Chicago Blackhawks Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Beat Predators 3-0, playoff odds up 10 to 65.9%

96 points 26-6 23-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Predators 0 Blackhawks 3	+10.4		+0.7
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-1.0
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.7		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Flames vs Sharks	-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.2+0.8
Oilers vs Blues	+0.5+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes	-0.5-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blackhawks finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

159	21	-	0	0		-	0	In		88	12														59
153	18	-	1	1		-	1	In		100															1
151	16	-	3	1		-	1	In		25	75														4	*
150	15	-	4	1		-	1	In		47	53														15	*
149	14	-	5	1		-	1	In		19	81														27	*
148	14	-	4	1		-	2	In		26	73		1												70	*
147	15	-	2	2		-	2	In		15	82	1	2												146	*
146	14	-	3	2		-	2	In		12	86	0	2												231	*
145	13	-	4	2		-	2	In		9	83	2	6												456	*
144	13	-	4	3		-	1	In		5	83	5	6												792	*
143	13	-	3	3		-	2	In		4	80	6	9	0											1,391	*
142	12	-	4	3		-	2	In		2	74	10	14	0											2,150	*
141	12	-	3	3		-	3	In		1	66	13	20	0											3,385	*
140	12	-	3	4		-	2	In		1	56	18	25	0											4,903	*
139	11	-	4	4		-	2	In		0	44	22	33	1											7,112	*
138	11	-	3	4		-	3	In		0	33	25	39	3	0										9,937	*
137	10	-	4	4		-	3	In		0	22	28	43	6	0										13,354	*
136	10	-	4	5		-	2	In			14	28	46	11	1	0									17,428	*
135	10	-	3	5		-	3	In		0	8	25	46	18	2	0									22,127	*
134	9	-	4	5		-	3	In		0	4	22	41	26	6	1	0								27,279	*
133	9	-	3	5		-	4	In			2	17	33	34	12	2	0								32,498	*
132	9	-	3	6		-	3	100.0	%		1	13	23	38	21	5	0	0							37,847	*
131	8	-	4	6		-	3	99.9			0	9	13	35	30	11	2	0	0						42,194	*
130	8	-	3	6		-	4	99.5			0	5	6	26	36	20	5	1	0						46,218	*
129	8	-	3	7		-	3	97.9			0	3	3	16	35	30	11	2	0	0					48,791	*
128	7	-	4	7		-	3	93.5			0	2	1	8	27	35	21	6	1	0	0				50,067	*
127	7	-	3	7		-	4	84.5				1	0	3	16	33	31	13	3	0	0				50,264	*
126	7	-	3	8		-	3	69.2				0	0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1	0				48,902	*
125	6	-	4	8		-	3	50.6				0	0	0	3	15	32	31	15	3	0				46,163	*
124	6	-	3	8		-	4	31.4				0		0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0			42,348	*
123	6	-	3	9		-	3	16.4				0		0	0	3	13	31	33	16	3	0			37,723	*
122	5	-	4	9		-	3	7.4				0		0	0	1	6	23	35	26	8	1			32,624	*
121	5	-	3	9		-	4	2.5							0	0	2	13	32	34	16	2	0		27,539	*
120	5	-	3	10		-	3	0.7								0	1	6	24	38	26	5	0		22,112	*
119	5	-	2	10		-	4	0.2									0	3	14	37	35	11	0		17,424	*
118	4	-	3	10		-	4	0.0									0	1	8	29	43	19	1		13,477	*
117	4	-	3	11		-	3	0.0									0	0	3	21	45	29	1		9,857	*
116	4	-	2	11		-	4	Out										0	1	12	43	40	3		7,162	*
115	4	-	2	12		-	3	Out											1	7	36	50	6		4,839	*
114	3	-	3	12		-	3	Out											0	4	29	57	10		3,238	*
113	3	-	2	12		-	4	Out											0	1	20	63	15		2,126	*
112	3	-	2	13		-	3	Out												0	14	62	24		1,344	*
111	3	-	1	13		-	4	Out												0	8	61	31	0	826	*
110	2	-	2	13		-	4	Out													6	53	40	0	441	*
109	2	-	2	14		-	3	Out													4	46	49	1	222	*
108	2	-	1	14		-	4	Out													3	40	56	1	147	*
107	1	-	2	14		-	4	Out													3	29	64	4	69	*
106	1	-	2	15		-	3	Out														38	58	4	26	*
105	1	-	2	16		-	2	Out														25	70	5	20	*
104	0	-	2	15		-	4	Out														33	67		6	*
103	0	-	1	15		-	5	Out																100	1
102	0	-	2	17		-	2	Out														50	50		2	*
100	0	-	1	18		-	2	Out															100		1
96	0	-	0	21		-	0	Out															37	63	59

