New Jersey Devils Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.6 to 8.8%

76 points 20-6 30-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	-0.5		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lightning vs Devils	-3.4-1.6-1.4+0.7+0.8+3.8		-0.4-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.4
Hurricanes vs Penguins	-0.9-0.2-0.5+0.3*+0.2+0.9		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Capitals vs Rangers	+0.7+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.4-0.6
Sabres vs Senators	-0.7-0.1-0.4+0.1+0.4+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Devils finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

142		22	-	0	0		-	0	In		2			95	3											59
135		17	-	3	0		-	2	In					100												1
134		18	-	2	2		-	0	In						50	50										2	*
133		16	-	4	1		-	1	In					75	13	13										8	*
132		15	-	4	0		-	3	In					37	53	11										19	*
131		15	-	4	1		-	2	In					27	32	41										22	*
130		15	-	4	2		-	1	In					16	40	43	2									58	*
129		15	-	3	2		-	2	In					12	55	28	5									106	*
128		14	-	4	2		-	2	In					4	36	45	15	0								227	*
127		13	-	5	2		-	2	99.5	%				3	27	43	25	1	0							417	*
126		13	-	4	2		-	3	In					1	17	46	31	5								750	*
125		13	-	4	3		-	2	99.5					1	11	43	39	6	1							1,197	*
124		13	-	3	3		-	3	98.4						5	33	47	14	2	0						1,911	*
123		12	-	4	3		-	3	96.5					0	2	22	50	22	3	0						2,868	*
122		12	-	4	4		-	2	93.1						1	15	45	32	7	0						4,483	*
121		12	-	3	4		-	3	87.2						0	8	40	39	12	1	0					6,333	*
120		11	-	4	4		-	3	77.2						0	4	30	43	20	3	0					8,882	*
119		11	-	4	5		-	2	67.2						0	2	22	44	27	6	0					11,934	*
118		11	-	3	5		-	3	52.4						0	1	13	38	35	11	1	0				15,781	*
117		10	-	4	5		-	3	38.6							0	7	31	40	19	3	0				20,068	*
116		9	-	5	5		-	3	25.8							0	4	22	41	27	6	0				24,789	*
115		10	-	3	6		-	3	15.5							0	1	14	37	35	11	1	0			30,092	*
114		9	-	4	6		-	3	8.4							0	1	8	30	40	18	2	0			34,859	*
113		9	-	3	6		-	4	4.0								0	4	22	41	27	6	0	0		39,181	*
112		8	-	4	6		-	4	1.7								0	2	13	37	36	11	1	0		43,634	*
111		8	-	4	7		-	3	0.5								0	0	7	30	41	18	2	0		47,014	*
110		8	-	3	7		-	4	0.2								0	0	4	21	43	27	5	0		48,694	*
109		7	-	4	7		-	4	0.0									0	1	14	39	36	10	1	0	25,328	*
		7	-	5	8		-	2	Out										1	14	39	36	10	0	0	24,249	*
108		7	-	4	8		-	3	0.0									0	1	7	32	42	16	2	0	48,974	*
107		7	-	3	8		-	4	Out										0	3	23	44	26	4	0	46,789	*
106		7	-	3	9		-	3	Out										0	1	15	41	35	7	0	43,437	*
105		6	-	4	9		-	3	Out											0	8	34	43	13	1	39,489	*
104		6	-	3	9		-	4	Out										0	0	4	26	47	21	2	34,822	*
103		6	-	3	10		-	3	Out											0	2	17	46	29	5	30,198	*
102		5	-	3	9		-	5	Out											0	1	10	42	38	9	24,964	*
101		5	-	3	10		-	4	Out												0	6	34	45	15	20,220	*
100		5	-	3	11		-	3	Out												0	3	25	48	23	15,922	*
99		5	-	2	11		-	4	Out												0	1	18	48	33	12,076	*
98		4	-	3	11		-	4	Out													0	12	45	43	8,836	*
97		4	-	3	12		-	3	Out													0	7	40	53	6,386	*
96		4	-	2	12		-	4	Out													0	4	32	64	4,503	*
95		3	-	3	12		-	4	Out														2	24	74	2,970	*
94		3	-	3	13		-	3	Out														1	19	80	1,902	*
93		3	-	2	13		-	4	Out														0	14	85	1,251	*
92		3	-	2	14		-	3	Out															9	91	749	*
91		2	-	2	13		-	5	Out															5	95	445	*
90		2	-	2	14		-	4	Out														0	6	93	238	*
89		2	-	2	15		-	3	Out															1	99	125	*
76	-88								Out																100	182	*

