Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Beat Philadelphia 5-1, playoff odds up 6 to 46.9%

9 points 4 4-1 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+6.1		+0.5		+0.6
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+5.7		+0.3		+0.6
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*-0.3
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*+0.2				*+0.0
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	*+0.1
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	*+0.1				+0.0
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	*+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)					-0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5					+0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6					-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-7.3-1.6-1.6+4.7+5.9+6.1		-0.7-0.2*-0.1+0.5+0.5+0.6		-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.5+0.6+0.6
Philadelphia vs Florida					+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto					-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Winnipeg vs Florida					+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

74	-87								In		99.3	%	100															147	*
73		31	6		-	2	0		In		99.0		99			1												101	*
72		30	6		-	3	0		In		97.4		99	1														191	*
71		29	6		-	4	0		In		95.1		99	1		0												329	*
70		29	7		-	3	0		In		90.6		98	2		0												679	*
69		28	7		-	4	0		In		85.6		95	3		1												1,076	*
68		28	8		-	3	0		In		75.6		92	6	0	2												1,757	*
67		27	8		-	4	0		In		63.2		86	10	0	4												2,891	*
66		27	9		-	3	0		In		49.1		78	15	1	6	0											4,364	*
65		26	9		-	4	0		In		33.9		68	21	1	10	0											6,551	*
64		25	9		-	5	0		In		20.8		55	28	2	13	1											9,579	*
63		25	10		-	4	0		In		9.9		41	34	4	19	1	0										13,160	*
62		24	10		-	5	0		In		3.6		27	37	9	24	3	0	0									17,862	*
61		24	11		-	4	0		In		0.9		15	35	14	28	7	1	0									22,985	*
60		23	11		-	5	0		In		0.1		6	28	19	31	14	2	0	0								29,141	*
59		23	12		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		2	18	21	28	23	7	1	0	0							35,443	*
58		22	12		-	5	0		100.0		0.0		0	9	21	20	30	16	3	0	0							42,014	*
57		22	13		-	4	0		99.9		No		0	4	19	12	29	25	9	2	0	0						28,107	*
		21	12		-	6	0		99.7		No		0	3	16	8	27	29	14	3	0	0						20,020	*
56		21	13		-	5	0		98.2		No		0	1	13	4	18	31	24	9	2	0	0					52,961	*
55		21	14		-	4	0		92.7		No			0	8	1	8	24	31	20	6	1	0					34,651	*
		20	13		-	6	0		88.7		No			0	7	0	5	20	32	24	9	2	0	0				23,521	*
54		20	14		-	5	0		71.1		No			0	4	0	2	9	24	32	21	7	1	0	0			22,844
		21	15		-	3	0		72.0		No			0	4	0	2	10	25	31	20	7	1	0				37,977	*
53		20	15		-	4	0		44.5		No			0	2	0	0	3	12	27	31	18	5	1	0			23,467
		19	14		-	6	0		39.9		No			0	2		0	2	11	25	31	21	7	1	0	0		38,224	*
52		19	15		-	5	0		17.8		No				1		0	0	3	13	28	31	17	5	1	0		41,298	*
		18	14		-	7	0		14.1		No				1		0	0	2	11	25	31	21	7	1	0	0	19,982	*
51		19	16		-	4	0		5.1		No				0		0	0	0	4	15	30	30	15	4	0	0	22,294
		18	15		-	6	0		4.4		No				0			0	0	4	14	28	31	18	5	0	0	36,466	*
50		18	16		-	5	0		0.7		No				0				0	1	5	17	31	30	14	3	0	20,501
		19	17		-	3	0		0.8		No				0				0	1	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	34,539	*
49		18	17		-	4	0		0.2		No				0				0	0	2	9	24	34	24	7	1	26,891	*
		17	16		-	6	0		0.1		No				0					0	1	6	19	33	29	11	1	22,732	*
48		17	17		-	5	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	28	35	20	4	44,161	*
47		17	18		-	4	0		Out		No										0	1	4	17	36	33	10	37,796	*
46		16	18		-	5	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	1	8	30	41	19	31,283	*
45		16	19		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	4	20	43	32	25,372	*
44		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	11	41	46	20,036	*
43		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	6	34	59	15,244	*
42		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	26	71	11,460	*
41		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	19	80	8,145	*
40		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	0	11	88	5,631	*
39		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No														0	8	92	3,923	*
38		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	5	95	2,625	*
37		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	1,648	*
36		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	1,016	*
35		11	24		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	596	*
34		10	24		-	5	0		Out		No															0	100	349	*
9	-33								Out		No																100	470	*