Total:								65.9	%	0	3	6	10	11	12	12	11	10	9	7	5	3	0	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Predators 0 Blackhawks 3	-1.2
Canucks 3 Blues 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Blues	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

159	21	-	0	0		-	0	75	14	12
153	18	-	1	1		-	1	100
151	16	-	3	1		-	1	25		75
150	15	-	4	1		-	1		47	53
149	14	-	5	1		-	1	4	15	81
148	14	-	4	1		-	2	4	21	69	4			1
147	15	-	2	2		-	2	1	14	72	10	1		2
146	14	-	3	2		-	2	0	11	78	8	0		2
145	13	-	4	2		-	2	1	9	70	13	2		6
144	13	-	4	3		-	1	0	5	67	16	5		6	0
143	13	-	3	3		-	2	0	4	59	21	6	0	9	0	0
142	12	-	4	3		-	2	0	2	48	26	10		12	2	0
141	12	-	3	3		-	3		1	37	29	12	0	17	3	0
140	12	-	3	4		-	2		1	27	29	17	1	20	5	0
139	11	-	4	4		-	2		0	18	26	20	2	24	8	1
138	11	-	3	4		-	3		0	10	23	22	3	26	12	3	0	0
137	10	-	4	4		-	3		0	5	17	23	5	26	17	6	0	0
136	10	-	4	5		-	2			2	12	21	7	24	22	11	0	1		0
135	10	-	3	5		-	3		0	1	7	16	9	20	27	17	1	2	0	0
134	9	-	4	5		-	3		0	0	3	12	10	13	27	24	2	6	0	1		0
133	9	-	3	5		-	4			0	2	7	10	8	25	29	6	12	0	2		0
132	9	-	3	6		-	3			0	1	4	8	4	19	28	10	21	0	5	0	0		0
131	8	-	4	6		-	3				0	2	7	1	12	22	13	29	1	11	0	2		0	0
130	8	-	3	6		-	4				0	1	4	0	6	13	13	33	3	20	0	5		1	0
129	8	-	3	7		-	3				0	0	3	0	2	6	10	29	6	30	0	11		2	0	0
128	7	-	4	7		-	3				0	0	2	0	1	2	6	20	7	35	1	21	0	6	1	0	0
127	7	-	3	7		-	4					0	1	0	0	0	3	10	6	32	2	31	0	13	3	0	0
126	7	-	3	8		-	3					0	0		0	0	1	4	4	22	2	35	0	23	7	1	0
125	6	-	4	8		-	3						0		0	0	0	1	2	13	3	31	0	31	15	3	0
124	6	-	3	8		-	4						0				0	0	1	5	2	23	1	35	25	8	1	0
123	6	-	3	9		-	3						0				0	0	0	2	1	13	1	31	33	16	3	0
122	5	-	4	9		-	3						0				0		0	0	0	6	1	22	35	26	8	1	0
121	5	-	3	9		-	4												0	0	0	2	1	13	32	34	16	2	0
120	5	-	3	10		-	3														0	0	0	6	22	38	27	6	0	0
119	5	-	2	10		-	4															0	0	2	13	34	35	14	2	0	0
118	4	-	3	10		-	4															0	0	1	6	25	39	24	5	1	0
117	4	-	3	11		-	3																0	0	2	15	36	34	11	2	0	0
116	4	-	2	11		-	4																	0	1	7	28	39	19	5	1	0
115	4	-	2	12		-	3																		0	3	17	35	29	13	3	0
114	3	-	3	12		-	3																		0	1	8	27	34	21	7	1	0
113	3	-	2	12		-	4																			0	3	17	32	31	14	3	0
112	3	-	2	13		-	3																				1	8	24	33	24	9	1	0
111	3	-	1	13		-	4																				0	4	14	30	31	18	4	0
110	2	-	2	13		-	4																					1	6	22	35	26	7	2	0
109	2	-	2	14		-	3																					0	1	14	34	35	13	2	0
108	2	-	1	14		-	4																					1	1	8	22	30	33	5	1
107	1	-	2	14		-	4																							6	19	26	28	16	4	1
106	1	-	2	15		-	3																								23	23	35	15	4
105	1	-	2	16		-	2																								5	30	20	40	5
104	0	-	2	15		-	4																									17	33	17	33
103	0	-	1	15		-	5																											100
102	0	-	2	17		-	2																										50		50
100	0	-	1	18		-	2																											100
96	0	-	0	21		-	0																											5	29	41	25

Total:								0	0	1	2	3	3	4	6	7	4	10	2	11	1	11	0	10	9	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0