Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.6 to 28.4%

92 points 22-9 23-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-0.8		-0.1
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.4		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Flames vs Sharks	+8.7+2.6+2.2-3.1-3.4-8.2		+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	-0.5-0.5-0.3+0.5*+0.3+0.5
Oilers vs Blues	+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.3-0.4		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Flames finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

152		20	-	0	0		-	0	In		66	2		32												59
145	-148								In					100												11	*
144		15	-	3	1		-	1	In		13	13		75												8	*
143		14	-	4	1		-	1	In		3	3		95												37	*
142		13	-	5	1		-	1	In		7	3		88	1											68	*
141		13	-	4	1		-	2	In		1	1		97	1											145	*
140		14	-	2	2		-	2	In		2	1		94	3											240	*
139		13	-	3	2		-	2	In		0	0		95	4											492	*
138		13	-	3	3		-	1	In		0	1	0	90	9	0										851	*
137		12	-	4	3		-	1	In		0	0		86	13	0	0									1,432	*
136		12	-	3	3		-	2	In			0	0	77	21	2	0									2,324	*
135		11	-	4	3		-	2	In			0	0	68	27	4	0									3,769	*
134		11	-	3	3		-	3	100.0	%				54	36	9	1		0							5,389	*
133		11	-	3	4		-	2	In				0	39	43	15	3	0								7,610	*
132		10	-	4	4		-	2	100.0				0	25	42	25	7	1	0							11,106	*
131		10	-	3	4		-	3	99.8				0	14	36	34	14	2	0							14,641	*
130		9	-	4	4		-	3	99.1				0	6	26	37	23	7	1	0						19,328	*
129		9	-	4	5		-	2	96.4				0	2	14	33	32	15	3	0	0					24,329	*
128		9	-	3	5		-	3	90.3					1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0					30,121	*
127		8	-	4	5		-	3	78.3				0	0	3	13	30	33	17	4	0	0				35,362	*
126		8	-	4	6		-	2	60.9					0	1	6	21	34	27	10	2	0				40,648	*
125		8	-	3	6		-	3	41.0				0	0	0	2	11	28	34	19	5	0	0			45,205	*
124		7	-	4	6		-	3	23.8						0	1	5	18	34	29	11	2	0			48,542	*
123		7	-	3	6		-	4	11.3						0	0	2	9	27	36	21	5	0			50,763	*
122		7	-	3	7		-	3	4.5							0	0	4	18	35	31	11	1			51,938	*
121		6	-	4	7		-	3	1.5								0	1	9	29	38	20	3	0		50,934	*
120		6	-	3	7		-	4	0.4								0	0	4	19	39	31	7	0		48,745	*
119		6	-	3	8		-	3	0.1									0	1	11	34	40	13	0		45,030	*
118		5	-	4	8		-	3	0.0									0	0	6	25	45	22	1		40,368	*
117		5	-	3	8		-	4	0.0									0	0	2	17	46	33	2		35,126	*
116		5	-	3	9		-	3	Out										0	1	10	41	45	3		30,140	*
115		5	-	2	9		-	4	Out										0	0	5	34	54	7		24,581	*
114		4	-	3	9		-	4	Out											0	3	25	61	11		19,455	*
113		4	-	3	10		-	3	Out											0	1	17	65	17	0	15,029	*
112		4	-	2	10		-	4	Out												0	11	64	24	0	10,984	*
111		4	-	2	11		-	3	Out												0	7	61	31	0	7,904	*
110		3	-	3	11		-	3	Out												0	4	55	41	0	5,491	*
109		3	-	2	11		-	4	Out													2	47	50	1	3,668	*
108		3	-	2	12		-	3	Out													1	39	58	1	2,291	*
107		3	-	1	12		-	4	Out													0	31	66	3	1,330	*
106		2	-	2	12		-	4	Out														23	73	4	878	*
105		2	-	2	13		-	3	Out														19	71	11	535	*
104		2	-	1	13		-	4	Out														12	74	14	240	*
103		1	-	2	13		-	4	Out														14	68	18	125	*
102		2	-	1	15		-	2	Out														5	75	20	65	*
101		1	-	2	15		-	2	Out															69	31	29	*
100		1	-	1	15		-	3	Out															70	30	10	*
99		1	-	1	16		-	2	Out															50	50	4	*
98		1	-	0	16		-	3	Out															33	67	3	*
97		0	-	2	17		-	1	Out																100	2	*
92		0	-	0	20		-	0	Out															7	93	59

