Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays Florida, playoff odds up 0.05 to 54.2%

9 points 3 2-3 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5					-0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6					-0.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+6.2+5.4+4.8-1.3-1.5-7.4		+0.9+0.8+0.5-0.2-0.3-1.0		+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.1-0.1-0.7
Winnipeg vs Florida	+6.1+5.8+4.6-1.4-1.4-7.3		+0.8+0.9+0.6-0.3-0.3-1.0		+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.2-0.2-0.8
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay					+0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs Montreal			+0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs Florida					+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina					+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

74	-89								In		99.0	%	100															311	*
73		30	6		-	4	0		In		98.7		100	0														238	*
72		30	7		-	3	0		In		96.9		100															423	*
71		29	7		-	4	0		In		94.7		98	2		0												751	*
70		29	8		-	3	0		In		89.3		97	3		1												1,268	*
69		28	8		-	4	0		In		83.0		95	4	0	1												2,135	*
68		28	9		-	3	0		In		73.4		90	8	0	2												3,181	*
67		27	9		-	4	0		In		62.5		85	11	0	3	0											4,960	*
66		26	9		-	5	0		In		48.3		77	17	1	6	0											7,332	*
65		26	10		-	4	0		In		33.5		67	23	1	9	0											10,259	*
64		25	10		-	5	0		In		20.1		54	29	3	13	1	0										14,128	*
63		25	11		-	4	0		In		9.6		40	35	5	18	1	0										18,621	*
62		24	11		-	5	0		In		3.5		26	39	9	23	3	0										23,899	*
61		24	12		-	4	0		In		0.9		14	36	14	28	7	1	0									29,898	*
60		23	12		-	5	0		In		0.1		6	28	20	30	14	2	0									36,675	*
59		23	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		2	18	23	27	23	6	1	0	0							42,577	*
58		22	13		-	5	0		100.0		No		0	10	23	19	29	15	4	0	0							48,486	*
57		22	14		-	4	0		99.8		No		0	4	19	10	28	26	11	2	0	0						53,472	*
56		21	14		-	5	0		98.2		No			1	13	3	18	30	24	9	2	0	0					21,566
		22	15		-	3	0		98.2		No		0	1	14	4	18	30	23	9	2	0	0					35,946	*
55		21	15		-	4	0		92.6		No			0	10	1	8	24	30	19	6	1	0	0				34,331	*
		20	14		-	6	0		88.6		No			0	7	0	5	19	32	25	10	2	0	0				25,597	*
54		20	15		-	5	0		71.0		No			0	5	0	1	9	24	32	21	7	1	0	0			22,913
		21	16		-	3	0		70.8		No			0	5	0	2	9	24	31	21	7	1	0				38,130	*
53		20	16		-	4	0		41.0		No			0	2	0	0	2	11	26	32	20	6	1	0			41,021	*
		21	17		-	2	0		41.4		No				2	0	0	2	11	25	31	20	7	1	0			19,623	*
52		19	16		-	5	0		15.8		No			0	1		0	0	3	12	28	32	18	5	1	0		21,741
		20	17		-	3	0		16.6		No				1		0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0		36,185	*
51		19	17		-	4	0		4.8		No				0			0	1	4	16	30	30	15	4	0	0	19,897
		18	16		-	6	0		4.2		No				0			0	0	3	14	27	31	18	5	1	0	34,072	*
50		18	17		-	5	0		0.8		No				0			0	0	1	5	17	31	30	14	3	0	48,791	*
49		18	18		-	4	0		0.1		No				0					0	1	7	21	34	27	9	1	42,948	*
48		17	18		-	5	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	27	36	21	4	36,810	*
47		17	19		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	4	17	36	33	10	30,737	*
46		16	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	1	9	28	42	20	25,035	*
45		16	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	3	19	43	34	19,775	*
44		15	20		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	1	11	41	47	15,150	*
43		15	21		-	4	0		Out		No													0	6	33	60	11,241	*
42		14	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	25	72	8,077	*
41		14	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	18	81	5,702	*
40		13	22		-	5	0		Out		No													0	0	11	88	3,799	*
39		13	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	7	93	2,619	*
38		12	23		-	5	0		Out		No														0	5	95	1,701	*
37		12	24		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	1,021	*
36		11	24		-	5	0		Out		No															2	98	598	*
35		11	25		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	333	*
34		10	25		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	214	*
33		10	26		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	116	*
32		9	26		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	67	*
9	-31								Out		No																100	130	*

