St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Lost to Canucks 2-3, playoff odds down 6.1 to 11.4%

85 points 22-5 24-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Canucks 3 Blues 2	-5.5		-0.5
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-0.7		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers vs Blues	-4.2-1.9-1.8+1.3+1.2+4.5		-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Sharks	-0.2-0.0-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	-0.2-0.2+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blues finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

151		22	-	0	0		-	0	In		44	56														59
143	-146								In			100														3	*
142		16	-	4	1		-	1	In		20	60		20												5	*
141		16	-	3	1		-	2	In			83	17													12	*
140		16	-	3	2		-	1	In			67	15	19												27	*
139		15	-	4	2		-	1	In			47	13	40												62	*
138		15	-	3	2		-	2	In		1	38	28	31	2											134	*
137		14	-	4	2		-	2	In			28	24	44	4											225	*
136		14	-	4	3		-	1	In			16	22	51	11	1										441	*
135		14	-	3	3		-	2	In			6	24	52	16	2	0									735	*
134		13	-	4	3		-	2	In			4	18	43	28	7	1									1,186	*
133		13	-	3	3		-	3	In			1	15	33	36	13	2	0								1,908	*
132		12	-	4	3		-	3	In			1	10	23	37	22	6	0								2,893	*
131		12	-	4	4		-	2	99.8	%		0	6	13	33	32	13	2	0	0						4,435	*
130		12	-	3	4		-	3	99.1			0	4	6	27	34	21	6	1	0						6,447	*
129		11	-	4	4		-	3	96.6				2	2	15	33	31	14	3	0						8,895	*
128		11	-	4	5		-	2	90.4				1	1	7	24	34	24	8	1	0					12,178	*
127		11	-	3	5		-	3	77.9				0	0	2	13	30	32	17	4	1	0				16,037	*
126		10	-	4	5		-	3	59.2				0	0	1	6	20	33	28	11	2	0				20,318	*
125		9	-	5	5		-	3	38.4				0	0	0	2	10	26	34	21	6	1	0			24,970	*
124		10	-	3	6		-	3	21.2				0		0	0	4	17	32	31	14	3	0			29,993	*
123		9	-	4	6		-	3	9.3				0			0	1	8	23	35	24	7	1			35,054	*
122		9	-	3	6		-	4	3.5				0			0	0	3	14	32	33	15	2	0		39,808	*
121		9	-	3	7		-	3	1.0								0	1	7	23	38	25	6	0		43,918	*
120		8	-	4	7		-	3	0.2								0	0	3	14	35	36	12	0		46,793	*
119		8	-	3	7		-	4	0.1									0	1	7	27	42	22	1		48,078	*
118		8	-	3	8		-	3	0.0									0	0	3	19	43	33	1	0	49,218	*
117		7	-	4	8		-	3	Out										0	1	11	39	45	3		48,597	*
116		7	-	3	8		-	4	Out										0	0	6	32	56	6		46,621	*
115		7	-	3	9		-	3	Out											0	3	24	64	9	0	43,556	*
114		6	-	4	9		-	3	Out											0	1	16	68	15	0	39,123	*
113		6	-	3	9		-	4	Out											0	0	10	69	21	0	35,118	*
112		6	-	3	10		-	3	Out												0	6	65	29	0	29,990	*
111		5	-	3	9		-	5	Out												0	3	60	37	0	24,845	*
110		5	-	3	10		-	4	Out												0	2	54	44	0	20,386	*
109		5	-	3	11		-	3	Out												0	1	46	52	1	15,806	*
108		5	-	2	11		-	4	Out													0	39	59	2	12,114	*
107		4	-	3	11		-	4	Out													0	31	66	3	8,802	*
106		4	-	3	12		-	3	Out													0	23	71	5	6,436	*
105		4	-	2	12		-	4	Out														19	74	7	4,469	*
104		4	-	2	13		-	3	Out														12	76	12	2,962	*
103		3	-	3	13		-	3	Out														9	75	16	1,936	*
102		3	-	2	13		-	4	Out														5	72	22	1,185	*
101		3	-	2	14		-	3	Out														5	69	27	709	*
100		2	-	2	13		-	5	Out														2	61	38	424	*
99		3	-	1	15		-	3	Out														1	55	44	237	*
98		2	-	2	15		-	3	Out															48	52	134	*
97		2	-	1	15		-	4	Out														2	38	61	61	*
96		2	-	1	16		-	3	Out															42	58	24	*
95		1	-	2	16		-	3	Out															57	43	7	*
94		1	-	1	16		-	4	Out															29	71	7	*
93		2	-	1	19		-	0	Out																100	2	*
92		1	-	1	18		-	2	Out															50	50	2	*
85		0	-	0	22		-	0	Out																100	59

