Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.09 to 22.2%

5 points 2 6-1 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-5.6		-0.2		-0.6
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	+4.0		+0.1		+0.5
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	*-0.3
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.2
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)					-0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1					-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Colorado vs Anaheim	+4.6+3.9+3.4-1.1-1.3-5.4		+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1		+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.6
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+0.1-0.3+0.1-0.5-0.7+0.1				+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

71	-83								In		99.1	%	100															114	*
70		31	5		-	3	0		In		87.7		96	4														57	*
69		31	6		-	2	0		In		82.5		95	5														103	*
68		30	6		-	3	0		In		74.0		89	9	1	1												173	*
67		29	6		-	4	0		In		66.5		84	14	1	1												325	*
66		29	7		-	3	0		In		51.5		71	25	0	4												596	*
65		28	7		-	4	0		In		39.3		64	28	1	6												1,056	*
64		28	8		-	3	0		In		24.4		52	36	4	8	0											1,850	*
63		27	8		-	4	0		In		11.3		38	43	8	11	1											2,765	*
62		27	9		-	3	0		In		5.2		24	44	13	16	3	0										4,548	*
61		26	9		-	4	0		In		1.4		14	39	20	20	6	1										6,664	*
60		25	9		-	5	0		In		0.3		5	31	27	22	12	2	0	0								9,572	*
59		25	10		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		2	20	32	21	19	6	1	0	0							13,171	*
58		24	10		-	5	0		100.0		0.0		0	10	32	15	25	14	3	0	0							17,982	*
57		24	11		-	4	0		99.7		No		0	4	27	8	23	24	11	3	0	0						23,163	*
56		23	11		-	5	0		97.7		No			1	20	3	14	27	23	10	2	0	0					29,022	*
55		23	12		-	4	0		89.5		No			0	13	1	5	19	29	22	9	2	0	0				35,480	*
54		22	12		-	5	0		68.9		No			0	8	0	1	8	22	30	21	8	2	0	0			42,190	*
53		22	13		-	4	0		41.5		No			0	4	0	0	2	10	25	31	20	7	1	0	0		18,688
		21	12		-	6	0		37.1		No				4	0	0	2	9	23	31	22	8	2	0			29,249	*
52		21	13		-	5	0		14.7		No				2		0	0	2	11	26	31	20	7	1	0		19,665
		22	14		-	3	0		15.7		No			0	2		0	0	3	11	26	31	20	6	1	0		33,478	*
51		21	14		-	4	0		4.4		No				1		0	0	0	3	14	29	31	17	5	0	0	22,307
		20	13		-	6	0		4.0		No				1			0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	35,417	*
50		20	14		-	5	0		0.8		No				0			0	0	0	4	15	31	31	15	3	0	22,756
		21	15		-	3	0		0.9		No				0				0	1	4	16	30	30	15	3	0	37,965	*
49		20	15		-	4	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	6	20	34	28	10	1	41,885	*
		21	16		-	2	0		0.2		No				0					0	1	6	20	33	28	10	1	19,774	*
48		19	15		-	5	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	1	10	26	36	22	4	23,138
		20	16		-	3	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	9	27	36	22	4	38,429	*
47		19	16		-	4	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	4	16	35	34	11	31,228	*
		18	15		-	6	0		Out		No										0	0	4	16	36	33	11	27,743	*
46		18	16		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	1	7	27	42	22	31,297	*
		19	17		-	3	0		Out		No											0	1	9	29	41	19	23,350	*
45		18	17		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	4	20	45	31	27,351	*
		17	16		-	6	0		Out		No												0	3	16	44	36	22,207	*
44		17	17		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	11	41	48	44,034	*
43		17	18		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	6	34	60	37,659	*
42		16	18		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	25	72	31,339	*
41		16	19		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	18	81	25,563	*
40		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No													0	0	12	87	20,044	*
39		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No														0	8	92	15,290	*
38		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No														0	5	95	11,487	*
37		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No														0	3	97	8,106	*
36		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	5,706	*
35		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	3,908	*
34		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	2,542	*
33		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	1,685	*
32		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	932	*
5	-31								Out		No																100	1,447	*