Total:									54.2	%	2.5	%	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+0.1
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+0.0
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	*-0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	*-0.0
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.0
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3	*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Florida	-1.3-1.2-1.0+0.3+0.4+1.5
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-1.2-1.2-1.0+0.2+0.3+1.5
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.1-0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.1+0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-89								100
75		31	5		-	4	0		97	3
74		31	6		-	3	0		99	1
73		30	6		-	4	0		99	1	0
72		30	7		-	3	0		97	3
71		29	7		-	4	0		95	3	2				0
70		29	8		-	3	0		89	7	3				1
69		28	8		-	4	0		83	12	4		0		1
68		28	9		-	3	0		73	17	7	0	0		2	0
67		27	9		-	4	0		63	23	11	0	0		3	0	0
66		26	9		-	5	0		48	29	16	1	1		6	0	0
65		26	10		-	4	0		34	33	21	2	1		8	0	0
64		25	10		-	5	0		20	34	25	4	3	0	12	1	1		0
63		25	11		-	4	0		10	30	26	9	5	0	16	2	1		0
62		24	11		-	5	0		3	22	23	15	9	0	18	5	3	0	0
61		24	12		-	4	0		1	13	16	20	13	2	18	10	7	0	1		0
60		23	12		-	5	0		0	6	8	21	16	4	14	16	12	2	2	0	0
59		23	13		-	4	0		0	2	2	16	15	8	8	19	16	7	6	0	1	0	0		0
58		22	13		-	5	0			0	1	9	11	12	3	16	14	15	12	3	3	0	0		0
57		22	14		-	4	0			0	0	4	6	13	1	10	8	20	16	10	10	1	2	0	0	0
56		21	14		-	5	0			0	0	1	3	11	0	4	2	16	11	19	16	7	8	1	2	0	0
55		21	15		-	4	0					0	1	8	0	1	0	8	4	20	14	17	15	5	6	1	0	0
		20	14		-	6	0					0	1	7		0	0	5	3	16	12	19	17	7	9	2	0	0
54		20	15		-	5	0					0	0	4		0		1	0	8	4	20	15	17	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
		21	16		-	3	0					0	0	5		0	0	2	0	9	5	19	14	16	15	9	3	1	0	0
53		20	16		-	4	0					0	0	3		0		0	0	3	1	12	7	21	16	18	12	5	2	0	0	0
		19	15		-	6	0					0	0	2				0	0	1	0	8	4	19	15	20	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
52		19	16		-	5	0					0	0	1				0		0	0	3	1	11	7	16	21	19	13	6	2	1	0	0
51		19	17		-	4	0						0	0						0		1	0	4	1	6	14	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
		18	16		-	6	0							0						0		0	0	3	1	4	10	18	23	20	12	6	2	0	0	0
50		18	17		-	5	0							0						0		0		1	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
49		18	18		-	4	0							0										0	0	0	0	2	6	12	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
48		17	18		-	5	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	4	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0
47		17	19		-	4	0																				0	0	0	1	3	9	18	26	24	14	5	1
46		16	19		-	5	0																							0	1	3	9	19	28	25	13	3
45		16	20		-	4	0																								0	0	3	10	23	32	24	8
44		15	20		-	5	0																									0	1	4	14	30	35	16
43		15	21		-	4	0																									0	0	1	7	22	40	29
42		14	21		-	5	0																										0	0	3	14	38	44
41		14	22		-	4	0																											0	1	8	34	57
40		13	22		-	5	0																												0	3	27	69
39		13	23		-	4	0																												0	2	18	80
38		12	23		-	5	0																													1	12	87
37		12	24		-	4	0																													0	8	92
36		11	24		-	5	0																														4	96
35		11	25		-	4	0																														5	95
34		10	25		-	5	0																														1	99
33		10	26		-	4	0																														3	97
32		9	26		-	5	0																														1	99
9	-31																																					100

Total:									3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3