SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

What might
today bring

Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Beat Toronto 3-2 (so), playoff odds up 4.3 to 32.4%

8 points 4 6-0 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+4.7		+0.1		+0.5
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	+4.0		+0.1		+0.4
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	*-0.3
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	*+0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	*-0.1
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5					-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-6.7-1.6-1.6+4.4+5.4+5.6		-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2		-0.7-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.6+0.6
Montreal vs Boston	+0.3-0.6-0.5-0.2-0.2-0.0
Winnipeg vs Florida					+0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1+0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto					-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina					+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida					+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

73	-84								In		Yes		100															96	*
72		30	4		-	4	0		In		93.5	%	97	3														31	*
71		30	5		-	3	0		In		98.5		100															67	*
70		29	5		-	4	0		In		89.6		99			1												144	*
69		29	6		-	3	0		In		83.0		95	4		1												277	*
68		28	6		-	4	0		In		71.9		90	9		1												516	*
67		28	7		-	3	0		In		61.3		84	12	0	4	0											888	*
66		27	7		-	4	0		In		47.8		77	16	0	6												1,555	*
65		27	8		-	3	0		In		33.6		69	21	1	8	0											2,522	*
64		26	8		-	4	0		In		20.3		54	30	2	12	1	0										4,005	*
63		26	9		-	3	0		In		8.7		41	35	5	18	1	0										5,850	*
62		25	9		-	4	0		In		3.5		26	37	9	23	4	0										8,919	*
61		24	9		-	5	0		In		0.7		14	35	14	29	8	1	0									12,427	*
60		24	10		-	4	0		In		0.1		6	27	18	31	14	2	0	0								16,763	*
59		23	10		-	5	0		In		0.0		2	18	21	27	24	7	1	0								22,130	*
58		23	11		-	4	0		100.0	%	No		0	9	21	19	30	16	4	0	0							28,090	*
57		22	11		-	5	0		99.7		No		0	3	17	10	28	27	12	2	0	0	0					34,493	*
56		22	12		-	4	0		98.0		No			1	12	3	17	31	25	10	2	0	0					41,040	*
55		21	12		-	5	0		88.4		No			0	6	0	5	19	32	25	10	2	0	0				26,010	*
		22	13		-	3	0		91.4		No			0	8	1	8	23	31	20	7	1	0					21,796	*
54		21	13		-	4	0		71.1		No			0	4	0	1	9	25	32	20	7	1	0				20,981
		20	12		-	6	0		67.7		No			0	3	0	1	8	23	32	22	9	2	0	0			32,618	*
53		20	13		-	5	0		33.8		No				1	0	0	1	8	23	32	24	9	1	0			35,123	*
		21	14		-	3	0		45.6		No			0	2	0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0			22,832	*
52		20	14		-	4	0		16.8		No				1		0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0		36,597	*
		19	13		-	6	0		11.4		No				1		0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	0		24,479	*
51		19	14		-	5	0		3.2		No				0			0	0	3	12	27	33	19	5	1	0	23,281
		20	15		-	3	0		4.8		No				0		0	0	1	4	15	30	30	16	4	0	0	19,916
		18	13		-	7	0		3.1		No				0			0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0	19,531	*
50		19	15		-	4	0		0.7		No				0				0	1	4	17	31	30	14	3	0	23,891
		18	14		-	6	0		0.6		No				0			0	0	1	4	15	30	31	16	4	0	38,106	*
49		18	15		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	5	19	33	29	11	1	22,257
		19	16		-	3	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	6	20	33	28	11	1	37,396	*
48		18	16		-	4	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	28	35	20	4	31,894	*
		17	15		-	6	0		0.0		No									0	0	1	8	24	37	25	6	24,252	*
47		17	16		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	3	16	35	34	11	50,855	*
46		17	17		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	1	8	27	43	22	44,943	*
45		16	17		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	3	18	43	35	38,463	*
44		16	18		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	10	40	49	31,856	*
43		15	18		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	5	32	63	26,103	*
42		15	19		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	2	23	74	20,486	*
41		14	19		-	5	0		Out		No													0	1	17	82	15,338	*
40		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No													0	0	11	88	11,389	*
39		13	20		-	5	0		Out		No														0	8	92	8,305	*
38		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No														0	4	96	5,618	*
37		12	21		-	5	0		Out		No															2	98	3,935	*
36		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	2,515	*
35		11	22		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	1,605	*
34		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	939	*
8	-33								Out		No																100	1,377	*

