How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5 -0.1
Flyers 4 Islanders 3 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Sabres vs Senators-0.4-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Hurricanes vs Penguins-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Capitals vs Rangers+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Senators finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-OTL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
13422-00-0In17141949259
13019-20-1In1001
12817-40-1In1001
12616-51-0In50502*
12517-21-2In1144449*
12417-22-1In628561118*
12316-32-1In48682025*
12214-51-292.9%1165026770*
12115-32-290.69463591127*
12014-42-285.5540411310241*
11913-52-273.232545234440*
11814-33-261.3119413171776*
11713-43-249.9010393712101,278*
11613-33-334.307274121301,878*
11512-43-321.93194030813,033*
11412-44-212.00111333815204,445*
11312-34-36.006264023506,397*
11211-44-32.40216393210108,966*
11111-45-20.80193139183012,126*
11011-35-30.30421402771015,995*
10910-45-30.102133536131020,197*
1089-55-30.00072740213024,845*
10710-36-30.00031939317029,793*
1069-46-3Out0111353914135,009*
1059-36-4Out006274421139,727*
1049-37-3Out003184532343,756*
1038-47-3Out01114141646,694*
1028-37-4Out00633511048,708*
1017-47-4Out00325561549,593*
1007-48-3Out0118582248,341*
997-38-4Out0112573047,008*
987-39-3Out007533943,519*
976-49-3Out04484839,661*
966-39-4Out02415734,674*
956-310-3Out01356429,844*
945-39-5Out1287124,723*
935-310-4Out0227820,124*
925-311-3Out0188215,703*
915-211-4Out0138712,122*
904-311-4Out9918,848*
894-312-3Out6946,476*
884-212-4Out5954,508*
873-312-4Out3972,981*
863-313-3Out3971,928*
853-213-4Out1991,125*
843-214-3Out199701*
832-213-5Out0100385*
822-214-4Out0100252*
812-215-3Out100131*
802-115-4Out29855*
68-79Out100126*
Total:0.6%000000013611193327737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

ThursdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Sabres vs Senators+0.4+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.5
Oilers vs Blues+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-OTL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
13422-00-01731051437122
13019-20-1100
12817-40-1100
12616-51-05050
12517-21-2114444
12417-22-16285611
12316-32-1486820
12214-51-21165026141
12115-32-2946135244
12014-42-25404113631
11913-52-232545058950
11814-33-211941031016820
11713-43-201039028191650
11613-33-3072701621261020
11512-43-331903173220510
11412-44-20111011131301220
11312-34-306006253422610
11211-44-3020316323014300
11111-45-201018253523710
11011-35-3000316323014300
10910-45-30019253523710
1089-55-300041633311320
10710-36-30019263623500
1069-46-30041835311010
1059-36-4021130381820
1049-37-3001522402750
1038-47-30214373791
1028-37-40183045151
1017-47-40042347233
1007-48-30021546316
997-38-40019413910
987-39-3005344416
976-49-302274723
966-39-401204732
956-310-30144541
945-39-5094249
935-310-4063658
925-311-3043066
915-211-4022474
904-311-412079
894-312-311486
884-212-401090
873-312-40793
863-313-30694
853-213-40397
843-214-3298
832-213-5199
822-214-40100
812-215-3100
802-115-4298
68-79100
Total:000000000000000012461015232116