Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.09 to 99.3%

99 points 22-13 18-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lightning vs Devils	+0.4+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.5		+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Sabres vs Senators	-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Hurricanes vs Penguins	-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Capitals vs Rangers	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Lightning finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

158	-165								In		100															60	*
157		17	-	3	1		-	1	In		67	33														3	*
156		16	-	4	1		-	1	In		70	30														10	*
155		16	-	3	1		-	2	In		73	27														11	*
154		15	-	4	1		-	2	In		61	39														23	*
153		14	-	5	1		-	2	In		51	49														57	*
152		14	-	5	2		-	1	In		48	49	2													122	*
151		14	-	4	2		-	2	In		41	59	0													262	*
150		14	-	3	2		-	3	In		36	63	2													390	*
149		14	-	3	3		-	2	In		25	71	4	0												747	*
148		13	-	4	3		-	2	In		22	72	5	0												1,188	*
147		13	-	3	3		-	3	In		17	73	9	0												1,900	*
146		12	-	4	3		-	3	In		11	76	12	1												3,021	*
145		12	-	4	4		-	2	In		8	74	17	1	0											4,501	*
144		11	-	5	4		-	2	In		6	72	21	1	0											6,408	*
143		11	-	4	4		-	3	In		4	66	28	2	0											8,939	*
142		11	-	4	5		-	2	In		2	61	34	3	0											11,947	*
141		11	-	3	5		-	3	In		1	53	41	4	1											15,785	*
140		10	-	4	5		-	3	In		1	45	47	6	2	0										20,365	*
139		9	-	5	5		-	3	In		0	37	52	7	3	0										24,947	*
138		10	-	3	6		-	3	In		0	30	56	9	5	0										29,543	*
137		9	-	4	6		-	3	In		0	23	59	10	8	0										34,677	*
136		9	-	3	6		-	4	In		0	17	59	11	13	0										39,565	*
135		9	-	3	7		-	3	In		0	12	59	12	17	1										43,509	*
134		8	-	4	7		-	3	In		0	8	57	11	23	2	0									46,814	*
133		8	-	3	7		-	4	In		0	5	52	10	30	3	0									48,808	*
132		8	-	3	8		-	3	In			3	47	9	36	6	0									49,408	*
131		7	-	4	8		-	3	In			2	41	7	40	10	0	0								48,776	*
130		7	-	3	8		-	4	In			1	35	5	42	16	1	0								47,056	*
129		7	-	3	9		-	3	In			0	29	4	42	24	1	0								43,692	*
128		6	-	4	9		-	3	In			0	22	2	40	32	3	0								39,743	*
127		6	-	3	9		-	4	In			0	17	1	35	41	6	0								34,807	*
126		6	-	3	10		-	3	100.0	%		0	12	1	28	48	10	1	0							29,820	*
125		6	-	2	10		-	4	100.0			0	9	0	21	52	16	2	0							24,878	*
124		5	-	3	10		-	4	99.9				6	0	15	51	24	4	0							20,281	*
123		5	-	3	11		-	3	99.6				4	0	9	46	33	7	0							15,794	*
122		5	-	2	11		-	4	98.6				2	0	5	39	40	13	1	0						11,993	*
121		4	-	3	11		-	4	96.6				1		2	29	43	21	3	0						8,849	*
120		4	-	3	12		-	3	92.8				1		1	20	42	29	7	1						6,396	*
119		4	-	2	12		-	4	84.9				0		0	12	36	36	13	2	0					4,583	*
118		3	-	3	12		-	4	74.0				0		0	5	28	40	21	4	0					3,010	*
117		3	-	3	13		-	3	59.7				0			3	19	38	31	8	1	0				1,889	*
116		3	-	2	13		-	4	43.8							1	9	34	40	14	2	0				1,175	*
115		3	-	2	14		-	3	31.9								5	27	38	25	5	0				697	*
114		2	-	2	13		-	5	15.6								2	14	36	37	10	2				435	*
113		2	-	2	14		-	4	6.1								1	5	27	42	21	4	0			247	*
112		2	-	2	15		-	3	2.4									2	14	33	37	13	1			126	*
111		2	-	1	15		-	4	1.4									1	11	26	40	17	4			72	*
110		2	-	1	16		-	3	Out										6	14	42	39				36	*
109		1	-	2	16		-	3	Out											18	18	55	9			11	*
108		1	-	2	17		-	2	Out												40	60				5	*
106		0	-	1	16		-	5	Out													25	25	25	25	4	*
99		0	-	0	22		-	0	Out														10	44	46	59

