Florida Panthers Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays at Winnipeg, playoff odds up 0.1 to 72.4%

12 points 6 2-0 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+5.5		+1.5		+0.6
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	*+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.2
San Jose 2 Chicago 0			-0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)					-0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5					+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Florida	-6.4-1.0-0.7+4.1+4.9+5.2		-2.2-0.8-0.4+1.6+1.8+1.9		-0.7-0.2-0.1+0.5+0.5+0.6
Philadelphia vs Florida	-6.2-1.0-1.0+4.1+4.5+5.1		-2.2-0.6-0.6+1.4+1.9+1.9		-0.7-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.5+0.6
Buffalo vs Montreal					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina					+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1-0.3-0.2
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay					+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Florida finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

74	-92								In		99.5	%	100															1,711	*
73		29	8		-	3	0		In		97.9		100	0		0												1,216	*
72		28	8		-	4	0		In		96.3		99	1		0												1,999	*
71		27	8		-	5	0		In		93.2		98	2		0												3,239	*
70		27	9		-	4	0		In		88.6		97	3	0	0												5,015	*
69		26	9		-	5	0		In		82.5		94	5	0	1												7,223	*
68		26	10		-	4	0		In		73.9		91	8	0	1	0											10,214	*
67		25	10		-	5	0		In		61.4		85	12	0	2	0											14,082	*
66		25	11		-	4	0		In		47.4		78	18	1	4	0											18,577	*
65		24	11		-	5	0		In		33.1		67	25	2	6	0											23,964	*
64		24	12		-	4	0		In		19.1		54	33	3	9	0	0										30,208	*
63		23	12		-	5	0		In		9.1		40	40	7	13	1											18,154	*
		24	13		-	3	0		In		9.4		40	40	6	13	1	0										18,006	*
62		23	13		-	4	0		In		3.2		26	43	11	18	2	0										42,945	*
61		22	13		-	5	0		In		0.7		14	40	18	22	6	0	0									18,366
		23	14		-	3	0		In		0.8		14	40	17	22	5	0	0									30,374	*
60		22	14		-	4	0		In		0.2		6	32	24	25	11	2	0									20,287
		21	13		-	6	0		In		0.1		6	31	24	25	12	2	0									33,615	*
59		21	14		-	5	0		In		0.0		2	21	28	24	19	5	1	0								38,116	*
		20	13		-	7	0		100.0	%	0.0		2	19	29	23	21	7	1	0	0							19,240	*
58		21	15		-	4	0		100.0		No		0	12	29	18	26	13	3	0	0							22,292
		20	14		-	6	0		100.0		No		0	10	28	16	26	16	4	0	0							18,597
		22	16		-	2	0		100.0		No		0	11	28	17	25	14	3	0	0							19,466	*
57		20	15		-	5	0		99.8		No		0	4	25	9	25	24	11	2	0	0						22,713
		21	16		-	3	0		99.8		No		0	4	25	9	25	24	11	2	0	0						37,979	*
56		20	16		-	4	0		98.6		No			2	19	4	17	28	21	7	1	0						34,032	*
		19	15		-	6	0		97.5		No			1	17	2	14	28	25	10	2	0	0					26,115	*
55		19	16		-	5	0		90.1		No			0	12	1	6	20	30	22	8	1	0					29,474	*
		20	17		-	3	0		91.0		No			0	12	1	6	21	30	21	7	1	0	0				28,339	*
54		19	17		-	4	0		70.4		No			0	7	0	1	8	23	31	21	7	1	0	0			53,888	*
53		18	17		-	5	0		39.4		No			0	3		0	2	9	25	32	21	7	1	0	0		18,234
		19	18		-	3	0		40.7		No			0	3	0	0	2	10	25	31	20	7	1	0			30,669	*
52		18	18		-	4	0		15.6		No				2		0	0	2	11	26	31	20	6	1	0	0	43,338	*
51		17	18		-	5	0		3.9		No				1			0	0	3	13	28	32	18	5	1	0	36,675	*
50		17	19		-	4	0		0.8		No				0				0	1	4	16	31	31	15	3	0	30,649	*
49		16	19		-	5	0		0.2		No				0					0	1	6	20	33	27	10	1	24,963	*
48		16	20		-	4	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	9	27	36	22	5	19,561	*
47		15	20		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	3	16	35	34	11	15,128	*
46		15	21		-	4	0		Out		No											0	1	7	28	42	22	11,406	*
45		14	21		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	3	18	43	35	8,045	*
44		14	22		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	10	40	49	5,637	*
43		13	22		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	5	32	63	4,014	*
42		13	23		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	2	24	74	2,555	*
41		12	23		-	5	0		Out		No														1	15	84	1,647	*
40		12	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	12	87	1,026	*
39		11	24		-	5	0		Out		No														0	6	94	619	*
38		11	25		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	369	*
37		10	25		-	5	0		Out		No															3	97	197	*
36		10	26		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	109	*
12	-35								Out		No																100	213	*