Total:									28.4	%	0	0	0	3	4	5	7	9	11	13	15	16	13	3	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	+0.1
Canucks 3 Blues 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Flames vs Sharks	-1.0-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.4+0.9
Oilers vs Blues	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

152	20	-	0	0		-	0	32	34	2				32
148	16	-	4	0		-	0							100
147	16	-	3	0		-	1								100
145	16	-	2	1		-	1							78	22
144	15	-	3	1		-	1		13	13				75
143	14	-	4	1		-	1		3		3			81	14
142	13	-	5	1		-	1		7	1	1			78	10	1
141	13	-	4	1		-	2		1		1			77	19	1
140	14	-	2	2		-	2		2	0	0			71	23	3
139	13	-	3	2		-	2		0	0	0			65	30	4
138	13	-	3	3		-	1		0	0	0	0	0	53	37	9	0	0
137	12	-	4	3		-	1		0		0			43	43	13	0	0		0
136	12	-	3	3		-	2				0	0		32	45	20	1	2		0
135	11	-	4	3		-	2				0	0		23	45	26	2	4		0
134	11	-	3	3		-	3							14	40	32	4	9	0	1				0
133	11	-	3	4		-	2					0		7	32	34	8	15	0	3		0
132	10	-	4	4		-	2					0	0	3	22	31	12	24	1	7		1		0	0
131	10	-	3	4		-	3						0	1	13	21	15	32	2	14	0	2		0
130	9	-	4	4		-	3						0	0	6	12	14	33	3	23	0	7		1	0
129	9	-	4	5		-	2						0	0	2	5	9	28	5	31	0	15		3	0	0
128	9	-	3	5		-	3							0	1	2	6	17	6	34	1	25	0	8	1	0
127	8	-	4	5		-	3						0		0	0	2	8	5	29	1	33	0	17	4	0	0
126	8	-	4	6		-	2								0	0	1	3	3	19	2	33	0	27	10	2	0
125	8	-	3	6		-	3						0		0	0	0	1	1	9	2	28	0	34	19	5	0	0
124	7	-	4	6		-	3										0	0	0	3	1	18	1	34	29	11	2	0
123	7	-	3	6		-	4										0	0	0	1	1	9	1	27	36	21	5	0
122	7	-	3	7		-	3												0	0	0	4	1	17	35	31	11	1	0
121	6	-	4	7		-	3													0	0	1	0	9	28	38	20	3	0
120	6	-	3	7		-	4													0	0	0	0	4	19	38	31	8	0	0
119	6	-	3	8		-	3															0	0	1	10	32	40	16	1	0
118	5	-	4	8		-	3																0	0	5	22	42	26	4	0	0
117	5	-	3	8		-	4																0	0	2	13	37	36	10	2	0	0
116	5	-	3	9		-	3																	0	0	6	28	41	19	5	1	0
115	5	-	2	9		-	4																	0	0	2	17	38	28	11	2	0	0
114	4	-	3	9		-	4																		0	1	9	30	34	19	6	1	0	0
113	4	-	3	10		-	3																			0	4	20	33	28	12	3	0
112	4	-	2	10		-	4																			0	1	10	27	33	21	6	1	0
111	4	-	2	11		-	3																				0	5	18	32	29	12	3	0
110	3	-	3	11		-	3																				0	2	10	26	33	21	7	1
109	3	-	2	11		-	4																				0	1	4	18	31	30	13	3	0
108	3	-	2	12		-	3																					0	2	11	25	34	21	6	0
107	3	-	1	12		-	4																					0	0	5	17	34	30	12	1
106	2	-	2	12		-	4																							2	11	27	39	17	4	0
105	2	-	2	13		-	3																							1	4	22	33	31	7	1
104	2	-	1	13		-	4																							0	3	14	30	36	13	3	1
103	1	-	2	13		-	4																									6	22	44	21	6
102	2	-	1	15		-	2																									2	20	46	23	8	2
101	1	-	2	15		-	2																										3	52	24	21
100	1	-	1	15		-	3																											20	40	40
99	1	-	1	16		-	2																												50	50
98	1	-	0	16		-	3																												33	67
97	0	-	2	17		-	1																													50	50
92	0	-	0	20		-	0																												3	22	75

Total:								0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	4	1	7	0	9	0	11	13	14	13	9	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0