Total:									99.3	%	0	12	37	6	23	15	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lightning vs Devils	-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.7
Capitals vs Rangers	+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

158	-165								100
157		17	-	3	1		-	1	67		33
156		16	-	4	1		-	1	60	10	30
155		16	-	3	1		-	2	55	18	27
154		15	-	4	1		-	2	39	22	39
153		14	-	5	1		-	2	26	25	49
152		14	-	5	2		-	1	32	16	49		2
151		14	-	4	2		-	2	21	20	59		0
150		14	-	3	2		-	3	15	21	62	1	2
149		14	-	3	3		-	2	9	16	70	1	4		0
148		13	-	4	3		-	2	5	17	69	4	5		0
147		13	-	3	3		-	3	3	14	67	6	9		0
146		12	-	4	3		-	3	2	10	68	8	12	0	1
145		12	-	4	4		-	2	1	8	61	13	17	0	1		0
144		11	-	5	4		-	2	0	5	55	17	21	0	1		0
143		11	-	4	4		-	3	0	3	46	20	27	1	2		0
142		11	-	4	5		-	2	0	2	36	25	33	1	3	0	0
141		11	-	3	5		-	3		1	26	27	38	3	4	0	1
140		10	-	4	5		-	3		1	18	28	41	6	5	0	2		0
139		9	-	5	5		-	3		0	11	26	43	9	7	0	3	0	0
138		10	-	3	6		-	3		0	6	24	41	15	7	1	5	0	0
137		9	-	4	6		-	3		0	3	20	37	22	8	2	8	0	0
136		9	-	3	6		-	4		0	1	16	30	29	8	3	12	0	0
135		9	-	3	7		-	3		0	0	11	22	36	7	5	16	2	1
134		8	-	4	7		-	3		0	0	8	15	41	5	7	19	4	2	0	0
133		8	-	3	7		-	4		0	0	5	9	43	3	7	21	9	3	0	0
132		8	-	3	8		-	3			0	3	5	42	1	8	19	17	5	1	0
131		7	-	4	8		-	3				2	2	38	0	7	14	26	7	3	0	0	0
130		7	-	3	8		-	4				1	1	34	0	5	8	34	9	7	0	0	0
129		7	-	3	9		-	3				0	0	28	0	4	4	38	9	15	1	0	0
128		6	-	4	9		-	3				0	0	22		2	1	39	6	26	1	1	0	0
127		6	-	3	9		-	4				0	0	17		1	0	34	3	38	2	4	0	0
126		6	-	3	10		-	3				0	0	12		1	0	28	1	46	2	9	0	0	0
125		6	-	2	10		-	4				0		9		0	0	21	0	51	1	15	0	1	0	0
124		5	-	3	10		-	4						6		0		15	0	51	1	24	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
123		5	-	3	11		-	3						4		0		9	0	46	0	33	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
122		5	-	2	11		-	4						2		0		5		39	0	40	0	13	0	0	1	0	0	0
121		4	-	3	11		-	4						1				2		29		43	0	21	0	1	1	1	0	0
120		4	-	3	12		-	3						1				1		20		42	0	29	0	1	2	3	2	0
119		4	-	2	12		-	4						0				0		12		36	0	36		1	3	5	5	1	0
118		3	-	3	12		-	4						0				0		5		28		40		0	2	8	10	5	1	0
117		3	-	3	13		-	3						0						3		19		38		0	2	7	16	11	3	0	0
116		3	-	2	13		-	4												1		9		34			0	8	20	21	6	1	0
115		3	-	2	14		-	3														5		27				3	18	29	15	3	0
114		2	-	2	13		-	5														2		14				2	11	35	24	9	1	0
113		2	-	2	14		-	4														1		5				2	9	32	27	18	6	1
112		2	-	2	15		-	3																2					3	17	29	29	18	2
111		2	-	1	15		-	4																1					1	10	26	35	15	7	4
110		2	-	1	16		-	3																						6	8	33	42	11
109		1	-	2	16		-	3																							18	18	36	27
108		1	-	2	17		-	2																								20	60	20
106		0	-	1	16		-	5																										50	25		25
99		0	-	0	22		-	0																											10	29	54	7

Total:									0	0	5	8	13	24	3	3	8	15	3	12	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0