Total:									22.2	%	0.3	%	1	2	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	15	21	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	+1.3
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	-1.0
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+0.1
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+0.0
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	*-0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	*-0.0
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	*+0.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	+0.0
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+0.0
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	-0.0
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Colorado vs Anaheim	-1.1-1.0-0.8+0.2+0.3+1.3
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0*-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0-0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

73	-83								100
72		32	4		-	3	0		88	13
71		32	5		-	2	0		100
70		31	5		-	3	0		88	9	4
69		31	6		-	2	0		83	13	5
68		30	6		-	3	0		74	15	9		1		1
67		29	6		-	4	0		66	17	14		1		1
66		29	7		-	3	0		52	20	24	1	0		4
65		28	7		-	4	0		39	25	27	1	1		6
64		28	8		-	3	0		24	27	33	4	4		7	0	0
63		27	8		-	4	0		11	26	35	8	7	0	11	1	1	0
62		27	9		-	3	0		5	19	30	14	13	1	13	3	3	0	0
61		26	9		-	4	0		1	12	20	19	18	2	15	5	5	0	1
60		25	9		-	5	0		0	5	11	20	23	4	13	9	11	1	2	0	0		0
59		25	10		-	4	0		0	2	4	16	23	10	8	13	15	4	6	0	1	0	0		0
58		24	10		-	5	0		0	0	1	9	17	15	4	11	15	9	13	2	3	0	0		0
57		24	11		-	4	0			0	0	4	10	17	1	7	9	14	18	6	10	1	3	0	0	0
56		23	11		-	5	0				0	1	4	15	0	3	3	11	14	13	19	5	9	0	2	0	0
55		23	12		-	4	0					0	1	12	0	1	0	5	5	14	16	13	18	4	8	2	0	0	0
54		22	12		-	5	0					0	0	7		0	0	1	1	7	6	15	18	12	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
53		22	13		-	4	0					0	0	4		0		0	0	2	1	8	7	16	19	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
52		21	13		-	5	0					0	0	2				0		0	0	2	1	10	9	18	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
51		21	14		-	4	0						0	1				0		0		0	0	3	2	6	14	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0
50		20	14		-	5	0							0						0		0		1	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
49		20	15		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
		19	14		-	6	0							0								0		0		0	0	1	5	12	19	24	20	12	4	1	0	0
48		19	15		-	5	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	4	11	19	25	21	13	5	1	0
		20	16		-	3	0							0										0			0	0	1	4	11	19	25	22	12	4	1	0
47		19	16		-	4	0							0														0	0	1	3	9	19	26	24	14	4	1
46		18	16		-	5	0																					0	0	0	1	3	9	20	28	25	12	3
45		18	17		-	4	0																							0	0	1	3	10	23	32	24	7
		17	16		-	6	0																								0	1	3	10	23	32	24	7
44		17	17		-	5	0																								0	0	1	4	14	30	35	16
43		17	18		-	4	0																									0	0	1	7	23	39	29
42		16	18		-	5	0																										0	0	3	14	39	43
41		16	19		-	4	0																										0	0	1	8	33	58
40		15	19		-	5	0																											0	0	4	26	70
39		15	20		-	4	0																												0	2	18	80
38		14	20		-	5	0																												0	1	12	87
37		14	21		-	4	0																												0	0	9	91
36		13	21		-	5	0																													0	4	95
35		13	22		-	4	0																														3	97
34		12	22		-	5	0																														2	98
33		12	23		-	4	0																														1	99
32		11	23		-	5	0																														1	99
31		11	24		-	4	0																														0	100
30		10	24		-	5	0																														1	99
29		10	25		-	4	0																															100
28		10	26		-	3	0																														1	99
5	-27																																					100

Total:									0	0	1	1	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	7	8	9	12