Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Beat NY Islanders 5-0, playoff odds up 6.3 to 61.4%

12 points 6 4-0 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-6.9		-1.3		-0.7
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	+6.2		+0.9		+0.6
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	+6.1		+0.9		+0.6
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*+0.2				+0.0
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	+0.2
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	*+0.1				+0.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0			*-0.1
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3					+0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6					+0.0
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Pittsburgh vs Washington	+6.0+5.5+4.7-0.9-1.6-7.3		+1.1+1.2+0.8-0.4-0.3-1.3		+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.1-0.2-0.7
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Florida					-0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.2+0.1*-0.2-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

73	-88								In		99.3	%	100															595	*
72		28	6		-	4	0		In		96.8		100	0														497	*
71		28	7		-	3	0		In		93.2		97	2		0												906	*
70		27	7		-	4	0		In		90.0		97	2		0												1,504	*
69		27	8		-	3	0		In		83.8		95	4		1												2,464	*
68		26	8		-	4	0		In		75.5		91	7	0	2												4,037	*
67		26	9		-	3	0		In		66.9		87	9	0	3	0											5,994	*
66		25	9		-	4	0		In		52.6		80	15	1	4	0											8,641	*
65		25	10		-	3	0		In		37.3		70	22	1	7	0											12,553	*
64		24	10		-	4	0		In		23.2		58	28	3	10	0											16,777	*
63		23	10		-	5	0		In		12.0		44	35	5	15	1	0	0									22,060	*
62		23	11		-	4	0		In		4.8		29	39	9	20	2	0										28,096	*
61		22	11		-	5	0		In		1.4		17	38	14	25	5	0	0									34,806	*
60		22	12		-	4	0		In		0.2		8	32	21	27	11	1	0	0								41,198	*
59		21	12		-	5	0		In		0.0		3	22	25	27	19	5	0	0								47,790	*
58		21	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	12	26	21	26	12	2	0	0							53,547	*
57		20	13		-	5	0		99.9		No		0	5	23	12	28	22	8	1	0							29,043	*
		21	14		-	3	0		99.9		No		0	5	24	13	28	22	8	1	0	0						29,107	*
56		20	14		-	4	0		99.1		No		0	1	18	5	20	30	19	6	1	0						41,287	*
		21	15		-	2	0		98.7		No			2	18	5	20	28	19	6	1	0	0					19,887	*
55		19	14		-	5	0		94.4		No			0	12	1	9	25	30	18	5	1	0					23,191
		20	15		-	3	0		95.9		No			1	13	2	11	27	28	14	4	0	0					19,750
		18	13		-	7	0		92.6		No			0	11	1	8	23	30	19	6	1	0					19,507	*
54		19	15		-	4	0		77.8		No			0	7	0	2	12	27	30	17	5	1	0	0			31,993	*
		18	14		-	6	0		79.5		No			0	7	0	3	13	28	29	15	4	1	0				30,149	*
53		18	15		-	5	0		50.4		No				4	0	0	4	14	28	29	16	5	1	0			29,677	*
		19	16		-	3	0		51.9		No			0	4	0	0	4	15	29	29	15	4	1	0			30,011	*
52		18	16		-	4	0		24.5		No			0	2		0	1	5	17	31	28	13	3	0			21,629
		17	15		-	6	0		21.6		No				2		0	0	4	15	29	29	15	4	1	0		34,203	*
51		17	16		-	5	0		5.8		No				1			0	1	5	16	31	29	14	3	0	0	28,643	*
		18	17		-	3	0		8.3		No				1			0	1	6	20	31	27	11	2	0		22,036	*
50		17	17		-	4	0		1.9		No				0			0	0	2	8	23	33	24	8	1	0	25,406	*
		16	16		-	6	0		1.0		No				0				0	1	5	18	32	29	12	3	0	19,430	*
49		16	17		-	5	0		0.3		No				0				0	0	2	9	25	34	22	7	1	38,417	*
48		16	18		-	4	0		0.0		No				0				0	0	0	3	13	31	33	17	3	31,894	*
47		15	18		-	5	0		0.0		No				0						0	1	5	21	36	29	8	26,059	*
46		15	19		-	4	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	2	11	31	39	17	20,469	*
45		14	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	1	5	22	44	29	15,442	*
44		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No												0	2	14	42	43	11,526	*
43		13	20		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	6	36	57	8,243	*
42		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	4	28	69	5,610	*
41		12	21		-	5	0		Out		No														1	20	78	3,941	*
40		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No														1	15	85	2,538	*
39		11	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	9	91	1,619	*
38		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No															5	95	979	*
37		11	24		-	3	0		Out		No															3	97	578	*
36		10	24		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	338	*
35		10	25		-	3	0		Out		No																100	172	*
34		9	25		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	97	*
12	-33								Out		No																100	164	*

