New York Rangers Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Lost to New Jersey 2-4, playoff odds down 6.6 to 28.2%

6 points 2 5-2 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	-7.0		-0.5		-0.7
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	-6.7		-0.4		-0.7
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	-0.7
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	-0.4
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	*-0.4				-0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	*+0.1
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2	*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	+5.2+4.7+4.3-1.3-1.4-6.3		+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2		+0.6+0.5+0.5-0.1-0.1-0.7
Winnipeg vs Florida					+0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Rangers finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

71	-84								In		97.9	%	100															141	*
70		30	5		-	4	0		In		90.8		99	1														87	*
69		30	6		-	3	0		In		82.4		95	5														193	*
68		29	6		-	4	0		In		74.6		90	7		3												335	*
67		29	7		-	3	0		In		65.7		87	9	0	4												600	*
66		28	7		-	4	0		In		50.4		81	13	0	5	0											1,039	*
65		28	8		-	3	0		In		34.9		71	20	1	8	0											1,780	*
64		27	8		-	4	0		In		21.4		59	27	2	12	0											2,930	*
63		27	9		-	3	0		In		10.6		43	34	4	18	1	0										4,312	*
62		26	9		-	4	0		In		4.2		29	36	8	24	3	0										6,666	*
61		25	9		-	5	0		In		1.1		16	35	13	29	7	0	0									9,666	*
60		25	10		-	4	0		In		0.2		7	28	17	31	14	2	0									13,170	*
59		24	10		-	5	0		In		0.0		2	18	21	29	23	6	1	0								17,636	*
58		24	11		-	4	0		100.0	%	No		0	10	21	21	29	15	3	0	0							23,162	*
57		23	11		-	5	0		99.8		No		0	4	18	11	29	25	10	2	0	0						29,158	*
56		23	12		-	4	0		98.5		No		0	1	13	4	19	31	22	8	1	0	0					35,593	*
55		22	12		-	5	0		91.6		No			0	8	1	7	23	32	21	7	1	0					20,614	*
		23	13		-	3	0		91.7		No			0	8	1	8	23	31	21	7	1	0	0				21,532	*
54		22	13		-	4	0		72.1		No			0	4	0	2	10	26	31	20	7	1	0	0			48,115	*
53		21	13		-	5	0		38.1		No				2	0	0	2	10	25	32	21	7	1	0	0		33,387	*
		22	14		-	3	0		50.6		No			0	2	0	0	3	15	30	29	16	4	1	0			20,162	*
52		21	14		-	4	0		18.0		No				1		0	0	3	14	29	31	17	5	1	0		21,964
		20	13		-	6	0		15.6		No				1		0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0		35,688	*
51		20	14		-	5	0		4.2		No				0			0	0	3	14	29	31	17	5	1	0	22,720
		21	15		-	3	0		6.0		No				0			0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0		18,485
		19	13		-	7	0		3.6		No				0			0	0	3	12	27	31	20	6	1	0	19,709	*
50		20	15		-	4	0		0.8		No				0			0	0	1	5	19	31	29	13	2	0	23,435
		19	14		-	6	0		0.6		No				0				0	0	4	15	31	31	16	3	0	18,507
		21	16		-	2	0		1.0		No				0				0	1	5	17	30	29	15	3	0	19,887	*
49		19	15		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	6	20	33	28	10	1	34,876	*
		20	16		-	3	0		0.2		No				0					0	1	8	22	34	25	8	1	26,109	*
48		19	16		-	4	0		0.0		No				0				0	0	0	2	11	28	35	20	4	39,042	*
		18	15		-	6	0		Out		No										0	1	9	25	37	23	5	19,841	*
47		18	16		-	5	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	0	4	17	35	33	11	55,279	*
46		18	17		-	4	0		Out		No											0	1	9	29	41	20	18,780
		17	16		-	6	0		Out		No											0	1	8	27	42	22	30,818	*
45		17	17		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	3	18	44	34	43,683	*
44		17	18		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	1	11	40	48	37,871	*
43		16	18		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	5	33	61	31,346	*
42		16	19		-	4	0		Out		No													0	2	24	73	25,452	*
41		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No													0	1	17	82	19,804	*
40		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No														0	11	88	15,280	*
39		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No														0	7	93	11,317	*
38		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No														0	5	95	8,155	*
37		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No															3	97	5,743	*
36		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No														0	2	98	3,812	*
35		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	2,482	*
34		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	1,642	*
33		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	1,087	*
6	-32								Out		No																100	1,408	*

