Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 54.3%

9 points 4 3-1 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-7.0		-1.4		-0.7
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+5.0		+0.8		+0.5
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	*+0.1
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	*+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2			*-0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6					-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Carolina	-7.2-1.7-1.0+5.1+5.4+5.9		-1.0-0.3-0.3+0.7+0.8+0.9		-0.7-0.2-0.1+0.5+0.6+0.6
Winnipeg vs Florida					+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay					+0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Florida					+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto					-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

75	-89								In		Yes		100															181	*
74		31	6		-	3	0		In		99.1	%	99			1												114	*
73		30	6		-	4	0		In		97.7		100															221	*
72		30	7		-	3	0		In		96.8		99	1														438	*
71		29	7		-	4	0		In		93.6		99	1		0												750	*
70		29	8		-	3	0		In		89.2		96	2		1												1,330	*
69		28	8		-	4	0		In		82.3		95	4	0	1												2,016	*
68		28	9		-	3	0		In		74.0		91	7	0	3												3,187	*
67		27	9		-	4	0		In		63.2		86	11	0	4	0											4,906	*
66		26	9		-	5	0		In		48.6		77	16	1	6	0											7,368	*
65		26	10		-	4	0		In		34.6		68	22	1	8	0											10,397	*
64		25	10		-	5	0		In		20.2		54	29	3	13	1											13,953	*
63		25	11		-	4	0		In		9.6		39	36	5	19	1	0										18,636	*
62		24	11		-	5	0		In		3.6		26	38	9	24	3	0										23,977	*
61		24	12		-	4	0		In		0.9		14	36	15	27	7	1	0									29,797	*
60		23	12		-	5	0		In		0.1		6	28	20	30	14	2	0	0								36,527	*
59		23	13		-	4	0		In		0.0		2	20	23	28	21	5	1	0								24,300	*
		22	12		-	6	0		In		0.0		1	16	23	26	25	8	1	0								18,642	*
58		22	13		-	5	0		100.0	%	No		0	9	23	19	29	15	3	0	0							48,747	*
57		22	14		-	4	0		99.8		No		0	5	20	12	29	24	9	2	0							29,791	*
		21	13		-	6	0		99.6		No		0	3	18	8	27	28	13	3	0	0						23,921	*
56		21	14		-	5	0		98.2		No			1	13	3	17	31	24	9	2	0	0					21,663
		22	15		-	3	0		98.1		No			1	14	3	18	30	23	9	2	0						36,191	*
55		21	15		-	4	0		92.5		No			0	9	1	8	24	31	20	6	1	0					22,402
		20	14		-	6	0		90.1		No			0	8	1	6	21	31	22	8	2	0	0				37,753	*
54		20	15		-	5	0		67.9		No			0	4	0	1	8	23	32	22	8	1	0	0			39,815	*
		21	16		-	3	0		78.2		No			0	6	0	2	13	28	30	16	5	1	0				20,934	*
53		20	16		-	4	0		41.6		No			0	2	0	0	2	11	26	31	20	7	1	0			60,151	*
52		19	16		-	5	0		16.2		No			0	1		0	0	3	12	28	31	18	6	1	0		21,652
		20	17		-	3	0		16.9		No				1		0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	0	36,117	*
51		19	17		-	4	0		4.2		No				0			0	0	3	14	28	31	18	5	1	0	28,651	*
		18	16		-	6	0		4.5		No				0			0	0	4	15	30	30	16	4	1	0	24,628	*
50		18	17		-	5	0		0.9		No				0			0	0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0	48,743	*
49		18	18		-	4	0		0.2		No				0				0	0	1	7	22	34	26	9	1	43,097	*
48		17	18		-	5	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	10	28	36	20	4	36,848	*
47		17	19		-	4	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	4	17	35	33	10	30,567	*
46		16	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	1	9	28	42	20	25,220	*
45		16	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	4	19	44	33	19,753	*
44		15	20		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	11	41	47	14,968	*
43		15	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	5	34	60	11,213	*
42		14	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	26	71	8,207	*
41		14	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	18	81	5,735	*
40		13	22		-	5	0		Out		No														1	12	88	4,055	*
39		13	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	8	91	2,576	*
38		12	23		-	5	0		Out		No															4	96	1,684	*
37		12	24		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	1,111	*
36		11	24		-	5	0		Out		No															2	98	669	*
35		11	25		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	397	*
34		10	25		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	201	*
9	-33								Out		No																100	300	*

