Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Beat Red Wings 4-1, playoff odds up 8.9 to 44.3%

93 points 23-9 23-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	+8.3		+0.6
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.6		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Flames vs Sharks	-0.6-0.3+0.2*+0.3+0.5+0.5
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	-0.5-0.3-0.5+0.6+0.3+0.4
Oilers vs Blues	+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4		+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Stars finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

156	21	-	0	0		-	0	In		75	25														59
150	17	-	3	1		-	0	In			100														1
149	15	-	5	0		-	1	In		100															1
148	16	-	3	1		-	1	In		13	88														8	*
147	15	-	4	1		-	1	In		8	92														12	*
146	16	-	2	2		-	1	In		21	76	3													34	*
145	15	-	3	2		-	1	In		9	79	12													68	*
144	14	-	4	2		-	1	In		4	84	10	2												119	*
143	14	-	3	2		-	2	In		5	76	16	3												250	*
142	13	-	4	2		-	2	In		1	68	27	4												441	*
141	13	-	4	3		-	1	In		1	62	28	9	0											812	*
140	13	-	3	3		-	2	In		1	53	32	14	0											1,335	*
139	12	-	4	3		-	2	In		0	43	36	19	1											2,035	*
138	12	-	3	3		-	3	In		0	33	38	26	3											3,264	*
137	11	-	4	3		-	3	In			22	40	33	5	0										4,907	*
136	11	-	4	4		-	2	In		0	15	35	39	10	1	0									7,138	*
135	11	-	3	4		-	3	In		0	9	30	41	18	2	0									9,776	*
134	10	-	4	4		-	3	In			4	24	40	26	6	0									13,441	*
133	10	-	4	5		-	2	In			2	16	33	35	12	2	0								17,350	*
132	10	-	3	5		-	3	100.0	%		1	10	23	39	21	5	0	0							22,066	*
131	9	-	4	5		-	3	99.9			0	6	14	36	31	11	2	0							27,631	*
130	9	-	4	6		-	2	99.3			0	3	7	27	36	21	6	1	0						32,792	*
129	9	-	3	6		-	3	97.0			0	1	2	16	34	31	13	3	0	0					37,352	*
128	8	-	4	6		-	3	90.9				0	1	7	24	35	23	8	1	0	0				41,778	*
127	8	-	3	6		-	4	79.4				0	0	3	14	31	32	16	4	0	0				46,699	*
126	8	-	3	7		-	3	62.1				0	0	1	6	21	34	26	10	2	0				48,754	*
125	7	-	4	7		-	3	42.1				0	0	0	2	11	28	34	19	5	0	0			50,393	*
124	7	-	3	7		-	4	23.7						0	1	5	18	34	29	11	2	0			50,341	*
123	7	-	3	8		-	3	11.2						0	0	2	9	27	35	21	5	0			49,063	*
122	6	-	4	8		-	3	4.5							0	0	4	17	35	31	11	1	0		46,260	*
121	6	-	3	8		-	4	1.5							0	0	1	9	28	38	21	3	0		42,356	*
120	6	-	3	9		-	3	0.4								0	0	4	19	39	31	7	0		37,646	*
119	6	-	2	9		-	4	0.1									0	1	11	34	41	12	0		32,498	*
118	5	-	3	9		-	4	0.0									0	0	5	25	47	21	1		27,459	*
117	5	-	3	10		-	3	Out										0	2	17	48	31	2		22,311	*
116	5	-	2	10		-	4	Out										0	1	11	43	41	5		17,466	*
115	4	-	3	10		-	4	Out											0	6	36	50	8		13,379	*
114	4	-	3	11		-	3	Out											0	3	28	56	13		9,774	*
113	4	-	2	11		-	4	Out											0	1	20	58	20		7,020	*
112	3	-	3	11		-	4	Out											0	0	14	58	27	0	4,975	*
111	3	-	3	12		-	3	Out												0	9	55	36	0	3,176	*
110	3	-	2	12		-	4	Out												0	5	48	47	0	2,055	*
109	3	-	2	13		-	3	Out												0	4	41	55	0	1,334	*
108	2	-	3	13		-	3	Out													2	38	60	1	800	*
107	2	-	2	13		-	4	Out													1	27	71	2	483	*
106	2	-	2	14		-	3	Out													1	21	73	5	229	*
105	2	-	2	15		-	2	Out														17	77	6	132	*
104	2	-	1	15		-	3	Out														19	73	8	62	*
103	2	-	0	15		-	4	Out														8	88	4	26	*
102	1	-	2	16		-	2	Out														13	69	19	16	*
101	1	-	1	16		-	3	Out															43	57	7	*
99	0	-	1	16		-	4	Out															100		1
93	0	-	0	21		-	0	Out															25	75	59

