Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Lost to Los Angeles 1-2 (so), playoff odds down 1 to 58.6%

12 points 5 3-2 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	-6.8		-1.9		-0.7
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	-1.3		-0.4		-0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	*+0.3				+0.0
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.2		-0.1
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9					+0.0
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3			+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1		+0.0
San Jose 4 Nashville 3					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Columbus vs Calgary	+6.1+5.6+4.8-1.1-1.2-7.4		+1.0+1.1+0.9-0.4-0.4-1.2		+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.1-0.1-0.7
St. Louis vs Detroit	+0.0-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.4+0.2				+0.0-0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.0+0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1
Nashville vs Los Angeles					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago					+0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

74	-88								In		99.1	%	100															348	*
73		29	6		-	3	0		In		98.3		99	1														236	*
72		28	6		-	4	0		In		96.6		98	2		0												526	*
71		28	7		-	3	0		In		95.3		98	2		1												932	*
70		27	7		-	4	0		In		91.9		97	3		1												1,526	*
69		27	8		-	3	0		In		84.4		93	5	0	2												2,512	*
68		26	8		-	4	0		In		77.1		89	9	0	2	0											4,005	*
67		26	9		-	3	0		In		65.6		82	13	0	5	0											6,017	*
66		25	9		-	4	0		In		51.0		73	19	0	7	0											8,902	*
65		25	10		-	3	0		In		35.5		62	25	1	11	0											12,328	*
64		24	10		-	4	0		In		21.8		49	31	3	16	1	0										16,628	*
63		23	10		-	5	0		In		11.3		35	36	5	22	2	0										22,176	*
62		23	11		-	4	0		In		4.3		22	37	8	27	5	0	0									28,443	*
61		22	11		-	5	0		In		1.2		11	33	12	31	11	1	0									34,449	*
60		22	12		-	4	0		In		0.2		4	25	16	31	19	4	0	0								41,529	*
59		21	12		-	5	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	16	18	26	28	10	1	0	0							47,873	*
58		21	13		-	4	0		100.0		No		0	8	17	18	32	20	5	1	0							21,028
		20	12		-	6	0		99.9		No		0	7	16	17	31	21	6	1	0							32,286	*
57		20	13		-	5	0		99.5		No		0	2	12	7	25	31	17	4	0	0						34,974	*
		21	14		-	3	0		99.8		No		0	4	14	10	29	29	12	2	0	0						22,863	*
56		20	14		-	4	0		97.9		No			1	9	3	16	32	27	10	2	0	0					23,935
		19	13		-	6	0		97.1		No			1	8	3	15	31	28	12	3	0	0					37,130	*
55		19	14		-	5	0		87.2		No			0	5	0	5	19	32	26	10	2	0	0				35,021	*
		20	15		-	3	0		90.4		No			0	6	1	7	22	32	23	8	2	0		0			27,544	*
54		19	15		-	4	0		71.7		No			0	3	0	1	10	25	32	21	7	1	0				36,701	*
		18	14		-	6	0		60.8		No			0	2	0	1	5	20	33	26	11	2	0	0			25,490	*
53		18	15		-	5	0		40.7		No			0	1	0	0	2	11	27	32	20	6	1	0			40,781	*
		17	14		-	7	0		33.8		No				1		0	2	8	23	32	24	9	2	0	0		18,556	*
52		18	16		-	4	0		14.8		No				0		0	0	3	12	27	32	20	6	1	0	0	55,984	*
51		17	16		-	5	0		3.4		No				0			0	0	3	12	28	32	19	5	1	0	28,744	*
		18	17		-	3	0		5.2		No				0			0	1	4	16	29	30	15	4	0		22,286	*
50		17	17		-	4	0		0.7		No				0			0	0	1	5	17	32	30	13	3	0	44,944	*
49		16	17		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	7	22	34	25	9	1	38,486	*
48		16	18		-	4	0		0.0		No									0	0	2	11	29	35	19	4	32,165	*
47		15	18		-	5	0		Out		No										0	1	4	19	36	32	9	25,815	*
46		15	19		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	1	10	30	41	18	20,178	*
45		14	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	4	22	44	30	15,314	*
44		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	2	13	42	43	11,531	*
43		13	20		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	7	37	55	8,120	*
42		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No													0	3	28	68	5,808	*
41		12	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	1	21	78	3,893	*
40		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No														1	15	84	2,492	*
39		11	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	9	91	1,582	*
38		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	6	94	999	*
37		10	23		-	5	0		Out		No															3	97	598	*
36		10	24		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	348	*
35		10	25		-	3	0		Out		No															3	97	195	*
34		9	25		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	97	*
33		8	25		-	5	0		Out		No															2	98	55	*
12	-32								Out		No																100	127	*

