Nashville Predators Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Lost to Blackhawks 0-3, playoff odds down 9.8 to 57.9%

95 points 25-6 22-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Predators 0 Blackhawks 3	-9.8		-0.7
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-1.0
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.7

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Flames vs Sharks	-0.7-0.2-0.4-0.2+0.4+0.7
Oilers vs Blues	+0.6-0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	-0.5-0.3-0.5+0.1+0.4+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Predators finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

158	21	-	0	0		-	0	In		93	7														59
152	17	-	3	1		-	0	In			100														1
151	16	-	3	0		-	2	In		86	14														7	*
150	16	-	3	1		-	1	In		88	13														8	*
149	16	-	2	1		-	2	In		60	40														10	*
148	16	-	2	2		-	1	In		47	53														30	*
147	14	-	4	1		-	2	In		33	64		3												78	*
146	14	-	4	2		-	1	In		24	70	1	5												142	*
145	14	-	3	2		-	2	In		19	75	2	4												263	*
144	13	-	4	2		-	2	In		12	73	4	11												463	*
143	13	-	4	3		-	1	In		8	75	5	12	0											777	*
142	13	-	3	3		-	2	In		5	69	9	18	0											1,254	*
141	12	-	4	3		-	2	In		2	62	11	24	0											2,186	*
140	12	-	3	3		-	3	In		1	52	15	31	1											3,203	*
139	11	-	4	3		-	3	In		1	44	18	35	1											5,048	*
138	11	-	4	4		-	2	In		0	31	22	42	4	0										7,074	*
137	11	-	3	4		-	3	In		0	22	24	46	7	0										10,064	*
136	10	-	4	4		-	3	In		0	14	23	49	13	1	0									13,278	*
135	10	-	4	5		-	2	In		0	8	22	48	20	3	0	0								17,654	*
134	10	-	3	5		-	3	In			4	19	41	28	7	1	0								22,110	*
133	9	-	4	5		-	3	100.0	%		2	15	32	35	14	2	0	0							27,040	*
132	9	-	4	6		-	2	100.0			1	10	22	38	22	6	1	0							32,552	*
131	9	-	3	6		-	3	99.8			0	7	12	34	31	13	2	0	0						37,950	*
130	8	-	4	6		-	3	99.2			0	4	6	25	36	22	6	1	0						42,252	*
129	8	-	3	6		-	4	97.2			0	2	2	15	33	31	14	3	0	0					46,198	*
128	8	-	3	7		-	3	91.8				1	1	7	25	35	23	7	1	0					48,919	*
127	7	-	4	7		-	3	80.9				0	0	3	14	31	32	15	3	0	0				50,263	*
126	7	-	3	7		-	4	63.9				0	0	1	6	22	34	26	9	1	0				50,283	*
125	7	-	3	8		-	3	44.1				0	0	0	2	12	29	33	18	4	0	0			48,730	*
124	6	-	4	8		-	3	26.1				0	0	0	1	5	20	34	28	10	1	0			46,528	*
123	6	-	3	8		-	4	12.2				0		0	0	2	10	28	35	20	4	0			42,044	*
122	6	-	3	9		-	3	5.2						0	0	0	5	19	35	30	10	1			37,586	*
121	5	-	4	9		-	3	1.7				0			0	0	2	10	29	37	19	3	0		32,726	*
120	5	-	3	9		-	4	0.5								0	0	5	20	39	29	7	0		27,103	*
119	5	-	3	10		-	3	0.1								0	0	2	12	34	39	13	0		22,135	*
118	5	-	2	10		-	4	0.0									0	0	6	26	45	22	1		17,424	*
117	4	-	3	10		-	4	Out										0	2	18	45	33	2		13,463	*
116	4	-	3	11		-	3	Out										0	1	10	41	45	4		10,017	*
115	4	-	2	11		-	4	Out											0	6	33	54	7		7,117	*
114	3	-	3	11		-	4	Out											0	2	26	60	13	0	4,803	*
113	3	-	3	12		-	3	Out												1	17	62	19	0	3,245	*
112	3	-	2	12		-	4	Out												0	12	63	24	0	2,191	*
111	3	-	2	13		-	3	Out												0	7	58	36	0	1,364	*
110	3	-	1	13		-	4	Out													6	49	45	0	780	*
109	2	-	2	13		-	4	Out													1	45	52	1	481	*
108	2	-	2	14		-	3	Out														34	63	4	256	*
107	2	-	1	14		-	4	Out														25	71	3	119	*
106	2	-	1	15		-	3	Out														15	75	9	65	*
105	1	-	2	15		-	3	Out														12	84	4	25	*
104	1	-	1	15		-	4	Out														23	77		13	*
103	1	-	1	16		-	3	Out															50	50	2	*
102	0	-	1	15		-	5	Out															100		2
95	0	-	0	21		-	0	Out															10	90	59