Total:									11.4	%	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	13	18	31	11	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.8
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Blues	+0.8+0.3+0.3-0.3-0.3-0.8
Flames vs Sharks	+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

151		22	-	0	0		-	0	17	27	56
146		18	-	3	0		-	1			100
143	-144											100
142		16	-	4	1		-	1		20	40	20			20
141		16	-	3	1		-	2			33	50	17
140		16	-	3	2		-	1			41	26	4	11	15	4
139		15	-	4	2		-	1			18	29	10	3	32	8
138		15	-	3	2		-	2		1	8	30	23	4	20	11	2
137		14	-	4	2		-	2			2	25	21	4	26	17	4
136		14	-	4	3		-	1			2	14	14	8	22	28	10	0	1
135		14	-	3	3		-	2			1	5	13	10	20	33	15	1	2		0
134		13	-	4	3		-	2			0	4	7	10	15	28	25	2	7		1
133		13	-	3	3		-	3			0	1	6	9	8	25	30	6	13		2		0
132		12	-	4	3		-	3				1	3	8	4	19	28	10	21	1	6		0
131		12	-	4	4		-	2				0	1	5	1	12	20	13	31	1	13		2		0	0
130		12	-	3	4		-	3				0	1	3	0	6	13	14	32	3	21	0	6		1	0
129		11	-	4	4		-	3					0	2	0	2	5	10	28	5	30	0	14		3	0
128		11	-	4	5		-	2					0	1	0	1	2	5	18	6	34	1	24	0	8	1	0
127		11	-	3	5		-	3					0	0		0	0	2	8	5	28	1	32	0	18	4	1	0
126		10	-	4	5		-	3					0	0		0	0	1	3	3	18	2	33	0	28	11	2	0
125		9	-	5	5		-	3						0		0		0	1	1	8	2	26	0	34	20	6	1	0
124		10	-	3	6		-	3						0				0	0	0	3	1	16	1	32	30	14	3	0
123		9	-	4	6		-	3						0					0	0	1	0	7	1	24	35	24	8	1
122		9	-	3	6		-	4						0					0	0	0	0	3	0	14	32	33	15	2	0
121		9	-	3	7		-	3													0	0	1	0	7	23	37	25	6	0	0
120		8	-	4	7		-	3														0	0	0	3	14	34	36	13	1	0
119		8	-	3	7		-	4															0	0	1	7	25	41	24	2	0	0
118		8	-	3	8		-	3															0	0	0	3	16	39	35	6	1	0	0
117		7	-	4	8		-	3																	0	1	8	31	43	14	2	0	0
116		7	-	3	8		-	4																		0	3	21	45	24	6	1	0
115		7	-	3	9		-	3																		0	1	11	39	32	13	3	0	0
114		6	-	4	9		-	3																		0	0	5	29	36	22	7	1	0	0
113		6	-	3	9		-	4																			0	2	18	34	30	13	3	0	0
112		6	-	3	10		-	3																			0	1	9	27	35	21	6	1	0
111		5	-	3	9		-	5																				0	4	18	33	30	13	2	0
110		5	-	3	10		-	4																				0	2	10	27	34	21	6	1	0
109		5	-	3	11		-	3																				0	0	5	19	33	29	12	2	0
108		5	-	2	11		-	4																					0	2	11	28	34	20	5	0	0
107		4	-	3	11		-	4																					0	1	5	19	35	29	10	1	0
106		4	-	3	12		-	3																					0	0	2	11	30	35	17	3	0
105		4	-	2	12		-	4																					0	0	1	6	22	37	27	6	1
104		4	-	2	13		-	3																							0	3	14	35	33	13	2	0
103		3	-	3	13		-	3																							0	1	7	25	38	23	6	0
102		3	-	2	13		-	4																								0	3	17	39	30	9	1
101		3	-	2	14		-	3																								0	1	11	33	37	17	2
100		2	-	2	13		-	5																									1	6	22	42	23	6
99		2	-	2	14		-	4																										2	16	42	30	11
98		2	-	2	15		-	3																										2	13	29	39	17
97		2	-	1	15		-	4																											5	25	43	28
96		2	-	1	16		-	3																											4	8	42	46
95		1	-	2	16		-	3																												29	71
94		1	-	1	16		-	4																												14	29	57
93		2	-	1	19		-	0																													50	50
92		1	-	1	18		-	2																													50	50
85		0	-	0	22		-	0																														100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	4	0	6	9	12	15	16	11	8	6	4	2	1	0	0	0