Total:									72.4	%	6.9	%	14	13	11	8	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	-1.2
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+0.1
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.1
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+0.0
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.0
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*-0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Florida	+1.5+0.3+0.2-1.0-1.1-1.2
Philadelphia vs Florida	+1.4+0.3+0.2-0.9-1.1-1.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.1*+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

81	-92								100
80		32	4		-	4	0		92	8
77	-79								100
76		30	6		-	4	0		100	0
75		30	7		-	3	0		100	0
74		29	7		-	4	0		99	1
73		29	8		-	3	0		98	2	0				0
72		28	8		-	4	0		96	3	1				0
71		27	8		-	5	0		93	5	2				0
70		27	9		-	4	0		89	8	3	0	0		0
69		26	9		-	5	0		82	12	5	0	0		1	0
68		26	10		-	4	0		74	17	8	0	0		1	0	0
67		25	10		-	5	0		61	24	12	0	0		2	0	0
66		25	11		-	4	0		47	30	18	1	1		3	0	0
65		24	11		-	5	0		33	34	23	2	2		5	0	0
64		24	12		-	4	0		19	35	28	5	3	0	8	1	0	0	0
63		23	12		-	5	0		9	31	29	11	6	0	11	2	1	0	0
62		23	13		-	4	0		3	22	25	18	11	1	14	4	2	0	0
61		22	13		-	5	0		1	13	17	23	16	2	14	8	5	0	0		0
60		22	14		-	4	0		0	6	8	23	19	5	11	14	10	2	2	0	0
59		21	14		-	5	0		0	2	3	18	18	10	6	17	13	6	5	0	1	0	0		0
58		21	15		-	4	0			0	1	11	14	15	3	15	13	13	10	2	3	0	0		0
		20	14		-	6	0			0	1	10	13	15	2	14	12	14	12	3	3	0	0		0
57		20	15		-	5	0			0	0	4	8	17	0	8	6	19	15	9	9	1	2	0	0	0
		21	16		-	3	0			0	0	4	8	17	0	9	7	18	15	10	9	1	2	0	0	0
56		20	16		-	4	0				0	1	3	15	0	3	2	14	10	18	15	7	8	1	2	0	0
55		19	16		-	5	0					0	1	11		1	0	6	3	17	12	18	16	6	7	2	0	0	0
54		19	17		-	4	0					0	0	6		0	0	1	0	8	4	19	14	17	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
53		18	17		-	5	0					0	0	3		0		0	0	2	1	9	5	20	15	19	15	8	3	1	0	0
52		18	18		-	4	0						0	2				0		0	0	2	1	11	6	15	21	20	13	7	2	1	0	0
51		17	18		-	5	0							1						0		0	0	3	1	5	12	19	22	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
50		17	19		-	4	0							0								0		1	0	1	3	8	15	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
49		16	19		-	5	0							0										0		0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	11	5	1	0	0
48		16	20		-	4	0							0										0			0	0	1	3	9	18	25	23	14	6	1	0
47		15	20		-	5	0																					0	0	0	3	8	17	25	25	16	5	1
46		15	21		-	4	0																							0	0	2	8	19	28	26	14	3
45		14	21		-	5	0																							0	0	0	2	9	22	32	25	9
44		14	22		-	4	0																									0	0	3	13	29	35	19
43		13	22		-	5	0																										0	1	6	21	41	31
42		13	23		-	4	0																										0	0	3	14	39	45
41		12	23		-	5	0																												1	7	31	61
40		12	24		-	4	0																												0	4	26	71
39		11	24		-	5	0																												0	1	18	80
38		11	25		-	4	0																													1	12	88
37		10	25		-	5	0																														8	92
36		10	26		-	4	0																													1	4	95
35		10	27		-	3	0																														5	95
34		9	27		-	4	0																														6	94
33		9	28		-	3	0																														8	92
12	-32																																					100

Total:									7	7	6	6	6	6	4	4	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1