Total:									54.3	%	2.5	%	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	+1.5
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	-1.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.1
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	*-0.0
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	*-0.0
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*+0.0
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+0.0
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Carolina	+1.5+0.3+0.2-1.1-1.1-1.2
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.0
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

75	-89								100
74		31	6		-	3	0		99						1
73		30	6		-	4	0		98	2
72		30	7		-	3	0		97	2	1
71		29	7		-	4	0		94	5	1				0
70		29	8		-	3	0		89	7	2				1
69		28	8		-	4	0		82	12	4	0	0		1
68		28	9		-	3	0		74	17	7	0	0		3
67		27	9		-	4	0		63	22	10	0	0		3	0	0
66		26	9		-	5	0		49	29	16	1	1		6	0	0
65		26	10		-	4	0		35	34	20	2	1		8	0	0
64		25	10		-	5	0		20	34	25	4	3	0	13	1	1
63		25	11		-	4	0		10	30	27	9	5	0	16	2	1		0
62		24	11		-	5	0		4	23	23	15	8	0	18	5	3	0	0
61		24	12		-	4	0		1	14	15	20	13	2	17	10	7	0	1	0	0
60		23	12		-	5	0		0	6	8	20	15	4	14	16	12	2	2	0	0		0
59		23	13		-	4	0		0	2	3	16	15	8	8	19	16	7	6	0	1	0	0
58		22	13		-	5	0			0	1	9	11	12	3	16	14	14	13	3	3	0	0		0
57		22	14		-	4	0			0	0	5	7	13	1	11	8	20	16	9	8	1	2	0	0
		21	13		-	6	0			0	0	3	6	12	0	8	7	20	17	12	11	2	3	0	0	0
56		21	14		-	5	0				0	1	2	10	0	3	2	15	11	19	17	8	9	1	2	0	0	0
		22	15		-	3	0				0	1	3	11	0	4	2	17	12	18	15	6	7	1	1	0
55		21	15		-	4	0					0	1	8	0	1	0	8	4	20	14	17	15	5	6	1	0	0	0
		20	14		-	6	0					0	1	8		1	0	6	3	18	13	18	16	6	8	2	0	0	0
54		20	15		-	5	0					0	0	5		0	0	2	0	10	5	20	15	16	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
		19	14		-	7	0					0	0	4		0		1	0	8	4	19	14	17	17	11	4	1	0	0	0
53		20	16		-	4	0					0	0	2		0		0	0	2	1	10	6	20	16	18	14	7	3	1	0	0
52		19	16		-	5	0					0		1				0		0	0	3	1	12	6	16	22	19	12	6	2	0	0	0
		20	17		-	3	0						0	1				0		0	0	3	1	12	7	15	21	19	13	6	2	1	0	0
51		19	17		-	4	0							0						0		0	0	3	1	5	12	20	22	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
50		18	17		-	5	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0
49		18	18		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
48		17	18		-	5	0							0										0	0	0	0	0	1	4	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0
47		17	19		-	4	0							0														0	0	1	3	8	18	26	24	14	5	1
46		16	19		-	5	0																						0	0	0	3	8	20	27	26	13	3
45		16	20		-	4	0																								0	1	3	10	23	32	24	8
44		15	20		-	5	0																									0	1	4	14	30	35	16
43		15	21		-	4	0																									0	0	1	7	23	40	29
42		14	21		-	5	0																									0	0	0	2	15	39	43
41		14	22		-	4	0																											0	1	7	34	58
40		13	22		-	5	0																												0	4	26	69
39		13	23		-	4	0																												0	2	19	79
38		12	23		-	5	0																													1	13	86
37		12	24		-	4	0																													0	8	91
36		11	24		-	5	0																														4	96
35		11	25		-	4	0																													0	4	96
34		10	25		-	5	0																														2	98
33		10	26		-	4	0																														1	99
32		9	26		-	5	0																														2	98
9	-31																																					100

Total:									3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3