Total:									8.8	%	0			0	0	1	2	6	10	15	19	19	16	9	4	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lightning vs Devils	+0.8+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.8
Hurricanes vs Penguins	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Capitals vs Rangers	-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

142		22	-	0	0		-	0		2					93	2	3
135		17	-	3	0		-	2								100
134		18	-	2	2		-	0									50		50
133		16	-	4	1		-	1							38	38	13		13
132		15	-	4	0		-	3							5	32	32	21	11
131		16	-	3	2		-	1							5	23	14	18	32	9
130		15	-	4	2		-	1								16	5	34	31	12	2
129		15	-	3	2		-	2								12	5	50	9	19	4	1
128		14	-	4	2		-	2								4	0	35	12	33	8	7	0
127		13	-	5	2		-	2								3		27	3	40	10	15	0	0	0
126		13	-	4	2		-	3								1		17	1	45	6	25	2	3
125		13	-	4	3		-	2								1		11	1	42	3	36	2	4	1
124		13	-	3	3		-	3										5	0	33	2	45	3	11	1	1	0	0
123		12	-	4	3		-	3								0		2		22	1	49	1	21	1	1	1	0	0
122		12	-	4	4		-	2										1		15	0	45	1	31	1	2	2	1	0	0
121		12	-	3	4		-	3										0		8	0	40	0	39	1	2	5	4	1	0
120		11	-	4	4		-	3										0		4		30	0	43	0	2	6	8	5	1	0
119		11	-	4	5		-	2										0		2		22	0	44	0	1	6	11	10	4	0	0
118		11	-	3	5		-	3										0		1		13		38	0	1	5	13	17	10	2	0	0
117		10	-	4	5		-	3												0		7		31	0	0	2	11	22	18	6	1	0
116		9	-	5	5		-	3												0		4		22		0	1	8	23	27	12	3	0	0
115		10	-	3	6		-	3												0		1		14		0	0	4	18	32	22	7	1	0
114		9	-	4	6		-	3												0		1		8			0	2	12	30	31	14	3	0	0
113		9	-	3	6		-	4														0		4			0	1	6	23	34	24	7	1	0	0
112		8	-	4	6		-	4														0		2			0	0	3	15	32	32	14	3	0	0
111		8	-	4	7		-	3														0		0				0	1	8	25	36	23	6	1	0
110		8	-	3	7		-	4														0		0				0	0	3	16	34	32	13	2	0
109		7	-	4	7		-	4																0					0	1	9	27	36	21	5	0	0
108		7	-	4	8		-	3																0					0	0	4	19	36	30	10	1	0
107		7	-	3	8		-	4																					0	0	2	11	30	36	17	3	0
106		7	-	3	9		-	3																						0	1	5	23	38	27	6	0	0
105		6	-	4	9		-	3																							0	2	14	35	35	12	1	0
104		6	-	3	9		-	4																							0	1	8	28	41	19	3	0
103		6	-	3	10		-	3																							0	0	4	20	42	28	7	0
102		5	-	3	9		-	5																								0	1	12	38	35	12	1
101		5	-	3	10		-	4																								0	0	7	30	41	19	3
100		5	-	3	11		-	3																									0	3	21	42	28	5
99		5	-	2	11		-	4																									0	1	14	39	36	10
98		4	-	3	11		-	4																										0	8	33	43	15
97		4	-	3	12		-	3																										0	4	27	47	23
96		4	-	2	12		-	4																										0	2	18	48	32
95		3	-	3	12		-	4																											1	12	46	42
94		3	-	3	13		-	3																											1	7	42	51
93		3	-	2	13		-	4																											0	5	35	60
92		3	-	2	14		-	3																												2	31	67
91		2	-	2	13		-	5																												1	22	78
90		2	-	2	14		-	4																												1	26	72
89		2	-	2	15		-	3																													11	89
88		1	-	2	14		-	5																													14	86
87		1	-	2	15		-	4																													7	93
76	-86																																					100

Total:										0					0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	6	0	0	0	1	4	7	10	13	14	14	12	8	4	2