SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Lost to Washington 2-3 (so), playoff odds down 1 to 46.4%

10 points 4 4-2 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	+6.0		+0.5		+0.6
Toronto 4 Boston 2	+5.8		+0.3		+0.6
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	-1.6		-0.1		-0.2
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	*+0.1				+0.0
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	*+0.1
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	*+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3					*+0.0
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)					*-0.0
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-7.5-1.6-1.6+5.2+5.7+6.2		-0.6*-0.1-0.3+0.3+0.5+0.5		-0.7-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.6+0.6
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0-0.4-0.7-0.0-0.3+0.3				-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.6+0.2				-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0+0.0
Buffalo vs Montreal					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Montreal vs Boston					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida					-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

72	-86								In		Yes		100															337	*
71		29	6		-	3	0		In		95.2	%	99	1														270	*
70		28	6		-	4	0		In		90.2		96	3		1												509	*
69		28	7		-	3	0		In		84.7		96	3		1												918	*
68		27	7		-	4	0		In		75.7		92	5	0	3	0											1,512	*
67		27	8		-	3	0		In		64.0		88	7	0	5												2,567	*
66		26	8		-	4	0		In		51.6		80	12	0	7	0											3,903	*
65		26	9		-	3	0		In		36.0		70	17	1	11	1											6,040	*
64		25	9		-	4	0		In		21.6		58	23	2	16	1	0										8,800	*
63		25	10		-	3	0		In		10.9		43	30	3	22	2	0										12,291	*
62		24	10		-	4	0		In		4.0		29	33	6	28	4	0	0									16,937	*
61		23	10		-	5	0		In		1.2		16	30	10	34	9	1	0									21,937	*
60		23	11		-	4	0		In		0.1		7	25	14	36	16	2	0	0								27,746	*
59		22	11		-	5	0		In		0.0		2	16	16	31	26	7	1	0								34,256	*
58		22	12		-	4	0		100.0	%	No		0	8	16	23	33	16	3	0	0							41,111	*
57		21	12		-	5	0		99.8		No		0	3	13	13	31	27	10	2	0							21,621	*
		22	13		-	3	0		99.8		No		0	3	13	12	31	28	11	2	0	0						26,075	*
56		21	13		-	4	0		98.9		No		0	1	9	5	23	33	21	7	1	0	0					31,652	*
		20	12		-	6	0		97.8		No		0	1	8	3	17	33	26	10	2	0						21,932	*
55		20	13		-	5	0		90.4		No			0	4	1	7	23	33	23	8	1	0	0				32,041	*
		21	14		-	3	0		93.2		No			0	6	1	10	26	31	19	6	1	0					26,207	*
54		20	14		-	4	0		72.9		No			0	2	0	2	11	26	32	20	6	1	0				41,352	*
		21	15		-	2	0		74.2		No			0	3	0	2	12	27	30	19	6	1	0	0			19,845	*
53		19	14		-	5	0		42.9		No				1	0	0	3	12	28	32	19	6	1	0	0		23,480
		20	15		-	3	0		44.7		No				1	0	0	3	13	28	31	18	6	1	0			39,263	*
52		19	15		-	4	0		19.4		No			0	0		0	0	4	15	30	30	16	4	0	0		24,164
		18	14		-	6	0		17.0		No				0		0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0		38,132	*
51		18	15		-	5	0		4.6		No				0		0	0	0	4	15	30	31	16	4	0	0	22,298
		19	16		-	3	0		5.3		No				0			0	1	5	16	30	30	15	4	0	0	37,783	*
50		18	16		-	4	0		0.9		No				0		0	0	0	1	6	20	33	27	11	2	0	21,837
		17	15		-	6	0		1.0		No				0			0	0	1	5	18	32	29	13	3	0	34,267	*
49		17	16		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	7	20	34	27	10	1	31,354	*
		18	17		-	3	0		0.3		No				0				0	0	2	10	26	35	22	6	1	19,171	*
48		17	17		-	4	0		0.0		No									0	0	3	13	30	34	18	3	17,509
		16	16		-	6	0		0.0		No								0	0	0	2	11	29	35	19	3	27,472	*
47		16	17		-	5	0		Out		No										0	1	5	19	36	30	9	38,790	*
46		16	18		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	1	10	31	40	18	31,710	*
45		15	18		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	4	21	44	30	25,987	*
44		15	19		-	4	0		Out		No												0	2	13	42	44	20,267	*
43		14	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	0	7	36	57	15,396	*
42		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No													0	3	27	70	11,335	*
41		13	20		-	5	0		Out		No													0	2	21	77	8,294	*
40		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No														1	14	86	5,737	*
39		12	21		-	5	0		Out		No														0	9	90	3,863	*
38		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No															6	94	2,654	*
37		11	22		-	5	0		Out		No															3	97	1,607	*
36		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	923	*
35		11	24		-	3	0		Out		No															1	99	570	*
34		10	24		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	322	*
10	-33								Out		No																100	456	*

