	2	1	0	0	0
92		22	23		-	5				0		0	0	2		10	1	11	1	38	4	24	4	3	1	0	0	0
91		21	23		-	6						0		1		5	1	10	0	34	2	32	4	5	4	2	1	0	0
90		21	24		-	5						0	0	1		2	0	8	0	26	0	36	3	6	8	6	3	1	0	0
89		20	24		-	6								0		1	0	5		17	0	35	1	5	9	12	9	4	1	0	0
88		20	25		-	5								0		0	0	3		11	0	30	0	2	7	13	16	11	5	1	0	0
87		19	25		-	6								0		0		2		5		21	0	1	4	11	19	19	12	5	1	0	0
86		19	26		-	5								0		0		1		2		13		0	1	5	15	23	21	12	5	1	0	0
85		18	26		-	6												0		1		8			0	2	8	18	26	21	12	4	1	0	0
84		18	27		-	5								0				0		0		4			0	0	3	10	20	27	22	10	3	0	0
83		17	27		-	6												0		0		1				0	1	4	13	23	27	19	8	2	0
82		17	28		-	5														0		1					0	1	6	17	25	28	16	5	1
81		16	28		-	6																0						1	2	10	21	27	25	11	2	0
80		16	29		-	5																						0	1	3	11	27	31	20	5	0
79		16	30		-	4																							0	1	7	18	36	28	9	1
78		15	30		-	5																								1	2	11	29	31	22	4
77		15	31		-	4																								1	0	6	19	41	26	7
76		13	30		-	7																									1		10	37	42	11
75		14	32		-	4																										2	6	30	45	17
74		14	33		-	3																											6	24	52	18
73		13	33		-	4																												8	71	21
72		12	33		-	5																												20	53	27
71		12	34		-	4																													60	40
70		10	33		-	7																													33	67
43	-69																																			100

Total:							5	5	3	2	12	12	3	3	9	13	1	2	5	10	2	6	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0