Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 37.4%

92 points 24-8 25-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-0.9		-0.1
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.7		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks vs Wild	+10.4+2.9+2.7-3.7-3.7-9.9		+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.7
Oilers vs Blues	+0.6+0.1+0.3-0.3-0.2-0.6		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	-0.6+0.1-0.3+0.3+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Sharks	-0.6+0.0-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ducks finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

155		21	-	0	0		-	0	In		81	19														59
148	-149								In		100															2	*
147		17	-	2	2		-	0	In		40	50	10													10	*
146		15	-	4	1		-	1	In		13	75	13													8	*
145		14	-	5	1		-	1	In		11	82	7													28	*
144		14	-	4	1		-	2	In		14	66	15	5												73	*
143		14	-	4	2		-	1	In		9	66	21	4												108	*
142		14	-	3	2		-	2	In		3	67	21	9												251	*
141		13	-	4	2		-	2	In		2	60	30	8												375	*
140		12	-	5	2		-	2	In		1	49	32	17	1											739	*
139		13	-	3	3		-	2	In		0	39	34	24	2	0										1,315	*
138		12	-	4	3		-	2	In		0	29	39	28	4	0										2,136	*
137		12	-	3	3		-	3	In		0	20	37	35	7	0										3,169	*
136		11	-	4	3		-	3	In			12	35	40	12	1										4,884	*
135		11	-	4	4		-	2	In		0	7	29	42	19	3	0									7,256	*
134		11	-	3	4		-	3	100.0	%		3	24	37	28	7	1	0	0							9,837	*
133		10	-	4	4		-	3	In			1	16	31	35	14	2	0								13,505	*
132		10	-	4	5		-	2	100.0			0	10	21	38	24	6	1	0	0						17,591	*
131		10	-	3	5		-	3	99.7			0	6	12	34	32	13	2	0	0						22,556	*
130		9	-	4	5		-	3	98.9			0	3	6	25	36	23	7	1	0						27,111	*
129		9	-	3	5		-	4	96.5				1	2	14	32	32	15	3	0	0					32,475	*
128		9	-	3	6		-	3	90.1				0	1	7	23	35	25	9	1	0					37,638	*
127		8	-	4	6		-	3	78.4				0	0	2	13	30	33	17	4	0	0				42,231	*
126		8	-	3	6		-	4	60.2				0	0	1	6	20	34	27	10	2	0				46,131	*
125		8	-	3	7		-	3	40.1				0		0	2	11	27	34	20	5	1	0			48,934	*
124		7	-	4	7		-	3	22.4						0	0	5	17	33	30	12	2	0			50,586	*
123		7	-	3	7		-	4	10.5							0	1	9	27	36	22	5	0	0		49,993	*
122		7	-	3	8		-	3	4.0							0	0	4	17	35	32	12	1	0		48,866	*
121		6	-	4	8		-	3	1.2							0	0	1	9	28	38	21	3	0		46,094	*
120		6	-	3	8		-	4	0.4								0	0	4	18	38	32	7	0		42,586	*
119		6	-	3	9		-	3	0.1								0	0	1	10	33	40	14	0		37,686	*
118		6	-	2	9		-	4	0.0									0	0	5	25	45	23	1		32,728	*
117		5	-	3	9		-	4	0.0									0	0	2	16	45	34	3		27,008	*
116		5	-	3	10		-	3	Out										0	1	9	41	45	5		22,096	*
115		5	-	2	10		-	4	Out											0	5	33	53	9		17,624	*
114		4	-	3	10		-	4	Out											0	2	24	59	14	0	13,470	*
113		4	-	3	11		-	3	Out											0	1	17	60	22	0	9,895	*
112		4	-	2	11		-	4	Out												0	11	59	30	0	7,029	*
111		3	-	3	11		-	4	Out												0	6	54	40	0	4,923	*
110		3	-	2	11		-	5	Out												0	4	48	48	0	3,223	*
109		3	-	2	12		-	4	Out													2	40	58	1	2,111	*
108		3	-	2	13		-	3	Out													1	31	67	1	1,355	*
107		2	-	3	13		-	3	Out													0	22	76	1	750	*
106		2	-	2	13		-	4	Out														18	79	3	419	*
105		2	-	2	14		-	3	Out														12	83	5	262	*
104		2	-	2	15		-	2	Out														11	84	6	123	*
103		2	-	1	15		-	3	Out														4	83	13	70	*
102		1	-	2	15		-	3	Out														9	85	6	33	*
101		1	-	2	16		-	2	Out															75	25	20	*
100		1	-	1	16		-	3	Out															67	33	9	*
99		1	-	1	17		-	2	Out															67	33	3	*
98		1	-	0	17		-	3	Out															100		1
92		0	-	0	21		-	0	Out															25	75	59

