Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.002 to 0.3%

77 points 18-8 28-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Chances based on how well the Avalanche finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

140		21	-	0	0		-	0	In		3	2		95												59
135		16	-	5	0		-	0	In						100											1
133		16	-	4	1		-	0	In					67	33											3	*
132		15	-	5	1		-	0	In					67	33											3	*
131		15	-	4	1		-	1	In						33	50	17									6	*
130		15	-	3	1		-	2	In					14	29	29	21	7								28	*
129		14	-	4	1		-	2	96.8	%				3	11	45	26	11	2	2						62	*
128		14	-	4	2		-	1	97.7					1	9	42	30	15	2							132	*
127		14	-	3	2		-	2	86.2						5	20	33	27	11	2						254	*
126		13	-	4	2		-	2	72.5						2	9	28	34	21	5	1					455	*
125		13	-	4	3		-	1	50.1						0	4	16	30	32	16	2					741	*
124		13	-	3	3		-	2	30.7							1	7	23	32	26	10	1	0			1,394	*
123		12	-	4	3		-	2	14.6						0	0	3	11	28	34	18	5	0			2,128	*
122		12	-	3	3		-	3	5.7							0	1	5	18	34	29	11	2	0		3,457	*
121		11	-	4	3		-	3	1.6								0	1	9	26	37	21	5	0		4,874	*
120		11	-	4	4		-	2	0.5									0	3	17	34	32	12	1		6,879	*
119		11	-	3	4		-	3	0.0									0	1	8	27	38	22	4		9,721	*
118		10	-	4	4		-	3	Out										0	4	17	38	33	8		13,493	*
117		10	-	4	5		-	2	Out										0	1	10	32	42	15		17,361	*
116		10	-	3	5		-	3	Out											0	4	24	46	25	0	22,196	*
115		9	-	4	5		-	3	Out											0	2	16	46	36	0	27,467	*
114		9	-	3	5		-	4	Out											0	1	9	42	48	0	32,436	*
113		9	-	3	6		-	3	Out											0	0	5	35	59	0	37,686	*
112		8	-	4	6		-	3	Out												0	2	28	69	0	42,360	*
111		8	-	3	6		-	4	Out												0	1	21	77	0	45,898	*
110		8	-	3	7		-	3	Out												0	1	15	83	1	25,851	*
		7	-	4	6		-	4	Out													0	15	84	1	23,072	*
109		7	-	4	7		-	3	Out													0	11	88	1	50,798	*
108		7	-	3	7		-	4	Out													0	7	91	2	50,438	*
107		7	-	3	8		-	3	Out													0	4	92	4	48,957	*
106		6	-	4	8		-	3	Out													0	3	91	6	45,893	*
105		6	-	3	8		-	4	Out													0	2	89	9	42,147	*
104		6	-	3	9		-	3	Out														1	86	13	37,677	*
103		5	-	4	9		-	3	Out														0	82	17	32,716	*
102		5	-	3	9		-	4	Out														0	76	23	27,297	*
101		5	-	3	10		-	3	Out														0	69	31	22,270	*
100		5	-	2	10		-	4	Out														0	61	38	17,560	*
99		4	-	3	10		-	4	Out														0	55	45	13,432	*
98		4	-	3	11		-	3	Out														0	46	54	9,892	*
97		4	-	2	11		-	4	Out														0	39	61	7,107	*
96		4	-	2	12		-	3	Out															32	68	4,896	*
95		3	-	3	12		-	3	Out															26	74	3,160	*
94		3	-	2	12		-	4	Out															18	82	2,138	*
93		3	-	2	13		-	3	Out															13	87	1,299	*
92		2	-	3	13		-	3	Out															8	92	767	*
91		2	-	2	13		-	4	Out															6	94	423	*
90		2	-	2	14		-	3	Out															3	97	250	*
89		2	-	2	15		-	2	Out															2	98	132	*
88		1	-	2	14		-	4	Out															2	98	59	*
77	-87								Out																100	119	*