Total:								57.9	%	0	2	4	8	10	11	12	12	11	10	9	7	4	1	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Predators 0 Blackhawks 3	+1.2
Canucks 3 Blues 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Blues	-0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

158	21	-	0	0		-	0	83	10	7
152	17	-	3	1		-	0			100
151	16	-	3	0		-	2	43	43	14
150	16	-	3	1		-	1	25	63	13
149	16	-	2	1		-	2	20	40	40
148	16	-	2	2		-	1	7	40	53
147	14	-	4	1		-	2	5	28	58	6			3
146	14	-	4	2		-	1	1	23	62	8	1		4	1
145	14	-	3	2		-	2	2	17	65	11	2		4
144	13	-	4	2		-	2	1	11	59	14	4		11	0
143	13	-	4	3		-	1	0	7	52	23	5	0	11	1	0
142	13	-	3	3		-	2	0	5	44	25	8	0	15	3	0
141	12	-	4	3		-	2		2	35	27	11	0	20	4	0
140	12	-	3	3		-	3		1	24	27	14	1	23	7	1
139	11	-	4	3		-	3		1	17	28	16	2	24	11	1
138	11	-	4	4		-	2		0	9	22	18	4	25	17	4	0	0
137	11	-	3	4		-	3		0	5	17	18	6	24	22	7	0	0
136	10	-	4	4		-	3		0	2	12	16	7	21	27	12	0	1		0
135	10	-	4	5		-	2		0	1	7	12	9	17	31	19	1	3	0	0		0
134	10	-	3	5		-	3			0	4	9	10	11	30	25	3	7	0	1		0
133	9	-	4	5		-	3			0	1	6	9	6	26	29	7	14	0	2		0		0
132	9	-	4	6		-	2			0	1	3	7	3	19	28	11	22	0	6		1		0
131	9	-	3	6		-	3			0	0	1	5	1	11	21	14	30	1	13		2		0	0
130	8	-	4	6		-	3				0	1	3	0	6	12	14	33	3	22	0	6		1	0
129	8	-	3	6		-	4				0	0	2	0	2	5	10	27	5	31	0	14	0	3	0	0
128	8	-	3	7		-	3					0	1	0	1	2	6	18	6	34	1	23	0	7	1	0
127	7	-	4	7		-	3					0	0	0	0	0	2	9	5	30	1	32	0	15	3	0	0
126	7	-	3	7		-	4					0	0		0	0	1	3	3	20	2	34	0	26	9	1	0
125	7	-	3	8		-	3						0		0	0	0	1	2	10	2	29	0	33	18	4	0	0
124	6	-	4	8		-	3						0		0		0	0	0	4	2	19	1	34	28	10	1	0
123	6	-	3	8		-	4						0				0	0	0	1	1	10	1	28	35	20	4	0
122	6	-	3	9		-	3										0	0	0	0	0	4	1	19	35	30	10	1
121	5	-	4	9		-	3						0						0	0	0	1	0	10	29	37	20	3	0	0
120	5	-	3	9		-	4													0	0	0	0	4	19	38	30	8	0	0
119	5	-	3	10		-	3														0	0	0	1	10	32	39	15	2	0	0
118	5	-	2	10		-	4															0	0	0	5	22	41	26	5	1	0	0
117	4	-	3	10		-	4																	0	2	13	36	36	11	2	0	0
116	4	-	3	11		-	3																	0	0	6	26	40	20	6	1	0
115	4	-	2	11		-	4																		0	3	16	35	31	13	3	0	0
114	3	-	3	11		-	4																			0	7	28	33	22	8	1	0
113	3	-	3	12		-	3																			0	3	18	30	29	15	4	0	0
112	3	-	2	12		-	4																				1	9	24	34	22	9	1	0
111	3	-	2	13		-	3																				1	3	14	32	30	16	4	1
110	3	-	1	13		-	4																					1	9	21	33	27	8	1
109	2	-	2	13		-	4																						4	15	30	30	17	4
108	2	-	2	14		-	3																						2	5	22	34	27	9	1	0
107	2	-	1	14		-	4																							3	16	29	34	18
106	2	-	1	15		-	3																								9	31	32	25	3
105	1	-	2	15		-	3																								4	24	48	20	4
104	1	-	1	15		-	4																									23	54	23
103	1	-	1	16		-	3																											50	50
102	0	-	1	15		-	5																											50	50
95	0	-	0	21		-	0																											2	14	32	53

Total:								0	0	1	1	2	2	2	6	6	4	9	2	11	1	11	0	11	10	9	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0