Total:									46.9	%	1.5	%	4	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	-1.2
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	-1.2
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	*+0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	+0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	-0.1
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+0.0
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*-0.0
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	-0.0
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	+1.5+0.3+0.3-1.0-1.2-1.2
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.0-0.0*+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

75	-87								100
74		31	5		-	3	0		98	3
73		31	6		-	2	0		99						1
72		30	6		-	3	0		97	2	1
71		29	6		-	4	0		95	4	1				0
70		29	7		-	3	0		91	7	2				0
69		28	7		-	4	0		86	10	3				1
68		28	8		-	3	0		76	16	6		0		2
67		27	8		-	4	0		63	22	10	0	0		4
66		27	9		-	3	0		49	29	15	0	1		6	0	0
65		26	9		-	4	0		34	34	20	2	1		9	0	0
64		25	9		-	5	0		21	34	24	4	2	0	12	1	1
63		25	10		-	4	0		10	31	26	8	4	0	16	2	1	0	0
62		24	10		-	5	0		4	24	22	15	8	0	18	5	3	0	0		0
61		24	11		-	4	0		1	14	15	20	12	2	18	10	7	0	1		0
60		23	11		-	5	0		0	6	7	20	14	4	14	16	12	2	2	0	0		0
59		23	12		-	4	0		0	2	3	15	14	7	8	20	17	7	6	0	1	0	0		0
58		22	12		-	5	0		0	0	1	9	10	11	3	17	15	15	13	3	3	0	0	0	0
57		22	13		-	4	0			0	0	4	6	12	1	10	8	21	16	10	10	1	2	0	0	0
56		21	13		-	5	0			0	0	1	3	10	0	4	2	16	11	19	16	7	8	1	2	0	0
55		21	14		-	4	0					0	1	7	0	1	0	8	4	20	14	17	15	5	6	1	0	0
		20	13		-	6	0					0	1	6		1	0	5	3	17	13	19	17	7	9	2	0	0
54		20	14		-	5	0					0	0	3		0	0	1	0	8	4	19	14	18	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
		21	15		-	3	0					0	0	5		0	0	2	1	12	6	21	16	15	13	6	2	1	0	0
53		20	15		-	4	0					0	0	2		0		0	0	2	1	11	6	20	16	19	14	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
52		19	15		-	5	0						0	1				0	0	0	0	3	1	11	6	16	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
		20	16		-	3	0						0	1				0		0	0	3	1	12	7	16	21	19	13	6	2	0	0	0
51		19	16		-	4	0							0				0		0		0	0	4	1	6	13	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
		18	15		-	6	0							0						0		0	0	4	1	5	12	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
50		18	16		-	5	0						0	0								0		1	0	1	3	9	17	22	22	15	7	2	1	0
		19	17		-	3	0							0								0	0	1	0	1	3	8	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
49		18	17		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	1	2	7	14	22	23	18	9	3	1	0
		17	16		-	6	0							0										0		0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
48		17	17		-	5	0							0										0		0	0	0	1	4	10	19	24	22	13	5	1	0
47		17	18		-	4	0																				0	0	0	1	3	9	18	25	24	14	5	1
46		16	18		-	5	0							0															0	0	0	3	9	19	28	25	12	3
45		16	19		-	4	0																							0	0	1	3	10	23	32	24	7
44		15	19		-	5	0																									0	1	4	14	30	34	16
43		15	20		-	4	0																										0	1	7	23	40	29
42		14	20		-	5	0																										0	0	3	15	39	43
41		14	21		-	4	0																											0	1	8	35	56
40		13	21		-	5	0																												0	4	25	70
39		13	22		-	4	0																												0	2	20	79
38		12	22		-	5	0																													1	13	86
37		12	23		-	4	0																													0	9	91
36		11	23		-	5	0																													0	6	94
35		11	24		-	4	0																														3	97
34		10	24		-	5	0																														2	98
33		10	25		-	4	0																														1	99
9	-32																																					100

Total:									2	2	2	3	3	3	2	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4