How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Capitals vs Rangers+0.5+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.6
+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Hurricanes vs Penguins-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
Sabres vs Senators-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0+0.1
Lightning vs Devils-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Capitals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-OTL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
155-163In10065*
15416-21-2In505010*
15315-31-2In742635*
15214-41-2In505066*
15114-31-3In52462114*
15014-32-2In38594229*
14913-42-2In336160448*
14813-43-1In26677776*
14713-33-2In17721001,282*
14612-43-2In13721402,114*
14512-33-3In9702013,308*
14411-43-3In5682524,864*
14311-44-2In36332207,104*
14211-34-3In25837309,935*
14110-44-3In150444113,346*
14010-45-2In143506117,560*
13910-35-3In0365572022,108*
1389-45-3In0295894027,399*
1379-46-2In02361106032,642*
1369-36-3In01762129037,495*
1358-46-3In0116113140042,338*
1348-36-4In85913191046,275*
1338-37-3In55512253049,176*
1327-47-3In35011315050,346*
1317-37-4In2459359050,288*
1307-38-3In138739141049,248*
1296-48-3In032540211045,993*
1286-38-4In026338303042,421*
1276-39-3In020234386037,834*
1266-29-4In0151284510132,467*
1255-39-4100.0%01102150161027,031*
1245-310-399.90701450253022,063*
1235-210-499.6509463260017,378*
1224-310-499.03053940121013,310*
1214-311-397.322304419309,926*
1204-211-493.811214327607,122*
1193-311-487.41012393611104,851*
1183-312-378.1007314018303,208*
1173-212-463.7003194129712,159*
1163-213-349.70113363613101,345*
1153-113-430.80625402351763*
1142-213-421.13183531122460*
1132-214-39.8193038194254*
1122-114-46.4619343452109*
1112-115-3Out11343418261*
1101-215-3Out5383816337*
1091-216-2Out38382313*
1081-116-3Out171750176*
1071-218-0Out50502*
1061-017-3Out1001
1000-021-0Out320413659
Total:99.3%0103972115521000000737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Capitals vs Rangers-0.7-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.7
Lightning vs Devils+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Hurricanes vs Penguins-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-OTL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
16321-00-0982
15818-10-2100
15615-50-1100
15517-22-05050
15416-21-2401050
15315-31-2373726
15214-41-2272350
15114-31-321314612
15014-32-211275714
14913-42-2102360160
14813-43-14226527
14713-33-2315684100
14612-43-2112667140
14512-33-31861102001
14411-43-30554132502
14311-44-203451831120
14211-34-3023721361300
14110-44-3012623423401
14010-45-2118254455010
13910-35-3011244596120
1389-45-30623441581400
1379-46-20319392282600
1369-36-30116322984900
1358-46-30011253776131000
1348-36-407174258163100
1338-37-305104539187200
1327-47-303645291614410
1317-37-423421813237200
1307-38-311370783186000
1296-48-3003205436814100
1286-38-40026031366242100
1276-39-3002020333342400
1266-29-4001510282442800
1255-39-40011002105011501000
1245-310-30701405012402000
1235-210-45090460320600000
1224-310-43053904001100000
1214-311-32230044019001100
1204-211-41121430270122100
1193-311-4101239360254100
1183-312-30073140027840
1173-212-4003194118151020
1163-213-3011336151919610
1153-113-406251317291730
1142-213-4318112302592
1132-214-319263231146
1122-114-4621530331211
1112-115-3283133207
1101-215-331114431911
1091-115-43131318
1081-116-3176717
1071-218-05050
1061-017-3100
1000-021-0512323417
Total:0047132634714312050200000000000000