Total:									37.4	%	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	10	12	13	13	13	10	2	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	+0.1
Canucks 3 Blues 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks vs Wild	-1.1-0.3-0.3+0.4+0.4+1.1
Oilers vs Blues	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

155		21	-	0	0		-	0	51	31	19
148	-149									100
147		17	-	2	2		-	0		40	50		10
146		15	-	4	1		-	1	13		75		13
145		14	-	5	1		-	1	4	7	79	4	7
144		14	-	4	1		-	2		14	52	14	15		5
143		14	-	4	2		-	1		9	48	18	21		4
142		14	-	3	2		-	2		3	38	29	21		8	1
141		13	-	4	2		-	2		2	29	31	29	1	6	2
140		12	-	5	2		-	2		1	23	26	30	3	13	4	1
139		13	-	3	3		-	2		0	13	26	31	4	19	6	2		0
138		12	-	4	3		-	2		0	8	21	33	6	18	11	4		0
137		12	-	3	3		-	3		0	4	16	30	8	21	14	7	0	0
136		11	-	4	3		-	3			2	10	24	10	20	21	11	0	1
135		11	-	4	4		-	2		0	1	6	18	12	16	25	18	1	3	0	0
134		11	-	3	4		-	3			0	3	12	12	11	25	25	3	7	0	1		0		0
133		10	-	4	4		-	3			0	1	7	9	7	24	29	7	14	0	2		0
132		10	-	4	5		-	2			0	0	3	7	3	18	28	10	23	1	6	0	1		0	0
131		10	-	3	5		-	3			0	0	1	4	1	11	21	13	31	1	13	0	2		0	0
130		9	-	4	5		-	3				0	0	2	0	6	12	13	33	3	23	0	7		1	0
129		9	-	3	5		-	4					0	1	0	2	5	9	27	5	31	0	15		3	0	0
128		9	-	3	6		-	3					0	0	0	1	2	5	17	6	34	1	25	0	8	1	0
127		8	-	4	6		-	3					0	0	0	0	0	2	8	5	29	1	33	0	17	4	0	0
126		8	-	3	6		-	4						0		0	0	1	3	3	18	2	34	0	27	11	2	0
125		8	-	3	7		-	3						0			0	0	1	1	9	2	27	0	34	20	5	1	0
124		7	-	4	7		-	3										0	0	0	3	1	17	1	33	31	12	2	0
123		7	-	3	7		-	4											0	0	1	1	8	1	26	36	22	5	0	0
122		7	-	3	8		-	3											0	0	0	0	3	0	16	35	32	12	1	0
121		6	-	4	8		-	3												0	0	0	1	0	8	28	38	22	4	0	0
120		6	-	3	8		-	4														0	0	0	3	17	37	32	9	1	0
119		6	-	3	9		-	3														0	0	0	1	9	30	40	17	2	0	0
118		6	-	2	9		-	4																0	0	4	21	41	27	6	1	0
117		5	-	3	9		-	4																0	0	1	11	35	36	13	3	0	0
116		5	-	3	10		-	3																	0	0	5	25	39	22	7	1	0	0
115		5	-	2	10		-	4																		0	2	15	35	30	14	4	0	0
114		4	-	3	10		-	4																		0	1	7	26	33	24	8	1	0	0
113		4	-	3	11		-	3																			0	3	15	32	30	15	4	1	0
112		4	-	2	11		-	4																			0	1	7	23	34	25	8	1	0
111		3	-	3	11		-	4																				0	3	15	30	32	17	4	0
110		3	-	2	11		-	5																					1	7	23	34	25	8	1	0
109		3	-	2	12		-	4																					1	3	13	32	31	17	3	0
108		3	-	2	13		-	3																					0	1	7	23	35	27	7	1
107		2	-	3	13		-	3																							3	15	32	37	11	1
106		2	-	2	13		-	4																							1	11	29	34	20	5
105		2	-	2	14		-	3																							1	5	19	35	33	6	1
104		2	-	2	15		-	2																								2	12	32	44	10	1
103		2	-	1	15		-	3																								1	7	16	44	30	1
102		1	-	2	15		-	3																									3	27	45	21	3
101		1	-	2	16		-	2																										15	30	25	25	5
100		1	-	1	16		-	3																										22	11	44	22
99		1	-	1	17		-	2																											67	33
98		1	-	0	17		-	3																												100
92		0	-	0	21		-	0																												8	27	64

Total:									0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	2	6	1	8	0	10	0	11	13	13	11	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0