New Jersey Devils Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Lost to Senators 2-3, playoff odds down 2.5 to 89.5%

47 points 21 8-5

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Senators 3	-2.5		-2.9		-0.4
Islanders 3 Capitals 4 (so)	-0.3				-0.1
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	+0.3		-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Canadiens	-0.1-0.2-0.4+0.0-0.0+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	-0.2+0.0-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.3		+0.2-0.0+0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2
Capitals vs Bruins					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sabres vs Stars			-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.2-0.2+0.2
Avalanche vs Canucks			+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.2+0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Devils finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

121	-143						In		99.2	%	100																722	*
120		34	9		-	5	In		97.3		100	0															514	*
119		34	10		-	4	In		97.3		100	0	0														817	*
118		33	10		-	5	In		95.4		99	1															1,325	*
117		33	11		-	4	In		93.1		99	1	0														1,963	*
116		32	11		-	5	In		91.2		98	2	0														3,052	*
115		32	12		-	4	In		85.8		97	3	0														4,266	*
114		31	12		-	5	In		80.8		96	4	0														6,027	*
113		31	13		-	4	In		73.2		94	6	0														8,411	*
112		30	13		-	5	In		66.4		90	9	1														11,380	*
111		30	14		-	4	In		56.1		87	12	1	0	0												14,636	*
110		29	14		-	5	In		45.2		80	18	2	0	0												18,877	*
109		29	15		-	4	In		34.4		73	24	3	0	0												23,592	*
108		28	15		-	5	In		24.5		65	31	4	0	0												28,291	*
107		27	15		-	6	In		15.7		55	38	6	0	0												33,242	*
106		27	16		-	5	In		9.0		44	46	9	1	0	0											38,027	*
105		26	16		-	6	In		4.4		33	52	12	2	1	0	0										43,189	*
104		26	17		-	5	In		1.8		24	57	14	4	1	0	0										47,423	*
103		25	17		-	6	In		0.7		15	59	16	8	2	0	0										50,469	*
102		25	18		-	5	In		0.1		9	57	16	14	4	0	0	0									52,710	*
101		24	18		-	6	100.0	%	0.0		4	52	15	21	6	1	0	0	0								53,826	*
100		24	19		-	5	100.0		0.0		2	46	12	29	8	3	1	0	0								53,706	*
99		23	19		-	6	100.0		No		1	37	8	35	9	7	2	0	0	0							51,860	*
98		23	20		-	5	99.8		No		0	28	5	40	10	13	4	1	0	0	0						49,528	*
97		22	20		-	6	99.0		No		0	20	2	40	8	21	6	3	1	0	0	0					45,354	*
96		22	21		-	5	96.8		No		0	13	1	36	6	28	7	6	3	1	0	0					41,300	*
95		21	21		-	6	91.5		No		0	8	0	29	3	34	7	9	6	2	0	0	0				37,323	*
94		21	22		-	5	81.9		No			4	0	22	1	36	7	12	11	5	1	0	0				31,857	*
93		20	22		-	6	67.1		No			2	0	15	1	33	4	12	17	11	4	1	0	0			26,960	*
92		20	23		-	5	49.3		No			1		9	0	27	2	10	20	19	9	2	0	0			22,557	*
91		19	23		-	6	32.0		No			0		5	0	20	1	6	18	25	18	6	1	0	0		18,129	*
90		19	24		-	5	19.4		No			0		2		13	1	4	13	25	25	13	3	0	0		14,509	*
89		18	24		-	6	9.9		No			0		1		7	0	1	7	21	29	22	9	1	0		10,988	*
88		18	25		-	5	4.5		No					0		4	0	0	4	15	28	29	15	4	0		8,316	*
87		17	25		-	6	1.7		No			0		0		2		0	2	8	23	33	23	8	1		5,988	*
86		17	26		-	5	0.7		No					0		1		0	1	4	15	30	30	16	3	0	4,323	*
85		16	26		-	6	0.2		No							0		0	0	2	8	23	34	26	6	0	2,984	*
84		16	27		-	5	0.1		No					0		0				0	4	17	34	32	11	0	2,125	*
83		15	27		-	6	Out		No											0	2	11	28	39	19	1	1,388	*
82		15	28		-	5	Out		No												1	5	21	42	29	2	873	*
81		14	28		-	6	Out		No												0	2	16	38	40	3	581	*
80		14	29		-	5	Out		No												0	1	9	39	46	6	351	*
79		14	30		-	4	Out		No													1	7	32	54	7	198	*
78		14	31		-	3	Out		No														5	30	53	13	125	*
77		13	31		-	4	Out		No														3	13	64	20	87	*
76		12	31		-	5	Out		No														5	10	60	26	42	*
75		12	32		-	4	Out		No															5	65	30	20	*
74		11	32		-	5	Out		No																60	40	10	*
73		10	32		-	6	Out		No															20	80		5	*
47	-71						Out		No																	100	74	*

