Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Devils 3-2, playoff odds up 4.5 to 40.8%

38 points 18 14-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Senators 3	+4.9		+0.1		+0.4
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.6
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.4
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Canadiens	+5.0+5.1+4.6-0.8*-0.7-6.3		+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.2		+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
Capitals vs Bruins	+0.5-0.3+0.1*-0.3-0.9-0.3				+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0
Sabres vs Stars	-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.1*+0.2+0.6				-0.0-0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.4-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Panthers					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Senators finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-134						In		Yes		100																78	*
117		38	7		-	3	In		90.0	%	95		5														20	*
116		37	7		-	4	In		78.8		100																33	*
115		37	8		-	3	In		85.5		93	4	4														55	*
114		36	8		-	4	In		87.5		95	3	1														88	*
113		35	8		-	5	In		80.2		94	1	5														162	*
112		35	9		-	4	In		69.6		90	3	7														326	*
111		34	9		-	5	In		59.6		85	4	12														492	*
110		34	10		-	4	In		48.1		78	6	15		1												830	*
109		33	10		-	5	In		37.1		69	9	20		2												1,389	*
108		33	11		-	4	In		24.9		61	10	26	0	3		0										2,039	*
107		32	11		-	5	In		18.3		53	12	30	0	5		0										3,032	*
106		32	12		-	4	In		9.4		41	14	36	0	8		1										4,316	*
105		31	12		-	5	In		5.0		29	16	41	1	12	0	1	0									6,296	*
104		31	13		-	4	In		2.2		21	15	41	2	18	0	3	0									8,576	*
103		30	13		-	5	In		0.6		13	14	40	3	24	0	5	1									11,391	*
102		30	14		-	4	100.0	%	0.1		7	11	36	5	30	0	9	1	0								14,765	*
101		29	14		-	5	99.9		0.0		3	9	28	8	34	1	14	2	0	0							19,001	*
100		29	15		-	4	99.6		0.0		2	6	20	9	36	2	21	5	0	0							23,283	*
99		28	15		-	5	99.0		No		0	3	12	9	35	4	27	9	1	0							28,266	*
98		27	15		-	6	97.5		No		0	2	7	8	29	5	33	14	2	0	0						33,500	*
97		27	16		-	5	94.3		No		0	1	3	6	21	7	36	21	5	0	0						38,265	*
96		26	16		-	6	88.3		No		0	0	1	4	13	8	34	29	10	2	0	0					42,933	*
95		26	17		-	5	78.7		No			0	0	2	7	8	28	34	17	4	0	0					47,089	*
94		25	17		-	6	64.6		No			0	0	1	3	6	20	35	25	8	1	0	0				49,947	*
93		25	18		-	5	47.5		No			0	0	0	1	4	12	30	32	16	4	1	0				52,756	*
92		24	18		-	6	30.6		No			0		0	0	2	6	22	33	24	10	2	0	0			53,640	*
91		24	19		-	5	16.5		No					0	0	1	2	13	28	30	18	6	1	0	0		53,450	*
90		23	19		-	6	7.8		No					0	0	0	1	7	20	31	25	12	3	0	0		51,621	*
89		23	20		-	5	3.1		No					0		0	0	3	12	25	30	21	8	1	0		48,906	*
88		22	20		-	6	1.0		No							0	0	1	6	17	30	28	14	3	0		45,765	*
87		22	21		-	5	0.3		No							0	0	0	2	10	24	33	23	7	1	0	41,544	*
86		21	21		-	6	0.1		No							0		0	1	5	17	31	31	14	2	0	37,086	*
85		21	22		-	5	0.0		No								0	0	0	2	10	26	36	22	5	0	32,282	*
84		20	22		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	5	19	35	31	9	0	27,164	*
83		20	23		-	5	Out		No										0	0	2	12	32	37	16	1	22,286	*
82		19	23		-	6	Out		No										0	0	1	7	25	42	24	1	18,226	*
81		19	24		-	5	Out		No											0	0	3	18	42	33	3	14,048	*
80		18	24		-	6	Out		No												0	2	12	39	42	5	11,191	*
79		18	25		-	5	Out		No												0	1	8	33	50	8	8,332	*
78		17	25		-	6	Out		No													0	4	28	56	12	6,142	*
77		17	26		-	5	Out		No													0	2	20	59	18	4,450	*
76		16	26		-	6	Out		No													0	1	14	61	24	3,073	*
75		16	27		-	5	Out		No														0	10	58	31	2,216	*
74		15	27		-	6	Out		No														0	8	55	37	1,456	*
73		15	28		-	5	Out		No														0	4	53	43	959	*
72		14	28		-	6	Out		No															2	45	53	596	*
71		14	29		-	5	Out		No																36	64	367	*
70		13	29		-	6	Out		No															2	32	65	231	*
69		13	30		-	5	Out		No															2	24	74	127	*
68		13	31		-	4	Out		No															1	25	73	75	*
67		12	31		-	5	Out		No																14	86	37	*
66		11	31		-	6	Out		No																8	92	26	*
65		11	32		-	5	Out		No																22	78	9	*
64		10	32		-	6	Out		No																11	89	9	*
38	-63						Out		No																	100	78	*

