Minnesota Wild Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Lost to Kings 2-4, playoff odds down 9.4 to 64.1%

96 points 26-6 23-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Kings 4 Wild 2	-8.9		-0.6
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-0.9
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks vs Wild	-10.6-2.8-3.0+3.6+4.0+10.1		-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	-0.5-0.3+0.0-0.0-0.3+0.7
Flames vs Sharks	-0.5-0.4-0.0+0.6-0.2+0.6
Oilers vs Blues	+0.5+0.5-0.1+0.1*-0.4-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Wild finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

159		21	-	0	0		-	0	In		97			3												59
152	-153								In		100															3	*
150		17	-	1	2		-	1	In		78			22												9	*
149		15	-	3	1		-	2	In		40			60												30	*
148		14	-	4	1		-	2	In		42			58												65	*
147		14	-	4	2		-	1	In		33	7		60												126	*
146		14	-	3	2		-	2	In		19	2		78												236	*
145		13	-	4	2		-	2	In		13	2	0	84												463	*
144		13	-	4	3		-	1	In		12	3	0	85	0											816	*
143		13	-	3	3		-	2	In		8	3	0	89	0											1,361	*
142		12	-	4	3		-	2	In		4	3	0	92	0											2,127	*
141		12	-	3	3		-	3	In		2	2	0	95	1											3,244	*
140		11	-	4	3		-	3	In		1	1	0	95	2	0										4,994	*
139		11	-	4	4		-	2	In		1	1	0	94	4	0										6,969	*
138		11	-	3	4		-	3	In		0	1	0	90	8	0										9,852	*
137		10	-	4	4		-	3	In		0	0	0	84	14	1	0									13,427	*
136		10	-	4	5		-	2	In		0	0	0	76	21	2	0									17,191	*
135		10	-	3	5		-	3	In			0	0	64	31	5	0	0								22,086	*
134		9	-	4	5		-	3	In			0	0	50	39	10	1	0								27,355	*
133		9	-	3	5		-	4	In			0	0	35	44	18	3	0								32,329	*
132		9	-	3	6		-	3	100.0	%		0	0	21	43	28	7	1	0	0						37,589	*
131		8	-	4	6		-	3	99.8				0	12	35	36	15	2	0	0						42,429	*
130		8	-	3	6		-	4	99.2				0	5	25	38	24	7	1	0						45,839	*
129		8	-	3	7		-	3	96.7				0	2	14	33	33	15	3	0	0					49,472	*
128		7	-	4	7		-	3	91.5				0	0	6	24	36	25	8	1	0	0				50,292	*
127		7	-	3	7		-	4	80.2				0	0	2	13	31	33	16	3	0	0				50,552	*
126		7	-	3	8		-	3	63.2				0	0	1	6	21	35	26	9	1	0				48,918	*
125		6	-	4	8		-	3	44.1					0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0	0			46,177	*
124		6	-	3	8		-	4	26.3				0		0	1	5	20	35	28	10	1	0			42,652	*
123		6	-	3	9		-	3	13.0							0	2	11	29	35	19	4	0			37,800	*
122		6	-	2	9		-	4	5.6				0			0	1	5	20	36	29	9	1			32,472	*
121		5	-	3	9		-	4	2.0							0	0	2	11	30	37	18	2	0		27,466	*
120		5	-	3	10		-	3	0.5								0	1	5	22	39	28	6	0		22,233	*
119		5	-	2	10		-	4	0.1									0	2	13	36	37	11	0		17,286	*
118		4	-	3	10		-	4	0.0									0	1	7	28	43	20	1		13,347	*
117		4	-	3	11		-	3	Out										0	3	19	45	31	1		9,908	*
116		4	-	2	11		-	4	Out										0	1	12	43	41	3		6,970	*
115		4	-	2	12		-	3	Out											0	6	36	52	6		4,844	*
114		3	-	3	12		-	3	Out											0	3	27	59	11		3,213	*
113		3	-	2	12		-	4	Out												2	18	62	17		2,164	*
112		3	-	2	13		-	3	Out												1	11	63	25		1,349	*
111		2	-	3	13		-	3	Out												0	8	60	32		737	*
110		2	-	2	13		-	4	Out													5	54	40	1	434	*
109		2	-	2	14		-	3	Out													4	47	48	1	238	*
108		1	-	2	13		-	5	Out													1	40	58	1	144	*
107		2	-	1	15		-	3	Out														34	56	10	62	*
106		1	-	2	15		-	3	Out														20	70	10	30	*
105		1	-	2	16		-	2	Out														21	74	5	19	*
104		1	-	1	16		-	3	Out														20	60	20	5	*
102	-103								Out															100		2	*
96		0	-	0	21		-	0	Out															24	76	59

