Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Beat Canadiens 5-4, playoff odds up 7.4 to 32.3%

83 points 22-5 27-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	+7.4		+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hurricanes vs Penguins	-2.3-0.6-0.5+0.6+0.8+2.3		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Capitals vs Rangers	+1.8+0.3+0.3-1.0-0.6-1.6		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Sabres vs Senators	-1.6-0.4-0.4*+0.3+0.6+1.5		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Lightning vs Devils	+0.3+0.5+0.1-0.0*-0.1-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Maple Leafs finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

146		21	-	0	0		-	0	In		17	76		7												59
139	-140								In			100														5	*
138		15	-	4	0		-	2	In			43	14	43												7	*
137		15	-	4	1		-	1	In			40	7	40	13											15	*
136		14	-	5	1		-	1	In			29	19	35	13	3										31	*
135		14	-	4	1		-	2	In			17	14	31	36	1										77	*
134		15	-	2	2		-	2	In			12	9	38	35	6										126	*
133		14	-	3	2		-	2	In			6	9	31	45	9	0									232	*
132		13	-	4	2		-	2	In			3	10	21	50	15	2									455	*
131		13	-	4	3		-	1	In			2	9	14	48	25	3									777	*
130		13	-	3	3		-	2	In			1	6	9	44	35	5	0								1,319	*
129		12	-	4	3		-	2	In			0	3	5	38	42	11	1								2,067	*
128		12	-	3	3		-	3	In			0	2	3	29	47	18	1								3,356	*
127		11	-	4	3		-	3	99.9	%		0	1	1	19	48	27	3	0							4,973	*
126		11	-	4	4		-	2	99.8				1	0	13	44	36	6	0							7,091	*
125		11	-	3	4		-	3	99.5				0	0	6	37	44	11	1							9,896	*
124		10	-	4	4		-	3	98.6				0	0	3	28	49	17	1	0						13,320	*
123		10	-	4	5		-	2	96.9				0	0	2	20	50	25	3	0						17,407	*
122		10	-	3	5		-	3	93.5				0		0	12	47	34	6	0						22,359	*
121		9	-	4	5		-	3	87.7				0		0	7	39	41	12	1	0					27,274	*
120		9	-	3	5		-	4	80.7						0	4	30	47	18	1	0					32,312	*
119		9	-	3	6		-	3	70.0						0	2	21	47	26	4	0	0				37,526	*
118		8	-	4	6		-	3	57.4						0	1	14	43	35	7	0	0				42,217	*
117		8	-	3	6		-	4	44.1						0	0	8	36	42	13	1	0				45,943	*
116		8	-	3	7		-	3	30.9							0	4	27	45	21	3	0				49,129	*
115		7	-	4	7		-	3	20.6							0	2	19	44	29	6	0	0			50,102	*
114		7	-	3	7		-	4	11.7							0	1	11	39	37	11	1	0			50,532	*
113		7	-	3	8		-	3	6.1								0	6	31	42	19	3	0			48,690	*
112		6	-	4	8		-	3	2.9								0	3	21	43	27	6	0	0		46,391	*
111		6	-	3	8		-	4	1.1								0	1	13	38	35	11	1	0		42,225	*
110		6	-	3	9		-	3	0.4									0	7	31	40	19	3	0		37,492	*
109		6	-	2	9		-	4	0.1									0	3	21	41	28	6	0	0	32,845	*
108		5	-	3	9		-	4	0.0									0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0	27,619	*
107		5	-	3	10		-	3	0.0									0	0	7	29	41	20	2	0	22,542	*
106		5	-	2	10		-	4	Out										0	4	21	42	29	5	0	17,456	*
105		4	-	3	10		-	4	Out										0	2	12	39	37	10	1	13,417	*
104		4	-	3	11		-	3	Out										0	0	7	31	44	15	1	9,786	*
103		4	-	2	11		-	4	Out											0	3	22	47	25	3	6,963	*
102		4	-	2	12		-	3	Out											0	1	14	44	34	6	4,838	*
101		3	-	3	12		-	3	Out												1	9	39	41	11	3,317	*
100		3	-	2	12		-	4	Out												0	4	31	48	17	2,131	*
99		3	-	2	13		-	3	Out												0	2	24	50	24	1,295	*
98		3	-	1	13		-	4	Out													1	15	50	34	783	*
97		2	-	2	13		-	4	Out													0	8	48	45	465	*
96		2	-	2	14		-	3	Out													0	6	42	52	258	*
95		2	-	1	14		-	4	Out														3	29	68	133	*
94		2	-	1	15		-	3	Out														1	31	67	67	*
93		1	-	2	15		-	3	Out														3	21	76	38	*
92		1	-	1	15		-	4	Out															13	88	16	*
83	-91								Out																100	70	*