Total:							40.8	%	0.4	%	2	1	4	2	7	2	10	12	11	10	9	9	8	7	4	1	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils 2 Senators 3	-0.8
Ducks 1 Red Wings 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.8-0.8-0.7+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Sabres vs Stars	+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0-0.1
Maple Leafs vs Panthers	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0
Capitals vs Bruins	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0
Blues vs Sharks	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

118	-134						100
117		38	7		-	3	90	5			5
116		37	7		-	4	79	21
115		37	8		-	3	85	7	4		4
114		36	8		-	4	88	8	3		1
113		35	8		-	5	80	14	1		5
112		35	9		-	4	70	21	3		7
111		34	9		-	5	60	25	4		12
110		34	10		-	4	48	30	6	0	15	0			1
109		33	10		-	5	37	32	8	1	20	0			2
108		33	11		-	4	25	36	10	0	25	1	0		3				0
107		32	11		-	5	18	34	10	2	28	2	0		5	0			0
106		32	12		-	4	9	31	12	2	33	4	0		8	0			1
105		31	12		-	5	5	24	12	4	34	7	1		12	0	0		1		0
104		31	13		-	4	2	19	10	5	31	11	2	0	18	0	0		3		0
103		30	13		-	5	1	12	8	5	26	14	3	0	23	1	0		5	0	1
102		30	14		-	4	0	7	5	6	19	17	5	0	28	2	0		9	0	1		0
101		29	14		-	5	0	3	3	6	11	18	7	0	30	4	1		14	0	2		0	0
100		29	15		-	4	0	2	2	4	5	15	8	1	29	7	2		20	0	5	0	0	0
99		28	15		-	5		0	1	3	2	10	8	2	24	10	4	0	26	1	9		1	0
98		27	15		-	6		0	0	2	1	6	6	2	16	12	5	0	30	2	14	0	2	0	0
97		27	16		-	5		0	0	1	0	2	3	2	9	12	7	0	31	4	21	0	5	0	0
96		26	16		-	6		0	0	0	0	1	2	2	4	9	8	0	27	7	28	1	10	2	0	0
95		26	17		-	5				0	0	0	1	1	1	6	7	1	19	9	32	1	17	4	0	0
94		25	17		-	6				0		0	0	1	0	3	5	1	11	10	32	3	25	9	2	0	0
93		25	18		-	5				0		0	0	0	0	1	3	1	5	8	25	5	31	16	4	1	0
92		24	18		-	6				0			0	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	15	7	32	24	10	3	0	0
91		24	19		-	5								0		0	0	1	0	2	7	6	25	30	19	7	1	0	0
90		23	19		-	6								0		0	0	0	0	1	2	4	15	29	27	15	5	1	0	0
89		23	20		-	5								0			0	0	0	0	0	2	7	19	29	25	12	3	1	0
88		22	20		-	6											0	0		0	0	1	2	10	22	29	22	10	3	1	0
87		22	21		-	5												0		0	0	0	1	4	12	24	28	20	9	3	1	0	0
86		21	21		-	6												0				0	0	1	4	14	24	27	19	8	3	1	0	0
85		21	22		-	5														0		0	0	0	1	6	14	25	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
84		20	22		-	6												0				0		0	0	2	7	16	25	25	16	7	2	0	0
83		20	23		-	5																			0	0	2	8	18	26	25	15	5	1	0	0
82		19	23		-	6																				0	0	3	9	20	28	23	12	3	0	0
81		19	24		-	5																					0	1	4	13	23	30	20	8	1	0
80		18	24		-	6																						0	1	6	17	28	29	15	3	0
79		18	25		-	5																						0	0	3	9	22	31	25	8	1
78		17	25		-	6																						0	0	1	5	15	31	32	15	2
77		17	26		-	5																							0	0	2	8	25	37	23	5
76		16	26		-	6																									0	5	16	36	34	8
75		16	27		-	5																								0	0	2	11	32	40	15
74		15	27		-	6																									0	1	6	27	45	20
73		15	28		-	5																									0	0	3	20	48	28
72		14	28		-	6																											2	13	48	38
71		14	29		-	5																											1	5	41	54
70		13	29		-	6																											1	10	36	53
69		13	30		-	5																												4	28	69
68		13	31		-	4																											1	1	27	71
67		12	31		-	5																													19	81
66		11	31		-	6																													8	92
65		11	32		-	5																													22	78
64		10	32		-	6																													11	89
38	-63																																			100

Total:							0	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	5	3	2	0	8	3	10	2	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0