Total:									64.1	%	0	0	0	15	13	13	12	12	11	9	7	5	3	0	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kings 4 Wild 2	+1.1
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks vs Wild	+1.1+0.3+0.4-0.4-0.4-1.1
Oilers vs Blues	-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

159	21	-	0	0		-	0	75	22					3
153	16	-	4	0		-	1	100
152	16	-	4	1		-	0	50	50
150	17	-	1	2		-	1	11	67					22
149	15	-	3	1		-	2	7	33					60
148	14	-	4	1		-	2	8	34					58
147	14	-	4	2		-	1	5	28	6	1			60	1
146	14	-	3	2		-	2	2	17	2				77	1
145	13	-	4	2		-	2	1	13	2	1	0		79	5
144	13	-	4	3		-	1	1	11	2	1	0		80	5	0
143	13	-	3	3		-	2	0	8	2	1	0		80	8	0
142	12	-	4	3		-	2		4	2	1	0		81	11	0
141	12	-	3	3		-	3		2	1	1	0		80	15	1
140	11	-	4	3		-	3		1	1	1	0		73	22	2		0
139	11	-	4	4		-	2		1	0	1	0	0	68	26	4		0
138	11	-	3	4		-	3		0	0	0	0	0	60	31	8	0	0
137	10	-	4	4		-	3		0	0	0	0	0	48	36	14	0	1		0
136	10	-	4	5		-	2		0	0	0	0	0	37	39	21	1	2		0
135	10	-	3	5		-	3			0	0	0	0	26	38	29	2	5		0		0
134	9	-	4	5		-	3				0	0	0	16	34	35	4	10	0	1		0
133	9	-	3	5		-	4				0	0	0	8	26	37	7	18	0	3		0
132	9	-	3	6		-	3				0	0	0	3	18	32	11	27	1	7		1		0
131	8	-	4	6		-	3					0	0	1	10	22	13	34	2	15	0	2		0	0
130	8	-	3	6		-	4						0	0	5	12	12	35	3	24	0	7		1	0
129	8	-	3	7		-	3					0	0	0	2	5	9	28	5	33	0	15		3	0	0
128	7	-	4	7		-	3						0	0	0	2	5	18	6	35	1	25	0	8	1	0	0
127	7	-	3	7		-	4						0		0	0	2	8	5	30	2	33	0	16	4	0	0
126	7	-	3	8		-	3						0		0	0	1	3	3	19	2	35	0	26	9	1	0
125	6	-	4	8		-	3								0	0	0	1	1	10	2	29	0	34	18	4	0	0
124	6	-	3	8		-	4						0				0	0	1	4	2	20	1	34	28	10	1	0
123	6	-	3	9		-	3											0	0	1	1	10	1	29	35	19	4	0
122	6	-	2	9		-	4						0					0	0	0	0	4	1	20	36	29	9	1	0
121	5	-	3	9		-	4												0	0	0	1	0	11	29	37	18	3	0
120	5	-	3	10		-	3													0	0	0	0	5	20	38	28	7	0	0
119	5	-	2	10		-	4															0	0	2	12	33	37	14	2	0
118	4	-	3	10		-	4															0		1	5	23	40	24	5	1	0
117	4	-	3	11		-	3																	0	2	13	35	35	12	3	0	0
116	4	-	2	11		-	4																	0	1	6	26	38	21	7	1	0
115	4	-	2	12		-	3																		0	2	16	35	29	14	3	0	0
114	3	-	3	12		-	3																			1	7	25	36	22	8	1	0
113	3	-	2	12		-	4																			0	3	17	30	32	15	3	0
112	3	-	2	13		-	3																			0	1	7	22	35	24	9	2	0
111	2	-	3	13		-	3																				0	2	15	31	33	16	3	0
110	2	-	2	13		-	4																				0	0	7	24	33	23	11	1
109	2	-	2	14		-	3																					1	3	9	36	30	16	5	0
108	1	-	2	13		-	5																						1	4	28	33	24	8	1
107	2	-	1	15		-	3																							5	21	23	37	13	2
106	1	-	2	15		-	3																								7	13	53	27
105	1	-	2	16		-	2																									37	21	32	11
104	1	-	1	16		-	3																								20		20	20		40
103	0	-	3	17		-	1																											100
102	0	-	2	17		-	2																										100
96	0	-	0	21		-	0																											2	12	46	41

Total:								0	0	0	0	0	0	7	8	9	4	11	2	12	1	12	0	11	9	7	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0