Total:									28.2	%	0.4	%	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	11	13	17	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	+1.4
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+1.4
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	*+0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	*+0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	*+0.0
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-0.0
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	-0.0
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	*-0.0
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	-0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*-0.0
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	-1.1-1.0-0.9+0.3+0.3+1.4
Philadelphia vs Florida	+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1-0.0
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

72	-84								100
71		30	4		-	5	0		92	8
70		30	5		-	4	0		91	8	1
69		30	6		-	3	0		82	12	5
68		29	6		-	4	0		75	16	7				3
67		29	7		-	3	0		66	21	9	0	0		4
66		28	7		-	4	0		50	31	13	0	0		5	0	0
65		28	8		-	3	0		35	36	18	2	1		8	0	0
64		27	8		-	4	0		21	38	23	3	2	0	11	1	0
63		27	9		-	3	0		11	33	26	8	4	0	16	2	1		0
62		26	9		-	4	0		4	24	22	14	8	0	19	5	3	0	0
61		25	9		-	5	0		1	15	15	19	12	1	18	10	7	0	0		0
60		25	10		-	4	0		0	7	8	20	13	4	15	16	12	2	2	0	0
59		24	10		-	5	0		0	2	3	16	14	8	9	20	16	6	5	0	1		0
58		24	11		-	4	0			0	1	9	10	11	3	18	15	14	12	2	3	0	0		0
57		23	11		-	5	0			0	0	4	6	12	1	11	8	21	16	9	9	1	2	0	0	0
56		23	12		-	4	0			0	0	1	3	10	0	4	2	17	12	19	16	6	7	1	1	0	0
55		22	12		-	5	0				0	0	1	7	0	1	0	7	4	19	14	17	16	5	7	2	0	0	0
54		22	13		-	4	0					0	0	4		0	0	2	0	9	5	20	15	16	15	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
53		21	13		-	5	0						0	2		0		0	0	2	0	9	5	20	16	20	15	8	3	1	0	0
		22	14		-	3	0					0	0	2		0		0	0	3	1	13	8	22	16	17	10	5	1	0	0	0
52		21	14		-	4	0						0	1				0		0	0	3	1	12	8	17	22	18	11	5	2	0	0
		20	13		-	6	0						0	1				0		0	0	3	1	11	7	16	21	19	13	6	2	1	0	0
51		20	14		-	5	0						0	0						0		0	0	3	1	5	12	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0
		21	15		-	3	0							0						0		1	0	5	2	7	15	21	21	16	9	3	1	0	0
50		20	15		-	4	0							0						0		0		1	0	1	4	10	17	23	21	14	6	2	0	0		0
		19	14		-	6	0							0								0		1	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
49		19	15		-	5	0							0								0		0		0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
		20	16		-	3	0							0										0		0	1	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0
48		19	16		-	4	0							0								0		0		0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0
		18	15		-	6	0																			0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	24	14	6	1	0
47		18	16		-	5	0							0										0				0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	5	1
46		18	17		-	4	0																							0	1	3	9	19	28	24	12	2
		17	16		-	6	0																							0	0	2	8	19	28	26	14	3
45		17	17		-	5	0																							0	0	1	3	11	23	31	24	7
		18	18		-	3	0																								0	1	3	10	22	32	25	8
44		17	18		-	4	0																								0	0	1	4	14	30	35	17
43		16	18		-	5	0																									0	0	1	7	23	40	29
42		16	19		-	4	0																										0	0	3	14	39	44
41		15	19		-	5	0																											0	1	8	34	57
40		15	20		-	4	0																											0	0	4	26	70
39		14	20		-	5	0																												0	2	19	79
38		14	21		-	4	0																												0	1	13	86
37		13	21		-	5	0																												0	0	9	91
36		13	22		-	4	0																													0	5	94
35		12	22		-	5	0																														4	96
34		12	23		-	4	0																													0	2	98
33		11	23		-	5	0																														2	98
32		11	24		-	4	0																														0	100
6	-31																																					100

Total:									0	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	2	2	3	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	8	9