Nashville Predators Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Lost to St. Louis 0-2, playoff odds down 6.9 to 58.5%

11 points 5 3-1 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	-6.9		-1.8		-0.7
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	-6.2		-2.4		-0.7
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	-0.5				-0.0
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	*+0.2				*+0.0
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	*+0.2		-0.1		+0.0
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3	*-0.1
Phoenix 4 Dallas 2	*+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1		+0.0
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5			+0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5			*+0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+6.1+5.9+4.7-1.2-2.0-7.3		+1.1+1.2+0.9-0.4-0.3-1.3		+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.1-0.2-0.7
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Columbus vs Calgary					-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0
St. Louis vs Detroit					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Nashville finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

75	-89								In		Yes		100															257	*
74		30	6		-	3	0		In		98.3	%	99			1												180	*
73		29	6		-	4	0		In		96.6		98	1		0												354	*
72		29	7		-	3	0		In		97.1		99	1		0												618	*
71		28	7		-	4	0		In		93.1		97	2	0	1												1,097	*
70		28	8		-	3	0		In		90.3		95	4	0	1												1,858	*
69		27	8		-	4	0		In		83.0		93	6	0	2												2,840	*
68		27	9		-	3	0		In		74.3		87	10	0	3												4,446	*
67		26	9		-	4	0		In		62.8		80	15	0	5	0											6,661	*
66		25	9		-	5	0		In		48.9		71	20	1	8	0											9,479	*
65		25	10		-	4	0		In		34.2		59	27	1	11	0											13,158	*
64		24	10		-	5	0		In		20.5		48	32	3	16	1	0										17,874	*
63		24	11		-	4	0		In		10.0		32	37	5	22	3	0										22,988	*
62		23	11		-	5	0		In		3.7		20	37	9	27	6	0	0									29,008	*
61		23	12		-	4	0		In		1.0		10	33	13	31	11	1	0									35,391	*
60		22	12		-	5	0		In		0.2		4	24	17	30	20	4	0	0								41,756	*
59		22	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	15	18	25	28	11	2	0	0							48,157	*
58		21	13		-	5	0		99.9		No		0	7	17	16	32	21	6	1	0	0						53,957	*
57		21	14		-	4	0		99.7		No		0	3	13	8	28	30	14	3	0	0						32,664	*
		20	13		-	6	0		99.4		No		0	2	12	6	24	32	18	5	1	0	0					25,385	*
56		20	14		-	5	0		96.9		No			1	8	2	14	30	29	13	3	0	0					22,446
		21	15		-	3	0		96.9		No			1	8	2	15	31	28	12	3	0	0					37,959	*
55		20	15		-	4	0		89.2		No			0	5	1	6	21	32	24	9	2	0					36,221	*
		19	14		-	6	0		84.2		No			0	4	0	4	16	31	29	13	3	0	0				25,323	*
54		19	15		-	5	0		61.6		No			0	2	0	1	6	21	32	26	10	2	0	0			35,142	*
		20	16		-	3	0		68.6		No			0	3	0	1	9	24	32	22	8	1	0				25,909	*
53		19	16		-	4	0		37.8		No			0	1	0	0	2	10	25	33	21	7	1	0	0		22,426
		18	15		-	6	0		33.6		No				1	0	0	1	8	23	32	24	9	2	0	0		36,424	*
52		18	16		-	5	0		12.6		No				0		0	0	2	10	25	33	21	7	1	0		20,506
		19	17		-	3	0		13.5		No				0		0	0	2	11	26	31	21	7	1	0		34,360	*
51		18	17		-	4	0		4.2		No				0			0	0	4	14	29	31	17	4	0		19,361	*
		17	16		-	6	0		3.0		No				0		0	0	0	3	12	27	32	20	6	1	0	30,511	*
50		17	17		-	5	0		0.6		No				0			0	0	1	4	16	31	31	15	3	0	43,928	*
49		17	18		-	4	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	6	20	34	28	10	1	37,837	*
48		16	18		-	5	0		0.0		No									0	0	2	10	27	36	21	4	31,588	*
47		16	19		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	4	17	36	33	10	25,524	*
46		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	1	9	29	42	19	19,722	*
45		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	4	20	44	32	15,225	*
44		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	11	42	46	11,193	*
43		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	6	33	60	8,371	*
42		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	26	71	5,846	*
41		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	18	80	3,882	*
40		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No														1	13	86	2,568	*
39		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	8	92	1,578	*
38		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No															5	95	996	*
37		11	24		-	4	0		Out		No															4	96	631	*
36		10	24		-	5	0		Out		No															4	96	359	*
35		10	25		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	226	*
34		9	25		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	124	*
11	-33								Out		No																100	186	*

