Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.04 to 46.6%

9 points 4 4-1 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	+5.8		+0.5		+0.6
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	-1.7		-0.3		-0.2
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.2				+0.0
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	*+0.1
Phoenix 4 Dallas 2	*+0.1				+0.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	*-0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1					-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Edmonton vs Dallas	+6.0+5.9+5.2-1.6-1.4-7.3		+0.6+0.6+0.6-0.3-0.3-0.7		+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.2-0.1-0.7
Colorado vs Anaheim					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Calgary					+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs Vancouver					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim					-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

73	-87								In		99.2	%	100															250	*
72		30	6		-	3	0		In		96.9		99	1														163	*
71		29	6		-	4	0		In		94.3		97	2	0	0												282	*
70		29	7		-	3	0		In		91.8		96	4	0	0												607	*
69		28	7		-	4	0		In		85.1		93	7		0												1,064	*
68		28	8		-	3	0		In		75.9		88	11	0	1												1,702	*
67		27	8		-	4	0		In		63.8		81	16	0	2												2,923	*
66		27	9		-	3	0		In		52.2		73	23	1	3	0											4,428	*
65		26	9		-	4	0		In		36.7		62	30	3	5	0											6,587	*
64		25	9		-	5	0		In		22.9		49	38	5	7	0	0										9,484	*
63		25	10		-	4	0		In		10.9		34	45	9	11	1	0										13,240	*
62		24	10		-	5	0		In		4.1		22	45	16	16	2	0										17,670	*
61		24	11		-	4	0		In		1.2		12	41	23	19	6	0	0									23,237	*
60		23	11		-	5	0		In		0.2		4	31	31	21	11	2	0	0								29,148	*
59		23	12		-	4	0		In		0.0		1	20	35	19	18	6	1	0								35,667	*
58		22	12		-	5	0		100.0	%	No		0	10	36	13	23	14	4	0	0							41,717	*
57		22	13		-	4	0		99.8		No		0	4	32	8	22	22	9	2	0	0						27,684	*
		21	12		-	6	0		99.5		No		0	3	30	5	20	24	14	3	0	0						20,502	*
56		21	13		-	5	0		97.8		No		0	1	24	2	13	26	22	10	2	0	0					53,372	*
55		21	14		-	4	0		91.0		No			0	17	0	5	19	29	20	7	1	0	0				22,275
		20	13		-	6	0		88.6		No			0	15	0	5	17	28	22	9	2	0	0				35,858	*
54		20	14		-	5	0		65.6		No			0	9	0	1	6	20	30	23	9	2	0	0			38,341	*
		21	15		-	3	0		75.6		No			0	11	0	2	10	24	29	18	5	1	0				22,212	*
53		20	15		-	4	0		43.4		No			0	6	0	0	2	10	25	31	19	6	1	0			23,607
		19	14		-	6	0		39.1		No			0	5		0	2	9	23	30	21	8	1	0			38,256	*
52		19	15		-	5	0		15.7		No				3		0	0	2	11	26	32	19	6	1	0		22,680
		20	16		-	3	0		16.9		No				3		0	0	3	11	26	31	19	6	1	0		38,114	*
51		19	16		-	4	0		5.9		No				1			0	0	4	16	30	30	14	3	0		32,310	*
		18	15		-	6	0		3.6		No				1			0	0	3	11	27	32	20	6	1	0	26,726	*
50		18	16		-	5	0		1.3		No				0			0	0	1	5	18	32	29	12	2	0	36,586	*
		17	15		-	7	0		0.9		No				0				0	0	4	15	30	31	15	4	0	18,207	*
49		18	17		-	4	0		0.3		No				0				0	0	1	7	22	34	26	8	1	24,648	*
		17	16		-	6	0		0.2		No				0					0	1	7	22	34	26	8	1	25,642	*
48		17	17		-	5	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	28	36	20	4	25,200	*
		18	18		-	3	0		0.1		No				0					0	0	2	13	30	34	17	3	18,778	*
47		17	18		-	4	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	5	18	36	31	9	37,796	*
46		16	18		-	5	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	1	10	30	41	18	31,434	*
45		16	19		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	4	21	44	30	25,390	*
44		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No												0	2	13	42	43	19,858	*
43		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	7	36	57	15,466	*
42		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No													0	4	29	67	11,216	*
41		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No														1	21	78	8,103	*
40		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No														1	14	85	5,655	*
39		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No														0	10	90	3,786	*
38		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	6	94	2,492	*
37		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	1,664	*
36		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No															3	97	998	*
35		11	24		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	650	*
34		10	24		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	359	*
9	-33								Out		No																100	466	*

