Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Beat Detroit 5-2, playoff odds up 5.6 to 42%

6 points 3 4-0 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	+5.5		+0.4		+0.6
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+5.1		+0.3		+0.5
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	*-0.4				-0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	*-0.2				-0.0
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	*+0.1
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3	*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Columbus vs Calgary	-7.1-1.5-1.7+4.4+5.6+6.0		-0.6-0.3-0.3+0.4+0.4+0.5		-0.7-0.1-0.2+0.5+0.6+0.6
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.6-0.3+0.3
Edmonton vs Dallas					-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs Vancouver					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

74	-88								In		Yes		100															141	*
73		32	6		-	3	0		In		98.7	%	99	1														78	*
72		31	6		-	4	0		In		98.6		99	1														139	*
71		30	6		-	5	0		In		94.3		96	4		0												279	*
70		30	7		-	4	0		In		91.7		96	3		1												520	*
69		30	8		-	3	0		In		83.4		92	7		1												862	*
68		29	8		-	4	0		In		76.0		88	11		1												1,439	*
67		29	9		-	3	0		In		66.7		82	16	0	1												2,415	*
66		28	9		-	4	0		In		51.5		73	23	1	2												3,719	*
65		27	9		-	5	0		In		36.9		62	31	3	4	0											5,522	*
64		27	10		-	4	0		In		23.2		50	38	5	7	0	0										7,950	*
63		26	10		-	5	0		In		12.1		36	44	8	11	1	0										11,079	*
62		26	11		-	4	0		In		4.5		22	45	15	14	2	0										14,962	*
61		25	11		-	5	0		In		1.2		12	42	23	18	5	0	0									19,678	*
60		25	12		-	4	0		In		0.2		5	31	30	21	11	2	0									24,916	*
59		24	12		-	5	0		In		0.0		1	20	35	19	18	6	1	0								30,865	*
58		24	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	No		0	10	35	14	23	14	3	0	0							37,052	*
57		23	13		-	5	0		99.7		No		0	4	31	7	22	23	11	2	0	0						43,017	*
56		23	14		-	4	0		97.9		No		0	1	23	2	14	26	22	9	2	0	0					48,637	*
55		22	14		-	5	0		90.7		No			0	16	1	5	18	29	22	8	1	0	0				20,396
		23	15		-	3	0		89.8		No			0	16	1	5	19	27	21	8	2	0	0				33,736	*
54		22	15		-	4	0		70.4		No			0	10	0	1	8	22	29	21	7	1	0	0			57,151	*
53		21	15		-	5	0		42.3		No			0	5		0	2	10	25	31	20	6	1	0			22,231
		22	16		-	3	0		41.5		No				5	0	0	2	10	24	31	20	7	1	0			37,177	*
52		21	16		-	4	0		20.9		No				3		0	0	3	14	29	30	16	4	0	0		30,568	*
		20	15		-	6	0		13.7		No				2			0	2	10	24	32	21	7	1	0	0	29,668	*
51		20	16		-	5	0		5.1		No				1		0	0	0	3	15	29	31	16	4	0	0	22,107
		21	17		-	3	0		5.2		No				1			0	0	4	14	29	30	17	4	0	0	37,014	*
50		20	17		-	4	0		1.1		No				0				0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0	30,530	*
		19	16		-	6	0		1.2		No				0			0	0	1	5	18	32	29	13	2	0	26,189	*
49		19	17		-	5	0		0.2		No				0					0	1	7	22	34	26	8	1	53,087	*
48		19	18		-	4	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	29	36	19	3	25,983	*
		18	17		-	6	0		0.1		No				0					0	0	2	12	30	35	18	3	22,032	*
47		18	18		-	5	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	4	19	36	31	9	42,123	*
46		18	19		-	4	0		Out		No											0	1	9	30	41	18	36,378	*
45		17	19		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	0	4	21	44	30	30,253	*
44		17	20		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	13	42	43	24,316	*
43		16	20		-	5	0		Out		No													1	7	36	56	19,421	*
42		16	21		-	4	0		Out		No													0	4	28	68	15,026	*
41		15	21		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	1	21	78	11,140	*
40		15	22		-	4	0		Out		No														1	15	85	8,009	*
39		14	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	10	90	5,769	*
38		14	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	6	94	3,834	*
37		13	23		-	5	0		Out		No															4	96	2,629	*
36		13	24		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	1,739	*
35		12	24		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	1,084	*
34		12	25		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	670	*
33		11	25		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	385	*
32		11	26		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	242	*
6	-31								Out		No																100	343	*