Total:							89.5	%	8.4	%	20	31	7	16	3	9	2	2	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	874,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils 2 Senators 3	+0.7
Islanders 3 Capitals 4 (so)	+0.1
Blackhawks 2 Blue Jackets 1	-0.1
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 1 (ot)	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Capitals vs Bruins	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sabres vs Stars	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0
Flyers vs Hurricanes	+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

125	-143						100
124		37	8		-	3	97	3
123		36	8		-	4	99	1
122		35	8		-	5	99	1
121		35	9		-	4	99	1
120		34	9		-	5	97	3	0
119		34	10		-	4	97	2	0		0
118		33	10		-	5	95	4	1
117		33	11		-	4	93	6	1		0
116		32	11		-	5	91	7	2		0
115		32	12		-	4	86	11	3		0
114		31	12		-	5	81	15	4		0
113		31	13		-	4	73	20	6	0	0
112		30	13		-	5	66	24	9	0	1
111		30	14		-	4	56	31	12	0	1	0	0		0
110		29	14		-	5	45	35	17	1	2	0	0		0
109		29	15		-	4	34	39	23	1	3	0	0		0
108		28	15		-	5	24	41	28	3	4	0	0		0
107		27	15		-	6	16	39	33	6	6	0	0		0
106		27	16		-	5	9	35	36	9	8	1	1		0		0
105		26	16		-	6	4	29	37	15	10	2	2	0	1	0	0		0
104		26	17		-	5	2	22	35	21	10	4	4	0	1	0	0		0
103		25	17		-	6	1	15	31	28	10	6	8	0	2	0	0		0
102		25	18		-	5	0	9	24	33	8	9	13	0	3	0	0		0		0
101		24	18		-	6	0	4	17	36	5	10	20	1	5	1	1		0	0	0		0
100		24	19		-	5	0	2	11	35	3	9	26	3	6	2	3	0	1	0	0		0
99		23	19		-	6		1	6	31	1	7	29	6	6	3	7	0	2	0	0		0	0
98		23	20		-	5		0	3	25	0	4	28	11	5	4	13	0	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
97		22	20		-	6		0	1	19	0	2	24	16	3	5	20	1	5	1	3	0	1	0	0	0
96		22	21		-	5		0	0	13	0	1	16	19	1	5	26	2	6	2	5	0	3	1	0	0
95		21	21		-	6		0	0	8		0	10	19	0	3	30	4	5	3	9	0	6	2	0	0	0
94		21	22		-	5			0	4		0	5	17	0	1	27	8	3	3	10	1	11	5	1	0	0
93		20	22		-	6			0	2		0	2	12	0	1	21	12	1	3	10	3	16	11	4	1	0	0
92		20	23		-	5				1			1	8	0	0	13	13	0	2	6	4	19	19	10	3	0	0
91		19	23		-	6				0			0	4		0	7	13	0	1	3	3	15	24	19	8	2	0	0
90		19	24		-	5				0			0	2			3	10	0	1	1	3	9	22	26	16	6	1	0	0
89		18	24		-	6				0			0	1			1	6		0	0	1	4	15	26	25	15	5	1	0
88		18	25		-	5								0			0	3		0	0	0	1	7	18	28	23	12	4	1	0	0
87		17	25		-	6				0				0			0	2				0	0	2	9	20	27	22	13	4	1	0	0
86		17	26		-	5								0				1				0	0	0	3	10	21	26	22	11	4	1	0	0
85		16	26		-	6												0				0		0	1	4	10	22	26	21	11	5	1	0	0
84		16	27		-	5								0				0							0	1	4	12	23	27	20	10	3	0
83		15	27		-	6																			0		1	6	13	24	27	19	8	2
82		15	28		-	5																					0	2	6	17	25	28	17	5	0
81		14	28		-	6																					0	0	2	8	18	30	27	11	3	0
80		14	29		-	5																					0		1	2	16	25	31	19	7
79		14	30		-	4																							1	2	7	19	33	29	10	1
78		14	31		-	3																									5	11	28	38	14	3
77		13	31		-	4																									2	3	23	33	31	7
76		12	31		-	5																										5	17	31	36	12
75		12	32		-	4																											5	30	45	20
74		11	32		-	5																												30	60	10
73		10	32		-	6																											20		80
47	-71																																			100

Total:							8	12	14	16	3	3	10	5	2	1	7	2	1	1	2	0	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0