Total:									61.4	%	3.3	%	8	8	9	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+1.4
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	-1.3
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	-1.3
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	-0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	-0.1
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	-0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	-0.0
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3	*-0.0
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*-0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	*-0.0
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	-0.0
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-1.2-1.2-1.0+0.2+0.3+1.5
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Florida	+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1-0.0
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1*-0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0
St. Louis vs Detroit	+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-88								100
75		30	5		-	3	0		97	3
74		30	6		-	2	0		99	1
73		29	6		-	3	0		100	0
72		28	6		-	4	0		97	3	0
71		28	7		-	3	0		93	4	2				0
70		27	7		-	4	0		90	7	2				0
69		27	8		-	3	0		84	11	4				1
68		26	8		-	4	0		76	16	6	0	0		2
67		26	9		-	3	0		67	20	9	0	0		3		0
66		25	9		-	4	0		53	27	15	0	1		4	0	0
65		25	10		-	3	0		37	33	20	2	1		7	0	0
64		24	10		-	4	0		23	35	25	4	3	0	10	1	0
63		23	10		-	5	0		12	32	27	8	5	0	13	2	1	0	0		0
62		23	11		-	4	0		5	25	25	14	9	0	16	4	2	0	0
61		22	11		-	5	0		1	16	18	20	13	1	17	8	5	0	0		0
60		22	12		-	4	0		0	8	10	22	17	4	14	13	9	1	1	0	0		0
59		21	12		-	5	0		0	3	4	18	17	8	9	18	14	5	4	0	0	0	0
58		21	13		-	4	0		0	1	1	11	14	12	4	17	14	12	10	2	2	0	0		0
57		20	13		-	5	0			0	0	5	9	15	1	11	9	19	15	7	7	1	1	0	0
		21	14		-	3	0			0	0	5	9	15	1	12	10	18	15	7	7	1	1	0	0	0
56		20	14		-	4	0			0	0	1	4	14	0	5	3	17	13	17	14	4	6	0	1	0
		21	15		-	2	0				0	2	4	14	0	5	3	17	12	16	14	5	6	0	1	0	0
55		19	14		-	5	0					0	1	10	0	1	0	8	5	19	15	15	14	4	5	1	0	0
		20	15		-	3	0					1	2	11	0	2	1	11	6	21	15	13	12	2	3	1	0
54		19	15		-	4	0					0	1	7		0	0	3	1	13	8	22	16	12	11	5	1	0	0
		18	14		-	6	0					0	0	6		0	0	2	1	9	5	20	16	15	15	8	3	1	0	0
53		18	15		-	5	0						0	4		0		0	0	3	1	13	8	21	17	17	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
		19	16		-	3	0					0	0	4		0		0	0	4	1	14	8	21	16	16	10	4	1	0	0	0
52		18	16		-	4	0					0	0	2				0	0	1	0	5	2	16	10	19	20	15	8	3	1	0	0
		17	15		-	6	0						0	2				0		0	0	4	1	14	9	18	21	17	10	4	1	0	0		0
51		17	16		-	5	0						0	1						0	0	1	0	5	2	8	16	22	21	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
50		17	17		-	4	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	2	0	0
49		16	17		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
48		16	18		-	4	0							0								0		0		0	0	0	2	6	13	21	25	19	10	3	1	0
47		15	18		-	5	0							0													0	0	0	1	4	12	21	26	21	11	3	0
46		15	19		-	4	0							0															0	0	1	4	12	22	28	22	10	2
45		14	19		-	5	0																							0	0	1	4	12	25	31	20	6
44		14	20		-	4	0																								0	0	1	6	16	31	31	14
43		13	20		-	5	0																										0	2	9	25	40	25
42		13	21		-	4	0																										0	1	4	16	40	40
41		12	21		-	5	0																											0	1	9	35	54
40		12	22		-	4	0																												1	5	29	66
39		11	22		-	5	0																												0	2	21	76
38		11	23		-	4	0																													1	15	84
37		11	24		-	3	0																													0	10	89
36		10	24		-	4	0																														5	95
35		10	25		-	3	0																														6	94
34		9	25		-	4	0																														3	97
12	-33																																					100

Total:									3	4	4	5	4	5	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2