Total:									32.4	%	0.5	%	2	3	4	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	10	12	14	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-1.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	-0.9
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	*+0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+0.0
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-0.0
Phoenix 4 Dallas 2	-0.0
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-0.0
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	*-0.0
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Pittsburgh vs Washington	+1.4+0.3+0.3-0.9-1.1-1.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1+0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

73	-84								100
72		30	4		-	4	0		94	3	3
71		30	5		-	3	0		99	1
70		29	5		-	4	0		90	10					1
69		29	6		-	3	0		83	12	4				1
68		28	6		-	4	0		72	18	9				1
67		28	7		-	3	0		61	22	12	0	0		4		0
66		27	7		-	4	0		48	30	15	1	0		6	0
65		27	8		-	3	0		34	35	20	2	1		8	0	0
64		26	8		-	4	0		20	34	26	4	2		12	1	1		0
63		26	9		-	3	0		9	32	26	9	5	0	15	2	1		0
62		25	9		-	4	0		3	22	23	15	9	1	18	5	4	0	0
61		24	9		-	5	0		1	13	15	20	12	2	18	11	7	1	1	0	0
60		24	10		-	4	0		0	6	7	20	15	4	14	16	12	2	2	0	0		0
59		23	10		-	5	0		0	2	2	15	14	8	8	19	17	7	7	0	1	0	0
58		23	11		-	4	0			0	1	8	10	11	3	17	15	16	14	3	4	0	0		0
57		22	11		-	5	0			0	0	3	5	11	1	9	7	21	17	10	11	2	2	0	0	0	0
56		22	12		-	4	0				0	1	2	9	0	3	2	15	11	19	17	8	9	1	2	0	0
55		21	12		-	5	0					0	1	6	0	1	0	6	3	18	13	18	17	6	8	2	0	0	0
54		21	13		-	4	0					0	0	4		0	0	2	0	10	5	21	15	16	15	8	3	1	0	0
		20	12		-	6	0					0	0	3		0		1	0	6	3	17	14	19	18	12	5	1	0	0	0
53		20	13		-	5	0					0	0	2		0		0	0	2	1	9	5	20	15	19	15	8	3	1	0	0
		21	14		-	3	0						0	2		0		0	0	2	0	9	5	20	15	19	15	8	3	1	0	0
52		20	14		-	4	0						0	1				0		0	0	3	1	12	7	16	21	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
		19	13		-	6	0						0	1				0		0	0	2	0	8	5	14	21	21	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
51		19	14		-	5	0							0						0		0	0	3	1	4	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
		20	15		-	3	0							0				0		0		0	0	3	1	5	12	19	22	19	11	5	2	0	0
50		19	15		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
		18	14		-	6	0							0						0		0		1	0	1	3	8	16	22	21	16	8	3	1	0
49		18	15		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0
48		18	16		-	4	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	4	10	18	25	23	14	5	1	0
		17	15		-	6	0							0										0			0	0	1	3	9	17	24	24	15	6	1	0
47		17	16		-	5	0																					0	0	1	2	8	17	26	25	15	5	1
46		17	17		-	4	0																						0	0	0	2	8	19	28	26	14	3
45		16	17		-	5	0																							0	0	0	3	9	22	32	25	8
44		16	18		-	4	0																								0	0	1	4	13	29	36	18
43		15	18		-	5	0																									0	0	1	6	22	40	31
42		15	19		-	4	0																										0	0	2	13	39	45
41		14	19		-	5	0																										0	0	1	7	33	59
40		14	20		-	4	0																												0	3	26	70
39		13	20		-	5	0																												0	2	19	80
38		13	21		-	4	0																												0	1	13	87
37		12	21		-	5	0																													0	8	92
36		12	22		-	4	0																													0	4	96
35		11	22		-	5	0																														3	97
34		11	23		-	4	0																														1	99
33		10	23		-	5	0																														1	99
32		10	24		-	4	0																														1	99
31		10	25		-	3	0																														1	99
8	-30																																					100

Total:									1	1	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	3	2	3	2	3	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	7	7