SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 74.1%

12 points 6 2-0 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2	+5.7		+1.4		+0.6
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	+5.3		+1.7		+0.6
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	-0.7
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*-0.3
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	+0.2
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	*+0.1				*+0.0
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	*+0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	*+0.1
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3			+0.2
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.2
San Jose 2 Chicago 0			-0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0			*+0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6					+0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs Montreal	-6.1-1.2-1.0+4.0+4.8+5.0		-2.5-0.6-0.6+1.5+1.9+2.1		-0.7-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.5+0.6
Montreal vs Boston	+4.9+4.6+4.0-0.8-1.1-6.0		+2.0+2.3+1.6-0.5-0.7-2.4		+0.6+0.5+0.4-0.1-0.2-0.7
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3*-0.1-0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida			+0.2-0.1-0.2-0.0+0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.1-0.1+0.1-0.3-0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina					-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto					+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

75	-92								In		99.6	%	100															963	*
74		29	7		-	4	0		In		98.3		100	0														772	*
73		28	7		-	5	0		In		96.9		99	1		0												1,340	*
72		28	8		-	4	0		In		96.1		99	1		0												2,142	*
71		28	9		-	3	0		In		94.1		98	1		0												3,305	*
70		27	9		-	4	0		In		91.1		97	2	0	1												5,002	*
69		26	9		-	5	0		In		84.9		96	3	0	1												7,203	*
68		26	10		-	4	0		In		76.8		92	6	0	2												10,409	*
67		25	10		-	5	0		In		65.2		87	9	0	4	0											14,151	*
66		25	11		-	4	0		In		51.8		80	14	0	6	0											18,745	*
65		24	11		-	5	0		In		37.3		71	19	1	9	0											24,328	*
64		24	12		-	4	0		In		23.5		59	26	2	13	0	0										30,050	*
63		23	12		-	5	0		In		11.9		45	32	4	17	1	0										36,320	*
62		23	13		-	4	0		In		4.7		30	36	7	24	3	0	0									42,562	*
61		22	13		-	5	0		In		1.2		18	35	12	28	6	0										24,453	*
		23	14		-	3	0		In		1.3		18	36	12	29	6	0	0									24,257	*
60		22	14		-	4	0		In		0.3		9	30	16	32	11	1	0									20,339
		21	13		-	6	0		In		0.2		8	29	17	31	13	2	0									33,277	*
59		21	14		-	5	0		In		0.0		3	22	20	30	20	4	0	0								38,025	*
		20	13		-	7	0		100.0	%	0.0		2	18	20	30	22	6	1	0	0							19,306	*
58		21	15		-	4	0		100.0		No		1	12	21	25	28	11	2	0	0							34,389	*
		20	14		-	6	0		100.0		No		1	9	21	21	31	14	3	0	0							25,584	*
57		20	15		-	5	0		99.8		No		0	4	18	13	30	25	9	2	0	0						26,736	*
		21	16		-	3	0		99.9		No		0	5	18	14	30	23	8	1	0							34,205	*
56		20	16		-	4	0		99.3		No		0	2	14	6	24	31	18	5	1	0	0					22,421
		19	15		-	6	0		98.7		No		0	1	13	5	21	31	21	7	1	0						38,049	*
55		19	16		-	5	0		93.5		No			0	8	1	10	26	30	18	5	1	0					29,251	*
		20	17		-	3	0		94.4		No			0	9	1	10	26	31	17	5	1	0	0				28,541	*
54		19	17		-	4	0		77.9		No			0	5	0	3	13	28	30	17	5	1	0	0			54,130	*
53		18	17		-	5	0		49.4		No			0	2	0	0	3	15	29	30	16	5	1	0			49,072	*
52		18	18		-	4	0		25.5		No				1		0	1	5	18	31	27	13	3	0	0		22,238	*
		17	17		-	6	0		17.1		No				1		0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0	0	20,437	*
51		17	18		-	5	0		6.3		No				0		0	0	1	5	17	31	28	14	3	0	0	36,664	*
50		17	19		-	4	0		1.2		No				0			0	0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0	30,670	*
49		16	19		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	2	9	24	33	24	8	1	24,757	*
48		16	20		-	4	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	3	12	30	34	18	3	19,599	*
47		15	20		-	5	0		0.0		No				0						0	1	5	20	36	30	9	15,045	*
46		15	21		-	4	0		Out		No											0	1	10	30	40	17	11,292	*
45		14	21		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	5	21	44	31	8,093	*
44		14	22		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	12	42	44	5,738	*
43		13	22		-	5	0		Out		No													1	6	35	58	3,885	*
42		13	23		-	4	0		Out		No													0	3	28	69	2,598	*
41		12	23		-	5	0		Out		No													0	2	19	80	1,588	*
40		12	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	12	88	1,059	*
39		11	24		-	5	0		Out		No														0	10	90	605	*
38		11	25		-	4	0		Out		No															5	95	369	*
37		10	25		-	5	0		Out		No															5	95	207	*
36		10	26		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	121	*
35		9	26		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	73	*
12	-34								Out		No																100	135	*