Total:									46.4	%	1.4	%	4	4	4	6	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-1.2
Toronto 4 Boston 2	-1.2
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.3
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	-0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	*-0.0
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	*-0.0
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+1.5+0.3+0.3-1.0-1.1-1.2
Montreal vs Boston	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

72	-86								100
71		29	6		-	3	0		95	4	1
70		28	6		-	4	0		90	6	3				1
69		28	7		-	3	0		85	11	3				1
68		27	7		-	4	0		76	16	5	0	0		3		0
67		27	8		-	3	0		64	24	7	0	0		5	0
66		26	8		-	4	0		52	29	12	0	0		7	0	0
65		26	9		-	3	0		36	34	16	1	1	0	11	0	1
64		25	9		-	4	0		22	37	20	3	2	0	15	1	1		0
63		25	10		-	3	0		11	32	22	7	3	0	19	3	2	0	0
62		24	10		-	4	0		4	25	20	13	6	0	22	6	4	0	0		0
61		23	10		-	5	0		1	15	14	17	9	1	22	12	9	1	1	0	0
60		23	11		-	4	0		0	7	7	18	11	3	17	18	14	2	2	0	0		0
59		22	11		-	5	0		0	2	3	14	11	5	10	22	19	7	7	0	1	0	0
58		22	12		-	4	0			0	1	7	8	8	4	19	17	16	14	3	3	0	0		0
57		21	12		-	5	0			0	0	3	5	8	1	12	9	22	18	10	9	1	2	0	0
		22	13		-	3	0			0	0	3	4	8	1	11	9	22	18	10	10	1	2	0	0	0
56		21	13		-	4	0			0	0	1	2	7	0	5	3	20	14	19	16	5	6	0	1	0	0
		20	12		-	6	0			0		1	1	6	0	3	2	16	12	21	18	8	10	1	2	0	0
55		20	13		-	5	0					0	0	4		1	0	7	4	19	15	18	17	6	8	2	0	0	0
		21	14		-	3	0					0	1	5		1	0	10	5	22	15	16	14	4	5	1	0		0
54		20	14		-	4	0					0	0	3		0	0	2	1	12	6	22	16	15	14	6	2	0	0	0
		19	13		-	6	0					0	0	2		0	0	1	0	8	4	19	15	17	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
53		19	14		-	5	0						0	1		0		0	0	2	1	10	6	20	16	20	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
		20	15		-	3	0						0	1		0		0	0	4	1	15	8	22	17	16	10	4	1	0	0
52		19	15		-	4	0					0	0	0				0		0	0	4	1	13	8	17	21	18	10	4	1	0	0
		18	14		-	6	0							0				0		0	0	3	1	12	7	16	21	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
51		18	15		-	5	0							0				0		0		0	0	4	1	6	14	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
		19	16		-	3	0							0						0	0	1	0	5	2	8	16	22	21	14	8	3	1	0	0
		17	14		-	7	0						0	0						0		0	0	3	1	5	12	19	22	18	11	5	2	0	0
50		18	16		-	4	0							0				0		0		0		1	0	1	4	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
		17	15		-	6	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	7	2	0	0	0
49		17	16		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	3	1	0	0
48		17	17		-	4	0															0		0			0	0	1	5	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0
47		16	17		-	5	0																				0	0	0	1	3	10	20	26	23	13	4	1
46		16	18		-	4	0																						0	0	1	3	10	20	28	24	11	2
45		15	18		-	5	0																							0	0	1	4	11	24	31	23	7
44		15	19		-	4	0																								0	0	1	5	15	31	33	15
43		14	19		-	5	0																									0	0	2	8	24	40	27
42		14	20		-	4	0																										0	0	3	15	40	41
41		13	20		-	5	0																										0	0	1	9	36	54
40		13	21		-	4	0																											0	0	5	28	67
39		12	21		-	5	0																												0	2	21	76
38		12	22		-	4	0																												0	1	14	85
37		11	22		-	5	0																													0	10	90
36		11	23		-	4	0																												0	0	7	93
35		11	24		-	3	0																														4	96
34		10	24		-	4	0																														3	97
33		9	24		-	5	0																														1	99
10	-32																																					100

Total:									1	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3