Total:								44.3	%	0	1	3	5	7	8	10	11	12	12	12	11	7	1	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-1.0
Canucks 3 Blues 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Blues	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

156	21	-	0	0		-	0	63	12	25
150	17	-	3	1		-	0			100
149	15	-	5	0		-	1		100
148	16	-	3	1		-	1		13	75	13
147	15	-	4	1		-	1		8	67	25
146	16	-	2	2		-	1	6	15	68	9	3
145	15	-	3	2		-	1		9	71	9	12
144	14	-	4	2		-	1		4	58	26	10		2
143	14	-	3	2		-	2	0	5	51	25	16		3
142	13	-	4	2		-	2	0	1	37	31	26	1	4	0
141	13	-	4	3		-	1		1	28	34	27	2	7	2	0
140	13	-	3	3		-	2		1	24	30	29	2	11	3	0
139	12	-	4	3		-	2		0	13	30	32	4	13	6	1
138	12	-	3	3		-	3		0	8	25	31	7	17	9	3	0
137	11	-	4	3		-	3			4	18	30	10	19	14	5	0	0
136	11	-	4	4		-	2		0	2	13	24	11	19	20	10	0	1		0
135	11	-	3	4		-	3		0	1	8	18	12	16	24	17	1	2		0
134	10	-	4	4		-	3			0	4	12	12	13	27	23	3	6	0	0
133	10	-	4	5		-	2			0	2	6	10	8	26	29	7	12	0	2		0
132	10	-	3	5		-	3			0	1	3	7	4	20	28	11	21	0	5		0		0
131	9	-	4	5		-	3			0	0	1	4	1	13	22	14	30	1	11	0	2		0
130	9	-	4	6		-	2				0	0	2	0	6	13	14	33	3	21	0	6		1	0
129	9	-	3	6		-	3				0	0	1	0	2	6	10	28	5	30	0	13		3	0	0
128	8	-	4	6		-	3					0	0	0	1	2	6	18	6	34	1	23	0	8	1	0	0
127	8	-	3	6		-	4					0	0		0	0	2	9	5	30	1	32	0	16	4	0	0
126	8	-	3	7		-	3						0		0	0	1	3	3	19	2	34	0	26	10	2	0
125	7	-	4	7		-	3						0		0	0	0	1	1	10	2	28	0	34	19	5	0	0
124	7	-	3	7		-	4										0	0	0	4	1	18	0	34	29	12	2	0
123	7	-	3	8		-	3										0	0	0	1	1	9	1	27	35	21	5	0	0
122	6	-	4	8		-	3											0	0	0	0	3	0	17	34	31	11	1	0
121	6	-	3	8		-	4												0	0	0	1	0	9	28	38	21	3	0
120	6	-	3	9		-	3													0	0	0	0	4	19	38	32	7	0	0
119	6	-	2	9		-	4															0	0	1	10	32	40	15	2	0
118	5	-	3	9		-	4															0	0	0	4	22	43	25	4	1	0
117	5	-	3	10		-	3																	0	2	13	39	34	10	2	0	0
116	5	-	2	10		-	4																	0	0	6	30	39	18	5	1	0
115	4	-	3	10		-	4																		0	2	19	37	28	11	2	0	0
114	4	-	3	11		-	3																		0	1	10	31	32	20	6	1	0
113	4	-	2	11		-	4																		0	0	4	20	33	28	12	2	0
112	3	-	3	11		-	4																			0	2	12	27	33	19	6	1	0
111	3	-	3	12		-	3																				0	5	18	33	27	13	3	0
110	3	-	2	12		-	4																				0	2	10	25	34	22	7	1
109	3	-	2	13		-	3																					1	6	17	31	30	14	2
108	2	-	3	13		-	3																					0	2	11	28	36	19	4	0
107	2	-	2	13		-	4																						1	5	20	37	27	9	1	0
106	2	-	2	14		-	3																						1	1	10	24	40	20	3	0
105	2	-	2	15		-	2																								6	30	33	23	7	1
104	2	-	1	15		-	3																							2		21	27	37	13
103	2	-	0	15		-	4																									4	23	50	23
102	1	-	2	16		-	2																									6	19	25	44	6
101	1	-	1	16		-	3																											29	57	14
99	0	-	1	16		-	4																											100
93	0	-	0	21		-	0																												10	36	54

Total:								0	0	0	1	2	1	1	3	4	3	7	1	9	1	11	0	12	12	12	10	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0