Total:									74.1	%	7.6	%	15	11	8	11	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2	-1.3
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	-1.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	-0.1
Toronto 4 Boston 2	-0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	*+0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs Montreal	+1.4+0.3+0.3-0.9-1.1-1.2
Montreal vs Boston	-1.2-1.1-0.9+0.2+0.3+1.4
Ottawa vs Carolina	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1*+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-92								100
75		30	7		-	3	0		99	1
74		29	7		-	4	0		98	2	0
73		28	7		-	5	0		97	2	1				0
72		28	8		-	4	0		96	3	1				0
71		28	9		-	3	0		94	4	1				0
70		27	9		-	4	0		91	6	2		0		1
69		26	9		-	5	0		85	11	3		0		1
68		26	10		-	4	0		77	15	6	0	0		2
67		25	10		-	5	0		65	22	9	0	0		4	0	0
66		25	11		-	4	0		52	28	13	0	0		6	0	0
65		24	11		-	5	0		37	34	18	1	1	0	8	0	0
64		24	12		-	4	0		24	35	23	3	2	0	12	1	0		0
63		23	12		-	5	0		12	33	25	8	4	0	15	2	1	0	0
62		23	13		-	4	0		5	26	22	14	7	0	19	5	3	0	0		0
61		22	13		-	5	0		1	16	16	19	11	1	19	9	6	0	0
		23	14		-	3	0		1	16	17	19	11	1	19	9	6	0	0		0
60		22	14		-	4	0		0	9	10	21	14	3	16	15	10	1	1	0	0
		21	13		-	6	0		0	7	8	20	14	3	16	16	12	2	2	0	0
59		21	14		-	5	0		0	3	3	17	14	7	10	20	15	5	5	0	0		0		0
58		21	15		-	4	0			1	1	11	11	10	5	20	16	12	10	2	2	0	0		0
		20	14		-	6	0			1	1	9	11	10	3	18	16	15	12	2	3	0	0		0
57		20	15		-	5	0			0	0	4	6	12	1	12	9	21	16	8	8	1	1	0	0	0
		21	16		-	3	0			0	0	5	7	12	1	13	10	21	16	7	7	1	1	0	0
56		20	16		-	4	0			0	0	2	4	11	0	6	3	21	14	17	13	4	4	0	1	0	0
		19	15		-	6	0			0		1	3	9	0	4	2	17	13	19	16	6	7	1	1	0	0
55		19	16		-	5	0				0	0	1	7	0	1	0	9	5	21	15	15	14	4	5	1	0	0	0
54		19	17		-	4	0					0	0	4		0	0	2	1	12	6	21	16	14	14	7	2	0	0		0
		18	16		-	6	0					0	0	4		0	0	3	1	12	7	22	16	14	13	6	2	0	0	0
53		18	17		-	5	0					0	0	2		0		0	0	3	1	13	7	21	17	17	11	5	2	0	0	0
52		18	18		-	4	0						0	1				0		1	0	4	1	14	9	17	20	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
51		17	18		-	5	0							0				0		0	0	1	0	5	2	7	15	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
50		17	19		-	4	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	6	2	0	0	0
49		16	19		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
48		16	20		-	4	0							0										0			0	0	2	5	12	21	25	20	10	3	1	0
47		15	20		-	5	0							0														0	0	1	4	11	20	26	22	12	4	0
46		15	21		-	4	0																						0	0	1	4	11	22	27	23	11	2
45		14	21		-	5	0																								0	1	4	12	24	31	22	6
44		14	22		-	4	0																								0	0	1	5	16	31	33	15
43		13	22		-	5	0																									0	0	2	8	24	39	26
42		13	23		-	4	0																										0	0	4	16	40	40
41		12	23		-	5	0																											0	1	8	36	55
40		12	24		-	4	0																												0	4	29	67
39		11	24		-	5	0																												0	3	18	79
38		11	25		-	4	0																														17	83
37		10	25		-	5	0																													1	7	92
36		10	26		-	4	0																														2	98
35		9	26		-	5	0																														3	97
34		9	27		-	4	0																														3	97
12	-33																																					100

Total:									8	7	6	6	4	4	5	6	4	5	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1