Total:									32.3	%	0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	18	13	9	5	2	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	-1.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hurricanes vs Penguins	+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2
Capitals vs Rangers	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Sabres vs Senators	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Lightning vs Devils	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Flames vs Sharks	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

146		21	-	0	0		-	0	2	15	76				7
140		16	-	4	0		-	1			100
139		14	-	7	0		-	0			75	25
138		15	-	4	0		-	2				43	14		43
137		15	-	4	1		-	1				40		7	40		13
136		14	-	5	1		-	1				29	10	10	29	6	13		3
135		14	-	4	1		-	2			1	16	4	10	18	13	35	1	1
134		15	-	2	2		-	2			2	10	3	6	20	18	32	3	6
133		14	-	3	2		-	2				6	2	6	11	20	32	13	8	0	0
132		13	-	4	2		-	2				3	2	8	6	15	33	16	13	1	2
131		13	-	4	3		-	1				2	1	8	2	12	21	28	20	5	2	0
130		13	-	3	3		-	2				1	0	6	1	8	10	34	23	13	4	1	0
129		12	-	4	3		-	2				0	0	3	0	5	4	34	21	22	9	3	1	0
128		12	-	3	3		-	3				0		2		3	2	28	13	34	11	6	1	0
127		11	-	4	3		-	3				0		1		1	0	19	6	42	12	15	2	1	0
126		11	-	4	4		-	2						1		0	0	13	2	42	9	27	4	3	0	0
125		11	-	3	4		-	3						0		0		6	1	37	4	39	4	7	0	0	0	0
124		10	-	4	4		-	3						0		0		3	0	28	2	47	3	14	1	0	0	0	0
123		10	-	4	5		-	2						0		0		2	0	20	1	49	2	23	1	1	1	0	0
122		10	-	3	5		-	3						0				0		12	0	47	1	33	1	2	2	1	0	0
121		9	-	4	5		-	3						0				0		7	0	39	0	41	1	2	4	3	1	0	0
120		9	-	3	5		-	4										0		4		30	0	47	0	2	5	7	4	1	0	0
119		9	-	3	6		-	3										0		2		21	0	47	0	1	5	11	9	3	0	0
118		8	-	4	6		-	3										0		1		14		43	0	1	4	13	16	8	1	0	0
117		8	-	3	6		-	4										0		0		8		36	0	0	3	12	22	15	4	0	0
116		8	-	3	7		-	3												0		4		27		0	1	8	24	25	9	1	0	0
115		7	-	4	7		-	3												0		2		19		0	0	5	21	32	17	4	0	0
114		7	-	3	7		-	4												0		1		11		0	0	2	15	33	26	9	2	0
113		7	-	3	8		-	3														0		6			0	1	9	29	33	17	4	0	0
112		6	-	4	8		-	3														0		3			0	0	4	21	35	26	9	1	0
111		6	-	3	8		-	4														0		1				0	2	13	31	33	16	4	0
110		6	-	3	9		-	3																0				0	1	6	23	35	26	8	1	0
109		6	-	2	9		-	4																0					0	3	14	32	33	15	3	0
108		5	-	3	9		-	4																0					0	1	7	24	36	24	7	1	0
107		5	-	3	10		-	3																0						0	3	16	34	32	13	2	0
106		5	-	2	10		-	4																						0	1	9	26	37	22	4	0	0
105		4	-	3	10		-	4																							0	4	18	37	31	9	1	0
104		4	-	3	11		-	3																							0	1	11	32	39	15	2	0
103		4	-	2	11		-	4																								0	5	23	42	24	5	0
102		4	-	2	12		-	3																								0	2	14	39	34	10	1
101		3	-	3	12		-	3																									1	9	33	40	16	2
100		3	-	2	12		-	4																									0	4	23	42	25	5
99		3	-	2	13		-	3																									0	2	18	41	32	7
98		3	-	1	13		-	4																										1	10	35	40	14
97		2	-	2	13		-	4																										0	5	27	49	20
96		2	-	2	14		-	3																											3	24	45	28
95		2	-	1	14		-	4																											2	14	41	44
94		2	-	1	15		-	3																											1	12	37	49
93		1	-	2	15		-	3																												11	32	58
92		1	-	1	15		-	4																												6	38	56
91		1	-	1	16		-	3																													71	29
83	-90																																					100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	10	0	17	0	0	1	4	8	12	12	11	8	6	3	1	0	0