Total:									58.5	%	3.4	%	6	7	6	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	+1.5
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	+1.3
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	-0.1
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	-0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	-0.0
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*+0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*-0.0
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	*-0.0
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Los Angeles	-1.2-1.2-1.0+0.3+0.4+1.5
Columbus vs Calgary	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.0+0.1-0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

75	-89								100
74		30	6		-	3	0		98	1					1
73		29	6		-	4	0		97	2	1				0
72		29	7		-	3	0		97	1	1				0
71		28	7		-	4	0		93	4	2		0		1
70		28	8		-	3	0		90	5	4		0		1
69		27	8		-	4	0		83	10	6		0		2
68		27	9		-	3	0		74	13	10	0	0		3
67		26	9		-	4	0		63	17	15	0	0		5		0
66		25	9		-	5	0		49	22	20	1	1		8	0	0
65		25	10		-	4	0		34	25	26	2	1	0	11	0	0
64		24	10		-	5	0		21	27	29	4	3	0	16	1	1		0
63		24	11		-	4	0		10	22	30	8	5	0	20	2	3	0	0
62		23	11		-	5	0		4	16	24	13	9	0	23	4	6	0	0		0
61		23	12		-	4	0		1	9	16	17	12	1	22	9	11	0	1	0	0
60		22	12		-	5	0		0	4	8	16	13	3	17	13	18	2	4	0	0		0
59		22	13		-	4	0		0	1	3	12	12	6	9	16	22	6	11	0	2		0		0
58		21	13		-	5	0			0	1	7	9	8	3	13	19	12	19	2	6	0	1		0	0
57		21	14		-	4	0			0	0	2	4	8	1	6	10	16	23	9	15	1	4	0	0	0
		20	13		-	6	0			0	0	3	5	8	1	7	10	16	22	8	14	1	4	0	0	0	0
56		20	14		-	5	0				0	1	2	7	0	2	3	12	15	16	22	6	11	1	3	0	0
		21	15		-	3	0					1	2	6	0	2	2	12	14	16	22	6	12	1	3	0	0
55		20	15		-	4	0					0	1	5		1	0	5	5	17	18	14	20	4	8	2	0	0	0
		19	14		-	6	0					0	0	4		0	0	4	3	13	15	16	23	6	12	3	1	0
54		19	15		-	5	0					0	0	2		0	0	1	1	7	6	17	19	14	19	10	3	1	0	0	0
		18	14		-	7	0					0	0	2		0		1	0	5	5	15	16	15	22	13	5	1	0	0
53		19	16		-	4	0					0	0	1		0	0	0	0	2	1	9	7	18	20	20	13	6	2	0	0
		18	15		-	6	0						0	1		0		0	0	1	1	8	6	17	18	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
52		18	16		-	5	0							0				0		0	0	2	1	9	8	17	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
		19	17		-	3	0							0				0		0	0	2	1	10	8	17	22	20	12	6	2	1	0	0
51		18	17		-	4	0							0				0		0		0	0	3	1	6	13	20	22	17	10	5	1	0	0	0
50		17	17		-	5	0							0						0		0		1	0	1	3	9	17	22	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
49		17	18		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
48		16	18		-	5	0																	0			0	0	1	4	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0
47		16	19		-	4	0																					0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	5	1
46		15	19		-	5	0																						0	0	1	3	9	20	28	25	13	2
45		15	20		-	4	0																							0	0	1	3	10	24	31	24	8
44		14	20		-	5	0																								0	0	1	4	14	30	34	17
43		14	21		-	4	0																										0	1	7	22	40	30
42		13	21		-	5	0																									0		0	3	14	39	44
41		13	22		-	4	0																											0	1	8	34	58
40		12	22		-	5	0																												0	4	27	69
39		12	23		-	4	0																												0	2	18	81
38		11	23		-	5	0																													1	13	86
37		11	24		-	4	0																													0	9	91
36		10	24		-	5	0																													0	6	94
35		10	25		-	4	0																														4	96
34		9	25		-	5	0																														2	98
33		9	26		-	4	0																														2	98
11	-32																																					100

Total:									3	3	4	3	3	2	4	3	5	3	5	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2