Total:									46.6	%	1.6	%	3	6	11	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-1.2
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+0.4
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+0.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	+0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	*-0.0
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	-0.0
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2	*-0.0
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Edmonton vs Dallas	-1.2-1.2-1.0+0.3+0.3+1.5
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1*-0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0
Nashville vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1-0.0-0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

74	-87								100
73		30	5		-	4	0		98	2
72		30	6		-	3	0		97	2	1
71		29	6		-	4	0		94	3	2		0		0
70		29	7		-	3	0		92	4	4		0		0
69		28	7		-	4	0		85	8	7				0
68		28	8		-	3	0		76	12	11		0		1
67		27	8		-	4	0		64	17	16	0	0		2
66		27	9		-	3	0		52	21	22	1	1		3	0	0
65		26	9		-	4	0		37	26	29	2	3		5	0	0
64		25	9		-	5	0		23	26	34	4	5	0	7	0	0		0
63		25	10		-	4	0		11	23	37	8	9	0	10	1	1	0	0
62		24	10		-	5	0		4	18	30	14	15	1	13	2	2	0	0
61		24	11		-	4	0		1	10	21	20	21	2	14	5	5	0	0		0
60		23	11		-	5	0		0	4	11	20	26	6	12	9	10	1	2	0	0		0
59		23	12		-	4	0		0	1	4	16	24	10	8	11	15	3	6	0	1	0	0
58		22	12		-	5	0			0	1	9	19	16	3	10	15	8	12	1	4	0	0		0
57		22	13		-	4	0			0	0	4	12	19	1	6	9	12	18	6	10	1	3	0	0	0
56		21	13		-	5	0			0	0	1	6	18	0	2	3	11	13	13	18	4	9	0	2	0	0	0
55		21	14		-	4	0					0	2	14		0	0	5	5	14	17	12	17	3	7	2	0	0
		20	13		-	6	0					0	2	14		0	0	4	5	13	16	12	18	4	9	2	0	0
54		20	14		-	5	0					0	1	9		0	0	1	1	6	6	15	18	12	18	9	3	1	0	0
		21	15		-	3	0					0	1	10		0	0	2	1	9	7	16	19	11	16	7	2	0	0
		19	13		-	7	0					0	1	8		0	0	1	0	5	5	14	17	13	20	11	4	1	0	0	0
53		20	15		-	4	0					0	0	6		0		0	0	2	1	9	8	17	20	19	12	5	2	0	0	0		0
		19	14		-	6	0					0	0	5				0	0	2	1	8	7	16	18	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
52		19	15		-	5	0						0	2				0		0	0	2	1	9	8	18	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
		20	16		-	3	0						0	3				0		0	0	3	2	12	11	20	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
51		19	16		-	4	0						0	1						0	0	0	0	3	2	7	15	21	21	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
50		18	16		-	5	0							0						0		0		1	0	1	4	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
		19	17		-	3	0						0	0						0		0		1	0	1	4	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	0	0
49		18	17		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	1	2	7	14	22	23	18	9	3	1	0
		17	16		-	6	0							0										0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
48		17	17		-	5	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0
47		17	18		-	4	0							0													0	0	0	1	4	10	20	27	22	12	4	1
46		16	18		-	5	0							0															0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	2
45		16	19		-	4	0																							0	0	1	4	12	24	31	22	7
44		15	19		-	5	0																									0	1	5	16	31	33	14
43		15	20		-	4	0																									0	0	2	7	24	40	27
42		14	20		-	5	0																										0	0	4	16	40	40
41		14	21		-	4	0																											0	1	9	35	55
40		13	21		-	5	0																												0	5	27	67
39		13	22		-	4	0																												0	2	21	77
38		12	22		-	5	0																												0	1	13	86
37		12	23		-	4	0																													0	8	91
36		11	23		-	5	0																													0	6	93
35		11	24		-	4	0																														4	96
34		10	24		-	5	0																														3	97
33		10	25		-	4	0																														1	99
9	-32																																					100

Total:									2	2	3	3	5	6	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3