Total:									0.3	%	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	15	68	9	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	+0.1
Flyers 4 Islanders 3 (ot)	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lightning vs Devils	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

140		21	-	0	0		-	0		3		2			75	20
135		16	-	5	0		-	0									100
133		16	-	4	1		-	0								67	33
132		15	-	5	1		-	0								67	33
131		15	-	4	1		-	1									17	17	50		17
130		15	-	3	1		-	2								14	14	14	25	4	21		7
129		14	-	4	1		-	2								3	5	6	37	8	26		11		2	2
128		14	-	4	2		-	1								1	3	6	30	13	30	1	15		2
127		14	-	3	2		-	2									0	5	13	7	32	1	27		11	3
126		13	-	4	2		-	2										2	5	4	26	2	34		21	6	1
125		13	-	4	3		-	1										0	2	2	14	2	30	0	32	16	2
124		13	-	3	3		-	2											0	1	5	2	22	0	32	27	10	1	0
123		12	-	4	3		-	2										0	0	0	2	1	11	1	28	34	19	5	0
122		12	-	3	3		-	3											0		0	0	4	1	18	34	29	11	2	0
121		11	-	4	3		-	3													0	0	1	0	9	26	37	22	5	0
120		11	-	4	4		-	2															0	0	3	16	34	32	13	2	0
119		11	-	3	4		-	3															0	0	1	8	26	37	23	5	0	0
118		10	-	4	4		-	3																	0	3	15	35	33	11	2	0	0
117		10	-	4	5		-	2																	0	1	8	26	40	21	4	0	0
116		10	-	3	5		-	3																		0	3	16	37	31	11	2	0	0
115		9	-	4	5		-	3																		0	1	8	28	37	19	6	1	0
114		9	-	3	5		-	4																		0	0	3	18	35	29	12	2	0	0
113		9	-	3	6		-	3																		0	0	1	10	28	33	21	6	1	0
112		8	-	4	6		-	3																			0	0	4	19	33	30	12	2	0
111		8	-	3	6		-	4																				0	2	10	27	35	20	5	0	0
110		8	-	3	7		-	3																				0	0	5	19	35	29	10	1	0
109		7	-	4	7		-	3																				0	0	2	11	30	36	18	3	0	0
108		7	-	3	7		-	4																					0	1	5	21	37	27	8	1	0
107		7	-	3	8		-	3																						0	2	13	33	35	14	2	0	0
106		6	-	4	8		-	3																						0	1	7	26	39	23	4	0	0
105		6	-	3	8		-	4																						0	0	3	17	38	31	9	1	0
104		6	-	3	9		-	3																							0	1	10	32	38	16	3	0
103		5	-	4	9		-	3																							0	0	5	24	41	24	5	0
102		5	-	3	9		-	4																							0	0	2	16	39	31	10	1
101		5	-	3	10		-	3																								0	1	9	32	37	17	3
100		5	-	2	10		-	4																									0	5	25	39	25	5
99		4	-	3	10		-	4																									0	2	18	37	33	10
98		4	-	3	11		-	3																									0	1	11	33	38	17
97		4	-	2	11		-	4																										0	7	26	44	23
96		4	-	2	12		-	3																										0	4	19	44	33
95		3	-	3	12		-	3																										0	1	13	42	43
94		3	-	2	12		-	4																											0	9	37	54
93		3	-	2	13		-	3																											0	4	31	65
92		2	-	3	13		-	3																												2	25	73
91		2	-	2	13		-	4																												1	17	82
90		2	-	2	14		-	3																												0	11	89
89		2	-	2	15		-	2																												1	14	85
88		1	-	2	14		-	4																													3	97
87		1	-	2	15		-	3																													5	95
84	-86																																					100
83		0	-	2	17		-	2																													50	50
77	-82																																					100

Total:										0		0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	8	10	13	15	15	12	8	4	2