Total:									42.0	%	1.4	%	3	5	9	3	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-1.2
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	-1.1
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+0.0
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3	*-0.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Columbus vs Calgary	+1.5+0.3+0.3-0.9-1.2-1.2
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

74	-88								100
73		32	6		-	3	0		99		1
72		31	6		-	4	0		99	1	1
71		30	6		-	5	0		94	1	4				0
70		30	7		-	4	0		92	4	3				1
69		30	8		-	3	0		83	9	7				1
68		29	8		-	4	0		76	12	11				1
67		29	9		-	3	0		67	15	16	0	0		1
66		28	9		-	4	0		51	22	23	1	1		2
65		27	9		-	5	0		37	25	29	2	3		4	0	0
64		27	10		-	4	0		23	26	35	4	5	0	7	0	0		0
63		26	10		-	5	0		12	24	36	8	8	0	10	1	1		0
62		26	11		-	4	0		5	18	31	14	15	0	12	2	2	0	0
61		25	11		-	5	0		1	10	22	20	21	2	14	5	5	0	0		0
60		25	12		-	4	0		0	5	11	20	25	5	12	8	10	1	2	0	0
59		24	12		-	5	0		0	1	4	16	25	11	8	11	14	3	6	0	1		0
58		24	13		-	4	0			0	1	10	19	16	3	10	15	8	12	1	3	0	0		0
57		23	13		-	5	0			0	0	4	12	19	1	7	9	13	17	6	10	1	2	0	0	0
56		23	14		-	4	0			0	0	1	6	18	0	2	3	11	14	12	18	4	9	0	2	0	0
55		22	14		-	5	0					0	2	14	0	1	0	5	5	14	16	12	18	3	8	2	0	0	0
54		22	15		-	4	0					0	1	10		0	0	2	1	8	7	16	19	11	16	7	2	0	0
		21	14		-	6	0					0	1	9		0	0	1	1	7	6	15	18	12	19	10	3	1	0	0	0
53		21	15		-	5	0					0	0	5				0	0	2	1	9	8	17	20	20	12	5	1	0	0
		22	16		-	3	0						0	5		0		0	0	2	1	9	8	16	19	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
52		21	16		-	4	0						0	3				0		0	0	3	2	12	11	20	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
		20	15		-	6	0						0	2						0	0	2	1	9	8	17	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
51		20	16		-	5	0						0	1				0		0	0	0	0	3	2	7	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
		21	17		-	3	0						0	1						0		0	0	4	2	7	15	21	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
50		20	17		-	4	0							0								0	0	1	0	1	4	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
		19	16		-	6	0							0						0		0		1	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	12	6	2	0	0
49		19	17		-	5	0							0										0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	23	16	8	2	0	0	0
		18	16		-	7	0							0										0		0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	10	4	1	0	0
48		19	18		-	4	0							0										0		0	0	0	2	5	12	21	24	20	11	4	1	0
47		18	18		-	5	0							0														0	0	1	4	11	20	26	22	12	4	0
46		18	19		-	4	0																						0	0	1	3	10	21	28	24	11	2
45		17	19		-	5	0																						0	0	0	1	4	12	24	31	21	7
44		17	20		-	4	0																								0	0	1	5	16	31	33	15
43		16	20		-	5	0																									0	0	1	8	24	40	26
42		16	21		-	4	0																										0	0	3	16	39	41
41		15	21		-	5	0																											0	1	9	35	55
40		15	22		-	4	0																											0	0	4	28	67
39		14	22		-	5	0																												0	2	21	77
38		14	23		-	4	0																													1	14	85
37		13	23		-	5	0																													0	10	90
36		13	24		-	4	0																														5	95
35		12	24		-	5	0																														3	97
34		12	25		-	4	0																														1	99
33		11	25		-	5	0																														2	98
32		11	26		-	4	0																														1	99
6	-31																																					100

Total:									1	2	3	3	4	5	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5