Total:									58.6	%	3.2	%	6	7	6	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	+1.5
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+0.2
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.1
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	-0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	-0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	-0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	*-0.0
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	-0.0
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	*-0.0
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Columbus vs Calgary	-1.2-1.1-1.0+0.3+0.2+1.5
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

75	-88								100
74		29	5		-	4	0		98	2
73		29	6		-	3	0		98	1	1
72		28	6		-	4	0		97	2	2				0
71		28	7		-	3	0		95	3	2				1
70		27	7		-	4	0		92	5	3				1
69		27	8		-	3	0		84	8	5		0		2
68		26	8		-	4	0		77	12	9		0		2		0
67		26	9		-	3	0		66	17	12	0	0		5	0	0
66		25	9		-	4	0		51	22	19	1	0		7	0	0
65		25	10		-	3	0		36	26	24	2	1	0	11	0	0
64		24	10		-	4	0		22	27	28	4	3	0	16	1	1		0
63		23	10		-	5	0		11	23	29	7	5	0	20	2	2	0	0
62		23	11		-	4	0		4	17	25	12	8	0	23	4	5	0	0		0
61		22	11		-	5	0		1	10	17	16	11	1	23	8	11	0	1	0	0
60		22	12		-	4	0		0	4	8	16	13	3	18	13	18	2	4	0	0		0
59		21	12		-	5	0		0	1	3	12	12	5	10	15	23	6	10	0	1	0	0		0
		22	13		-	3	0		0	1	3	13	12	5	11	16	22	5	9	0	1		0		0
58		21	13		-	4	0			0	1	7	9	8	4	14	20	12	18	2	5	0	1		0
		20	12		-	6	0			0	1	7	9	8	4	13	19	12	19	2	6	0	1	0	0
57		20	13		-	5	0			0	0	2	4	8	1	6	9	16	23	9	16	1	4	0	0	0
		21	14		-	3	0			0	0	4	5	9	1	9	12	17	22	7	12	1	2	0	0	0
56		20	14		-	4	0				0	1	2	7	0	3	3	13	16	16	21	5	10	0	2	0	0
		19	13		-	6	0				0	1	2	6	0	3	3	12	15	16	22	6	12	1	3	0	0
55		19	14		-	5	0					0	1	4	0	0	0	5	5	15	18	15	20	4	9	2	0	0	0
54		19	15		-	4	0					0	0	2		0	0	1	1	7	6	16	19	14	19	10	3	1	0	0	0
53		18	15		-	5	0					0	0	1			0	0	0	2	1	9	7	18	19	21	14	6	2	0	0	0	0
		19	16		-	3	0					0	0	1		0		0	0	2	1	9	8	18	19	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
52		18	16		-	4	0						0	0				0		0	0	3	1	11	10	19	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
		17	15		-	6	0							0				0		0	0	2	1	10	8	18	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
51		17	16		-	5	0						0	0						0		0	0	3	2	7	14	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0
50		17	17		-	4	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	1	4	10	18	22	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
49		16	17		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	2	7	14	21	23	18	9	3	1	0
48		16	18		-	4	0																	0		0	0	0	1	5	11	20	25	21	11	4	1	0
47		15	18		-	5	0																					0	0	1	4	10	19	26	23	13	4	1
46		15	19		-	4	0																						0	0	1	3	9	21	29	24	11	2
45		14	19		-	5	0																						0		0	1	3	12	24	31	23	7
44		14	20		-	4	0																								0	0	1	5	16	30	34	15
43		13	20		-	5	0																									0	0	1	8	25	40	26
42		13	21		-	4	0																										0	0	3	15	41	41
41		12	21		-	5	0																											0	1	8	35	56
40		12	22		-	4	0																											0	1	4	29	67
39		11	22		-	5	0																												0	2	19	79
38		11	23		-	4	0																													1	12	87
37		10	23		-	5	0																													0	8	91
36		10	24		-	4	0																													1	5	94
35		10	25		-	3	0																														5	95
34		9	25		-	4	0																														2	98
33		8	25		-	5	0																														2	98
12	-32																																					100

Total:									3	3	4	3	3	2	4	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	4	3	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2